
Matt March
158 posts



If we ignore $MRK & $JNJ private jet trips to CLT & only count RDU. MRK has been to RDU twice, most recent trip being 3/9. JNJ has been there 11 times. Most recent trip being 4/9. Don't think there were any conferences in Raleigh. I wonder what the trips could have been about. Numbers are much higher if we factor in CLT airport. On a totally unrelated note, $LQDA office is a 10min drive from RDU. On an even more unrelated note, they reported 4Q on 3/5. cc: @BlueDuckCap







By our estimates, $LQDA exceeded 4,000 scripts on April 1st, which puts annualized revenue (85% compliance at 235k and ignore the 1 month free) at $800mm - that gets you to $4-$5 in annualized earnings at the start of Q1. We could very well see +$10 next year for 2027. Now of course this incredibly profitable growth trajectory (who else has seen a product launch like this in the history of their investing careers) is obscured by the litigation overhang. Judge Andrews went passed the March 31st deadline, which many felt he would not do. Given the bench trial was in June and there was expedited briefing, the original timing was expected in September/October and we are now in April - so what gives? It is hard not to look at this as at the very least a slight positive to extreme positive tell for $LQDA. He asked for expedited briefing and if he wanted to rule against $LQDA, he would have done so quickly to get to the remedy stage quickly and have the least amount of effect on patients. We are now at the stage where there are several thousand vey sick patients on this drug and if anything were to happen to them it would be a national news story. It appears less and less likely that Andrews is set to do something that would be very disruptive. It appears more likely instead that we see a clean win for $LQDA and that view was bolstered by this recent Amazon opinion that he put out which was 50 plus pages. In this decision, Andrews spoke to this idea of forfeiture and this ties directly to the $LQDA case. Amazon like $UTHR tried to make an argument after the fact - in $UTHR's case they did it in their subsequent briefing rather than at trial. They had a burden of production, that is to come up with all of their best arguments on an issue, which they clearly did not meet (they just had Dr. Byrd speak off hand in a cursory manner). They met that burden of production after the fact but not in the interregnum or in the trial, which is what we you are supposed to do. Our thinking is that given the $AMZN case was a bit older and he needed to spoke to a similar issue as the $LQDA case, he wants to get through it first before speaking on $LQDA. It has been very hard to predict timing, so we will not try, but we could still very well see a ruling here for $LQDA in the next two weeks now that he has his $AMZN opinion on it and the structure of that ruling will look similar.

5000 packages of peptides seized by CBP and FDA “The seized materials included several GLP-one medications such as retatrutide, semaglutide, and tirzepatide. Officers also found various other peptides prohibited by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, including MOTS-C, TB10, semax, and cagrilintide.” whio.com/news/5k-shipme…




Last day of hopium for the $LQDA ruling before it hits the list of despair When will Andrews rule?











