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🏀 PK Dish #2 (3/21)
🍽️ 𝐒𝐚𝐦 𝐌𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝟗.𝟓 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 (-𝟏𝟐𝟎)
Cooked w/ @ChronicBets 🤝@DDOGGSTACKS
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
• Merrill already showed success in this exact matchup earlier this season, dropping 22 points vs New Orleans on 7/12 shooting and 6/10 from three.
• This is a perfect schematic matchup for how Merrill generates his offense. Looking at the Pels defensive data, they rank:
– 29th vs SG points
– 25th vs catch & shoot
– 27th vs restricted area defense
– 24th in overall defensive rating
This is perfect for Merrill as 64% of his shots come from above-the-break threes and 63% are catch & shoot looks which is exactly where New Orleans has struggled defensively this season.
• His scoring profile aligns clean across the board:
📈 38% of his points come from spot-up → Pelicans rank 21st
📈 17% in transition → Pelicans rank 27th
• We’ve consistently seen similar archetype players clear in this spot:
✅ Luke Kennard: 9 Pts (Line: 8.5)
✅ Moses Moody: 24 pts (Line: 16.5)
✅ AJ Green: 20 Points (Line: 11.5)
✅ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 11 pts (Line: 8.5)
✅ Vince Williams Jr.: 13 pts (Line: 7.5)
✅ Isaiah Joe: 17 pts (Line: 12.5)
✅ Lu Dort: 12 pts (Line: 10.5)
• Without Craig Porter Jr, Merrill is 8/8 to the over this season, averaging 13.4 PPG in those games.
• Cleveland is also without Tyrese Proctor, while Jaylon Tyson and Donovan Mitchell are questionable which could open up even more of a clear path for Merrill to take on additional scoring responsibility alongside Mobley and Harden.
• Between elite role splits, perfect shot profile, and a defense ranking near the bottom in every area Merrill attacks, he has multiple paths to clear this number once again.
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