Kintsugi (@Kintsugixyz) - Twitter پروفائل

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·20 Haz

rangebound BTC, rising dominance, and bleeding Alts since 5/21 (scenario 2) despite pockets of outperformance: HYPE, MKR, JTO, USELESS, most Alts struggling vs BTC next major risk on regime likely triggered by a BTC breakout to $120k+

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz

Since the last drop in BTC dominance (ending 5/13), Alts have struggled to keep pace as BTC climbed to its highest daily close what's next? 1/ BTC breakout w decreasing dominance 2/ rangebound btc w rising dominance 3/ BTC breakdown w rising dominance 4/ something else?

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·21 May

Since the last drop in BTC dominance (ending 5/13), Alts have struggled to keep pace as BTC climbed to its highest daily close what's next? 1/ BTC breakout w decreasing dominance 2/ rangebound btc w rising dominance 3/ BTC breakdown w rising dominance 4/ something else?

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz

BTC.d returns to May 9th level when BTC started this move from $75k. Since then OTHERS moved a similar magnitude as BTC (44% vs 38%). On the lookout for continuation down in BTC.d and OTHERS up if BTC holds at or above this level. Otherwise, Alt strength could be short lived.

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·9 May

@tradermatt 💯 ive setup a separate countertrend wallet (w much smaller allocation) to keep primary trend aligned trading separate from reversal trading it may end up serving more as a hedging vehicle for long term positions but will see how it evolves

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Matt@tradermatt·9 May

if you anticipate a retrace in the market, i've always found it better to wait for it to occur and then trade in line with the overall trend once the retrace is exhausted trading the retrace is lower rr and lower strike rate in my experience patience is key

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·9 May

BTC.d returns to May 9th level when BTC started this move from $75k. Since then OTHERS moved a similar magnitude as BTC (44% vs 38%). On the lookout for continuation down in BTC.d and OTHERS up if BTC holds at or above this level. Otherwise, Alt strength could be short lived.

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·8 May

@Trader_XO agree on ETHBTC and BTC.d implications re. stablecoin dom ... does decreasing mean investors spending stables for risk? or does it mean TOTAL is growing faster than stablecoin float (ie. fiat isnt onramping fast enough to absorb growing demand for high vol crypto risk)?

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XO@Trader_XO·8 May

$ETH :: $ETHBTC :: Alts Only a select few altcoins have shown upside and its questionable if they're topping out here or not ? Meanwhile the majority have sold off sharply from their December highs and are now trading near their respective cycle lows. It only takes 4-6 weeks for alts to print some significant moves back up on thin books, wiping out months of selling, and should that happen I'd like to see the following playout collectively to support that - At some point ETHBTC catches a bid - BTC dominance starts dropping off from current levels - Stablecoin dominance suggests risk on appetite remains as opposed to money flowing back into stables. When all three factors align, I like to think it creates a high-probability window of opportunity in altcoins. For now I think its quite probable Eth may very well trade up into 2k - 2.1k, possibly higher if ethbtc starts pushing and the overall markets dont go to shit for the next month or so, if they do then Q3 probably presents some brilliant buying opportunities. Cheers

XO@Trader_XO

$ETH Should Ethereum begin to establish a multi-month range / substantial base, then I'd certainly be interested as a buyer from a positional point of view. Price at the lower bounds of the macro range = opportunity!

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·23 Nis

is the decoupling in the room with us now? since Jan 23rd (3 months ago): BTC down 10% NASDAQ down 14% S&P down 11%

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·3 Nis

8 NASDAQ drawdowns of larger magnitude than current one since GFC 15 yrs ago

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·2 Nis

where next?

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz

✅ next target $87k $80k first?

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·29 Mar

@SailorManCrypto on which timeframe are you following trend? ENA feels like it could be bottoming here tougher to argue uptrend yet tho?

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Popeye@SailorManCrypto·29 Mar

Both my $NEAR and $ENA longs are filled. Structure wise they are still in bullish territory so worth a try imho. Market will decide what’s next for alts, but for my style is worth to try to follow the trend as long as it last.

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·29 Mar

✅ next target $87k $80k first?

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz

liquidation wick incoming

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·28 Mar

liquidation wick incoming

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·21 Mar

@tradermatt uncertainty is what if this is the similarity

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Matt@tradermatt·21 Mar

bitcoin daily chart you've probably noticed it but this chart is looking pretty similar to 2021

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·21 Mar

memecoin utility in the degen casino BTC up 2.5% SOL up 3.5% MKR up 7.5% FARTCOIN up 16.4%

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·21 Mar

@blknoiz06 heard a v successful trader who manages OPM and personal funds describe it as an asymmetric call option on performance relative to trading personal funds, ie. capped downside while preserving upside

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Ansem@blknoiz06·21 Mar

arguing w someone that best traders wouldnt work for anyone bc if they have bankroll can easily print themselves more than any salary + freedom of working whenever you want other side is saying salary+benefits+structure lets you do same work w/ bonus upside what does CT think

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·3 Mar

recent drawdown of similar magnitude to drawdowns during feb to oct '24 range

Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz

BTC closed down more than current level on 49 out of 219 days during Feb-Oct ‘24 range $72k would be a 34% drawdown from current range high and comparable to max drawdown in Feb-Oct ‘24 range; Currently down 21% from range high

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·25 Şub

the corrections just werent as deep back in 2017

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·25 Şub

shorter consolidation ranges in 2021 bull market but similar drawdown magnitude and frequency

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·25 Şub

BTC closed down more than current level on 49 out of 219 days during Feb-Oct ‘24 range $72k would be a 34% drawdown from current range high and comparable to max drawdown in Feb-Oct ‘24 range; Currently down 21% from range high

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·25 Şub

@cburniske currently less than 20% down from range high; repeating 34% drawdown from feb-oct '24 range high results in ~$72k BTC

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Chris Burniske@cburniske·25 Şub

In the middle of 2021: $BTC drew down 56% $ETH drew down 61% $SOL drew down 67% Many others 70-80%+ You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we're going through isn't unprecedented. Those calling for a full blown bear are misguided.

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Kintsugi@Kintsugixyz·17 Şub

@johnennis for all its shortcomings, it's been strong during bitcoin rallies -- even if noticeably less strong during oct-dec24 rally (underperforming alt index) vs nov-mar24 (3x outperforming alt index)

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