WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325 Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time. Key Takeaway ⬇️ Russia may begin to mobilize members of Russia’s active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine, but it is unlikely to conduct a large-scale involuntary reserve mobilization to expand the size of the Russian military dramatically at this time. The creation of a mechanism for small, rolling mobilizations would be a major inflection in Russia’s force generation strategy, which so far has sought to generate recruits through growing financial incentives and sign-up bonuses to avoid mass compulsory mobilization after the challenging involuntary reserve call up of late 2022. The Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity passed a new draft amendment that effectively removes the current legal barriers against deploying reservists to combat in the absence of an officially declared mobilization or war. Russia’s existing “pay-to-play” system for generating recruits is likely hitting diminishing returns and is forcing the Kremlin to adopt a different approach using rolling compulsory mobilization of reservists to sustain its manpower in the face of its continuing high casualty rate in Ukraine.
