Stephen Johnson

March -$1.5k Just like that 6 months of trading back in the books. Biotechs are some of the first to lose when an unexpected war occurs. I did well tilting my portfolio into metals and defence and developed a good intro level knowledge of bonds and $ vs DXY this month. Should have cut a lot of stocks a lot earlier I thought metals would have been safer but they collapsed with the rest. Also had the ridiculous idea of buying oil companies thinking they'd be hot but they weren't making any money since they weren't selling any oil. Otherwise $1.5k is a pretty good loss considering green months have been $4/5kish. I'm well positioned now to profit well into any bounce with metals and beaten down tech before averaging back into biotechs. I still have my A+ set ups in biotech $RZLT still being my fav. $VSTM and $MIST I think need a bit more time but they're going to have their day possibly with $RARE too.

@Wayne17049411 @KobeissiLetter Imagine how sad and terrible it must be to be this thick and ignorant - for sure this guy has some call centre or insurance job if even a job at all

@KobeissiLetter Obama was a Muslim terrorist disguised as a liberal moderate. He has committed treason by trying to throw the 2020 election to a brain dead candidate and succeeded to the detriment of the USA Upon guilt a hanging is mandated by law. Listen to the facts Correct libtards?

BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement on the deal that he says is being made with Iran.

Decent KMs for two months from half Marathon. Distance achieved. Just gotta work on pace now.

On Sept 3, 1929 the Dow closed at $381. It dropped and didn’t reach that level again for 25 years. Cautionary tale for pension funds and those buying the dip. Can it really not happen again? Market was more volatile then, we don’t see 10% index gains in a month on SPY now.

@Bebe1969 If you go to most places in Europe he is hated

I'm in Milan Italy. Italians hate Trump.

@drewcrawford_ The best investment I’ve found in Brazil is in buying their debt.

For twelve years, I've operated between the U.S. and Brazil. The number one thing Americans get wrong about this country is thinking it's a single market. São Paulo is New York. The south is the industrial Midwest with better weather. The Northeast & MATOPIBA is the frontier West before the railroads arrived. The Amazon is a logistics economy built almost entirely on rivers. Rio is... Rio. Each region has different tax structures, different labor dynamics, different infrastructure constraints, and completely different risk profiles. Treating "Brazil" as one investment thesis is like treating "the United States" as one city. The investors who win here are the ones who pick a geography, go deep, and build relationships that take years to develop. There are no shortcuts.

Trading goings pretty well. But it’s taken too long to make any money. Mostly, as I continue to learn with age, I see that a lot of my problem is was my mindset. I think I wanted to be right too much, to talk more than listen. I wasn’t open enough or giving credit enough to enough other people to see how they do it. Me being right was more important than being right. That sad, it’s an ego thing. But eventually, the more I’ve learned I’ve got the knowledge in the end the hard way.

I’ve been doing interviews with traders since as far back as 2018 - most recently on the Kinfo podcast. Every interview has a learning or two but my recent podcast with @Xavier_comas made me see charts in a different way. His execution style is wild, but there’s method behind the madness. Imagine? Looking at charts for 10 years the same way then one day they change. Xavi is not trying to predict the market. He’s constantly asking: “am I wrong right now?” And if he is, he flips. No ego or attachment. No need to be right. Another line that stuck with me: “I can be wrong in my thesis and still make money.” That sounds simple, but almost no-one trades like that. One reason why I think Xavier is so successful in comparison to other traders is that he can let go of a losing idea. Rapidly. That’s the edge. Watch the full interview to see Xavi walk his live trading examples and to see for yourself, the method behind the madness: youtube.com/watch?v=KrSEp1… @Jonk87

@miguel_milhao @pmddomingos Agree and think as a group not individually

@pmddomingos People that think about the future more than the present.

Brazil could be a superpower, except it’s missing . . . what?

@pmddomingos Low interest rates

I read 30/35 tankers of Oil and food usually go in and out of Irans docks. Since yesterday only two have crossed. A deal must be nearing as Iran has lost its only bargaining chip unless it lets its country implode. Markets already pricing it through with the USD, Yields and oil all dropping.

Number one story on CNBC tonight. @felixprehn was talking about this in a video 3 weeks ago.

$IMUX ($1.09) and $ALLO ($2.24) two pretty decent companies going for big discounts for a few reasons today. They're a steal at these prices. I'll revisit this tweet in 6 months.

@KobeissiLetter A lot of amateurs lost money and a lot of experienced people made money.

Absolutely incredible: The S&P 500 is now officially UP on the year and just ~1% away from hitting a new record high. Since March 30th, the S&P 500 has now added +$5.5 TRILLION in market cap. That's +$550 billion per trading day for 10-straight trading days. The reality is that inflation is rising toward 4%, the AI Revolution is only accelerating, and trillions of Dollars of sidelined capital are eager to enter the market. This truly is one of the most resilient markets in history. Own assets or be left behind.

@dr_silas_xbt Ouch - not taking profits up there?

@Jonk87 took a L with the crash on the ceasefire.

The Irish are taking their country back. 🇮🇪

@drewcrawford_ That’s the worry - record surpluses but debt to gpt still rising despite it due to interest. I’m not arguing here I’m trying to learn, I’ve been reading about debt cycles by ray dalio recently

The debt is ~87% of GDP (IMF gross) and overwhelmingly BRL-denominated (fiscal management risk, not external default risk). Brazil posted three of the largest trade surpluses in its recorded history consecutively: $99B in 2023, $75B in 2024, $68B in 2025. FX reserves sit at $360B. The export base (soy, iron ore, oil, beef, pulp) hit an all-time volume record in 2025.. and will have an even bigger year in 2026 with everything going on in the world right now. MATOPIBA alone adds millions of productive hectares per decade. The Selic compresses consumption. Production keeps running. Brazil's problem is political. The land doesn't care.

Things you used today that were probably made in Brazil: The coffee you drank this morning. Brazil has been the world's #1 producer for over 150 years. It grows more than the next two countries combined. The orange juice at breakfast. Brazil supplies about 75% of the world's oranges used for orange juice. Florida's production has declined 92% in two decades. The chicken in your lunch. Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter. Approximately one out of every three pieces of chicken traded internationally comes from a Brazilian processing plant. The steak at dinner. Brazil is the world's largest beef exporter. $18 billion in revenue in 2025. Up 40% in a single year. The sugar in your drink. Brazil is the world's largest sugar exporter. It also converts that sugar into ethanol and blends it into fuel. The paper towel you threw away. Suzano, headquartered in São Paulo, is the world's largest pulp producer. Brazilian eucalyptus grows to harvest in 7 years. Scandinavian pine takes 25. The leather in your shoes. Brazil has approximately 232 million head of cattle. More cattle than people in every country in Europe. The iron in the steel frame of the building you're sitting in. Brazil is one of the largest iron ore exporters on earth. It shipped over 400 million tonnes in 2025. The niobium in the alloy that makes your car lighter and stronger. Brazil controls 94% of global niobium reserves. Primarily from Minas Gerais. The soy meal that fed the animal you ate. Brazil exported 108.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025. More than any country in history has ever exported in a single year. The airplane you flew on last week. Embraer E-Jets make up about half of all regional jets flying for American, Delta, United, and Alaska. Built in São José dos Campos, Brazil. The phone in your pocket might have been assembled in Manaus, where Samsung, LG, and Panasonic operate factories inside the Amazon rainforest. Brazil is in your morning coffee. Your lunch. Your dinner. Your clothes. Your buildings. Your car. Your airplane. Your phone. It touches your life a dozen times a day. You just never see the label. The most influential country in your daily life is the one you think about the least.

@drewcrawford_ Least tourism is up in Brazil - should make currency a bit more stable. And dollar is done - gold is the path there.

Every time someone mentions Brazil, you hear the same things... Corrupt politicians. Currency that crashes every decade. Bureaucracy that takes years to navigate. Crime in the cities. Infrastructure that never gets finished. Tax rates that make no sense. They are not wrong. All of that is real. But here is what they are missing. The US dollar has lost 25% of its purchasing power since 2020. American politicians just added $36 trillion in debt. US infrastructure is crumbling and takes decades to fix. Crime in American cities is at historic highs. The S&P 500 trades at 21x earnings. Brazil trades at 9x. Brazil has 12% of all the fresh water on earth. It grows enough food to feed a billion people. It makes 87% of its electricity from clean sources at half the American cost. It holds 94% of the world's niobium. It has the second largest reserves of rare earths and graphite on the planet. Less than half its territory has ever been properly surveyed for minerals. Every problem Brazil has is a problem of governance. Governance changes. The water does not disappear. The minerals do not move. The farmland does not shrink. The investors who figured out America in 1950 did not wait for it to be perfect. They bought the endowment. The question is not whether Brazil will get its act together. The question is whether you are positioned before it does.

@EhrmantrautCap_ @KobeissiLetter Less only two ships passing through anyway only thing this destroys is the Iranians

@KobeissiLetter Great solution, blockade the Strait of Hormuz even more so the global energy crisis gets worse.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US Navy will begin "blockading any and all ships" trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. "Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be blown to hell," he says.

@Leurico8 @drewcrawford_ No why

@Jonk87 @drewcrawford_ You live in RIO and you think brazilias deserve to be wealthy?! Your are shitting me