James L. Perry

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Every major endowment, pension, and sovereign wealth fund is still buying. Credit spreads are benign. The problem isn't the market, it's retail investors who were sold products they didn't understand. I'm mad at the guys who put those deals together. Most portfolios will be fine.

The Fed is still in easing mode. Break-even rates dropped from 5.3% to below 3%. Anyone telling you inflation expectations are rising is talking their own book. I started as a bond trader — I follow the numbers, not the narrative.

A back-of-the-envelope analysis posted on X by billionaire tech investor David Sacks, suggesting that a one-gigawatt data center requires approximately fifty billion dollars in capital expenditure but generates twenty-five to thirty billion dollars in annual revenue for a two-year payback, drew both enthusiastic agreement and sharp methodological criticism from people who know the space. @JamesLPerry9, founder and chief investment officer of Perry International Capital Partners, joined @DanProft to offer his own assessment of whether the AI boom is real and where the genuine economic risks lie heading into Trump’s Beijing summit.

The AI Industrial Revolution Is Just Getting Started. Wall Street is financing it. The government calls it a matter of national security.

Six weeks in a row of gains. S&P up 17% from the March 30th lows, up 8% on the year. Q1 earnings growth came in at 27.1%, best quarter since the pandemic stimulus era. Mag 7 up 61%. The other 493 S&P members up 16%. Inflation expectations collapsing. Oil futures below $60. Three reasons this rally is real, and why I think it continues.

S&P up 13% from its March lows, NASDAQ up 15-16%, oil dropping from $120 toward the mid-60s. Iran's oil export machine is effectively shut down. Bitcoin up 30% from its lows. Cruise lines and airlines leading the market. The rally we called weeks ago is playing out, and earnings season is confirming it.

April 15th. The S&P and NASDAQ both hit all-time highs. Oil is down 30% from its peak. Peace probabilities in the Middle East are the highest they've been in two and a half months. Tech earnings expected to grow 45% this quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of 10%-plus S&P earnings growth. This rally has real legs. Here's what's driving it:

Things will escalate before they de-escalate. The ceasefire announcement moved markets, S&P up 8% from its lows, oil down 20% from its highs. Oil futures are pricing $55 a barrel 15 months out. Tech earnings expected to grow 45% in Q1. The foundation is strong. But we're still negotiating with thugs, and this probably needs one more escalation before it's resolved. Here's where Perry Capital is positioned.

We are no where near any of them... 1. No nukes. 2. Free flow through the Strait. 3. Control of Iranian oil exports. Until all three are verified, oil stays high and the global economy stays at risk.

Three conditions need to be met before this ends. 1. No nukes 2. Free flow through the Strait 3. Control of Iranian oil exports. We're nowhere near any of them. The S&P isn't rallying until oil comes down. Here's what has to happen first:

History is clear: you buy risk assets before the conflict ends, not after. The tricky part is timing. One thing we know for certain - until oil flows freely through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks stay vulnerable.

The Oil Market Is Predicting the End of This War. Oil futures are pricing crude back to $70 by September. The market is telling you hostilities end and supply flows again. That's the trade. Here's how I'm positioned.

Day 18 of hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Oil is at $95 and ticking lower and stocks are green. That inverse correlation is holding, and it's telling you something important. The oil market is pricing crude back down to $70 by September. If it's right, the trade is clear. Here's how I'm positioned and what I'm watching.

Day 7 of Operation Epic Fury. Oil just hit $90 a barrel, up 35% on the week, the biggest weekly move ever recorded. Iranian drone technology is taking out Gulf oil production. Here's what the three objectives of this operation actually are, what the markets are pricing in, and what you need to watch heading into next week.

Missiles are flying across the Middle East and one just hit Cyprus, a NATO member. Asia is opening lower, oil is up 10%, gold is up, and bitcoin is sliding into the low 60s. The Iranian regime isn't backing down. This isn't ending in days. Here's exactly where I'm positioned, and what I'm avoiding until the smoke clears.

It's Sunday night in the Western Hemisphere, and Monday morning in Asia. Markets are already reacting: oil up 10%, gold up 2%, the dollar pushing toward 99. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Kuwait have been hit by ballistic missiles. Three servicemen are dead. Operation Epic Fury isn't stopping anytime soon. Here's what it means for your portfolio right now.

The noise is loud, but the signal is clear. The Supreme Court's ruling on executive taxation power was a non-event for markets, just as expected. U.S. manufacturing is coming home, AI is reshaping the economy, and this bull market has legs. But not every stock wins. Know where the losers are hiding.

The Money Isn't Leaving the Market, It's Moving. Investors are rotating, not retreating. The DOW and S&P are within striking distance of all-time highs, profit margins are strong, and the consumer keeps spending. AI isn't destroying the job market, it's driving the next industrial revolution. Stay the course on big-cap tech and the companies winning the AI race.

The selloff has one cause: overpriced, inaccessible software in an AI-driven world that's moving fast. I'll tell you which companies are going to get hit hard, why this is not a bear market, and what the dollar's rally and gold's dip are telling us right now. Stay sharp.

The selloff isn't what you think. Money isn't leaving the market, it's rotating. In this video I break down why the Dow and S&P are still within 1-2% of all-time highs, what's actually driving the weakness in tech, and why this is not a bear market. Plus: AI, jobs, and where the smart money is going.