MichaelJMurphy

JUST IN: We have obtained @CFTC approval to operate America's first federally regulated sports-native prediction market!

@WhiteHouse How many times are we going to do this? If the Iranians are talking they are lying, why is this so hard to figure out?

🚨 President Donald J. Trump on cancelled scheduled strikes against Iran.

The last 2 "Berlin Walls" against prediction markets have begun to crack. The @NCAA is holding informal conversations with prediction markets (reported here) and the NFL is reviewing the CFTC's proposed new rules 🔽

I talk to a lot of startups in prediction markets, and the biggest advice I can give: Don’t build something assuming you’ll get acquired. Investors should know this too. If Kalshi or Polymarket can build it internally in 1–2 months, you don’t have a company… you have a feature. The biggest opportunities aren’t layers on top of prediction markets. They’re businesses that use prediction markets to solve problems in other industries

@BlondiePredicts @hivy_alpha @DealFlowPREDICT Planning to attend!

@MichaelJMurphy @hivy_alpha There will be proper buzz at Predict conference @DealFlowPREDICT later this year

Walking around SBC with a prediction markets badge and getting dirty looks from people wearing gaming commission badges. This is objectively hilarious

@hivy_alpha @BlondiePredicts Expected more PM buzz here to be honest.

@BlondiePredicts Conference worthwhile for PM believers?

Yep.

Research Brief: Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction Markets Key Findings: - $ 11-27B of Polymarket volume May 2025-April 2026 is attributed to U.S. users - $ 11-34B of all offshore volume came from U.S. users Full report below: cranezeng.com/prediction-mar…

Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane pitched to Mass. regulators to permit sportsbook operators with prediction markets (FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics) to be able to offer both, arguing it would expand the player base and generate more state tax revenue, Kane said during today's SBC Summit

Sports betting stocks rallied today on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules. “The market is beginning to digest that DraftKings and Flutter could benefit from prediction markets,” @OPReport tells me. “Anything that provides a reasonable path to total addressable market expansion for DraftKings and Flutter in the U.S. is likely to serve as a net tailwind for the stock."

Interesting ads for Draft Kings, available nationwide. No mention of PM or sports book Wonder what @mattkalish thinks of the approach

It is no coincidence that major media outlets, exchanges, and financial institutions are increasingly turning to prediction markets. When people have real skin in the game, the data follows, and that is the wisdom of the crowds at work. Watch now⬇️

@AmericanGenXer @AmericanAir You are missing the placement of the outrage, in no scenario should I have been separated from the people I was caring for. There is always risk of delays, weather, etc. In fact, our first flight landed 24 minutes early. We had plenty of time if the wheelchairs were there.

Airlines are sometimes quite deserving of the scorn they receive. This situation is not one of those cases. OP booked an itinerary to get a specific event, but with little tolerance for delays. What if there had been an hour or two of weather causing the delay, instead of the situation OP encountered? And then on top of the tight scheduling, OP booked a 1 hour and 15 minute layover at one of the country's busiest airports. I won't even mention taking dementia-suffering people to a funeral in the first place. OP's situation is unfortunate, but I'll save my outrage for situations that warrant it.

Tonight I feel like telling my @AmericanAir story, because they deserve it. My parents both have dementia, actually my Dad has Alzheimers and my Mom has dementia. When they needed to get to a funeral for a family member, it was clear someone from the family needed to chaperone them to ensure safe travel, and I was happy to do that. I booked the tickets, for the three of us, and booked wheelchair service for our American Airlines flight from Madison WI to Grand Junction CO. When looking for flights, my only goal was to find the most convenient flight for my parents - to limit the stress of flying, traveling, in unknown places. Typically, a United flight from MSN to Denver would be the path, with a quick jump to Grand Junction. For the time of our flights, that would mean a six hour layover. instead, I chose to fly MSN to DFW, with a one hour and 15 minute layover. In @MSN_Airport our wheelchairs were there, as expected, and as booked. Being slightly nervous about our shorter connection, I asked the agents to call ahead to DFW and double check if our wheelchairs would be there, I personally overhead this call and was assured they would be there. They were not. And this is where things start to fall apart, get dangerous, and then fall apart again. Our wheelchairs were not there, terminal C, we needed to get to B1. 35 minutes later, still no wheelchair - my parents (both with dementia) were allowed to get on a golf cart, to try and make the flight. I was not allowed to go with them, because I was not "disabled". This meant my parents, who have me along purely to chaperone, were seperated from me - no clue what was going on, and I had to run - physically - to try and meet them at the gate. We missed our flight, and as a result, missed our family funeral visitation - the sole purpose of the flight. A couple things make this worse: 1. Once dropped at B1, and missing our flight - we still had no wheelchairs, and the golf cart left. The flight was already gone, because we were significantly late. Abandoned is the word I'd use, because a gate agent rebooked us on a flight out of gate B28, six hours later, without bothering to care we needed a way to get there - and that walk is significant. We waited another HOUR, and got one wheelchair. Two hours later we finally had the two wheelchairs we booked. Nothing can replace what we went through, dangerous - fear and stress - and most importantly, a missed funeral. Americans response to this? First they offered a voucher for lunch. I declined. Next, I emailed this story to the CEO Robert Ison, who thought he could buy us for a $250 credit. The kicker to all this? While in the air on our first flight.....American was trying to buy our seats because they oversold it, for $450 a seat. We obviously didn't accept this, because we wanted to get to the family funeral - the whole reason for our travel! So us not taking the $450 offer per seat, meant we missed our flight, missed the funeral, experienced extreme amounts of stress - and somehow that is owrth $250 to American Airlines. I don't want a single penny from this company, I don't want flight credits - I honestly never want to fly with them again. What I do want? For others to hear this story, for them to formally apologize to my parents, and for some type of penalty to be applied to them that is significant enough they can never treat another customer like this, ever again.

@bergesonmt @AmericanAir This is definitely partly true, we accepted the risk of a delay - but I don't accept the wheelchairs not being there, the stress that caused, and being dangerously seperated.

@MichaelJMurphy @AmericanAir Way too many things could have upended that 75 min layover at one of the busiest hubs in the world. This was naive on your part to rely on so many others to handle your complicated travel plan to make all the stars align in midst of summer busy and weather. Sorry this happened

@tutueme @AmericanAir This is somewhat true, and there was certainly some risk of being late if anything happened - but if the wheelchairs were there as expected, we would have made this flight with plenty of time to spare.

I am sorry for your stressful situation. A 1:15 layover is not enough for the situation of your flight, considering boarding time is usually 30 minutes before departure, and gates close 10 to 15 minutes before departure. A close connection does not account for bad weather or clogged runways. A better, less stressful option would be to travel to your connection point the day before, stay overnight in a hotel, and be fresh for one flight to Grand Junction. The six hour layover would certainly be stressful for you. Wheelchair availability is very flexible throughout the day, so I would not be surprised if there was not two wheelchairs three hours after your flight left.

@GoMomGo3 @RichRichg99 @AmericanAir You book the wheelchair service with your ticket. That makes it clearly the airlines responsibility in my opinion.

@RichRichg99 @MichaelJMurphy @AmericanAir It has nothing to do with the airline itself. Please stop trashing the airline without full knowledge of how things work.

Much of the nation didn’t realize it was the Belmont Stakes today. It’s the second time in three years that a horse won the first and third leg of the Triple Crown after sitting out the second. Time to go back to the $5M Triple Crown bonus.