Jerry Capital

OPENAI TO MERGE CHATGPT, CODEX APP & BROWSER INTO DESKTOP SUPERAPP TO STREAMLINE RESOURCES & USER EXPERIENCE - WSJ

This is wild. People in *every single one* of the top US allies now think it's better to depend on China than the US. The global balance of power is clearly tilting away from the US and toward China.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admits that while there are signs “cracks” appear to be forming in the Iranian Regime, it is possible that the regime will indeed survive the ongoing Iran War.

You can just see in each of these headlines the mess we have created with this war.

BESSENT: U.S. MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL ON WATER IN COMING DAYS -FOX BUSINESS NETWORK INTERVIEW

During an ongoing Pentagon press briefing with U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and CJCS General Dan Caine, Secretary Hegseth said that today with be the heaviest day of strikes against Iran.

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…