
Kreg
241 posts





It’s time for Proof Of Human.





STRATEGIC STOCKPILING "When the world feels insecure, it hoards. The 1979 Iranian Revolution proved the pattern. The physical shortfall was 1.5–2 million b/d net of Saudi offsets, roughly 4–5% of global supply. But precautionary hoarding doubled the effective demand impact to 3–4 million b/d at the peak of the panic(Kilian, 2009). Prices rose from $13/bbl in mid-1979 to $34/bbl by mid-1980, a response wildly disproportionate to the physical loss. Zhou (2020), building on Kilian and Murphy (2014), estimates that precautionary storage demand raised the real price of oil by at least 20% between May and December 1979 —after Iranian production had already recovered. Applying a short-run demand elasticity of −0.1 to the 63 million b/d market of 1979 implies roughly 1–1.5 million b/d of hoarding demand. Scaled to today’s 103 million b/d market, acomparable response would be 2–3 million b/d. One could argue the response should be larger still: in The New Joule Order, geopolitical anxiety around crude flows is structurally higher, and the United States is no longer as incentivised to defend the global oil trade as it once was." (c) Jeff Currie & James Gutman. PS Getting ready to hear more on how oil is going back to 60 very soon.





#BREAKING 🇺🇸United Airlines CEO just told employees the quiet part out loud: Oil hitting $175/barrel. Not back to $100 until end of 2027. That’s not a crisis projection. That’s a 2-year business plan built around permanent energy disruption. SAS already cancelled 1,000 flights. More European carriers following. Now America’s second-largest airline is planning for $175 oil as the baseline. Airlines run on 2-3% margins. Fuel is 20-25% of costs. The Iran war doesn’t end when the bombs stop. United Airlines just told its employees it lasts until at least 2028.














