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We'll Meet Again, Don't Know Where, Don't Know When
Modern Fitba says goodbye for now.
modernfitba.com/blogs/2021/5/1…
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Modern Fitba
1.9K posts
Modern Fitba
@ModernFitba
In-depth statistical and tactical analysis of Scottish football.
Scotland, United Kingdom شامل ہوئے Şubat 2018
289 فالونگ7.9K فالوورز
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So I've been in the #ggplot2 lab, trying something my fellow @ModernFitba-er @fitbainscotland did for us at MF with xG graphs. Instead of the a line graph, Jamie used bar graphs. Trying it out again here.
xG bar graphs and shot maps for @CelticFC's 3-0 win at @LiviFCOfficial
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Season review for @KilmarnockFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.
On Matchday 14 (Oct 29th), Killie lost to St Johnstone 1-0 on a 4th minute own goal by Ash Taylor.
They had earned only 29% of available points. Two weeks later they were in last
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Season review for @dundeeunitedfc comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected
Each of the 3 managers tenures are marked
The model mirrored the actual results all season long - basically the team was as bad as their underlying numbers said they were
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Season review for @RossCounty comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.
Not much to say here...the model NEVER strayed more than 3 points away from Ross County's final point total of 34 points & the team's actual pace was just as consistent since January
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Season review for @StJohnstone comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.
For most of 6 months, the model had them within 3 points of its final total. A bad April dragged the projections down. Only 1 loss after the split spurred the team back to 43 pts
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Season review for @LiviFCOfficial comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.
Interestingly, despite a good start to the season...the model rarely projected beyond 3 points of their eventual point total of 46, while the actual pt rate fluctuated for months
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Season review for @MotherwellFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.
Stuart Kettlewell took over following matchday 26. While the results & underlying numbers did improve, it wasn't until after the split that they actually outpaced earlier results
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Quick thread on @RangersFC season
Rangers Report@TheGersReport
Season review for @RangersFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected After a 4-1 win over Aberdeen in Matchday 12, Gio's Rangers were on pace for 92 points & had earned 81% of the available points. The model suggested they should have only earned 72%
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Presented without (much) comment...here's the season review for Celtic comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected
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Thread looking at @HibernianFC
Rangers Report@TheGersReport
Season review for @HibernianFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected On Nov 12th (matchday 16), they lost 1-0 to Killie & had lost 6 of their last 7 At that point they'd earned 42% of the available points The model suggested they should've earned 53%
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Thread from earlier…this one looking at @saintmirrenfc
Rangers Report@TheGersReport
Here's a look back at season for @saintmirrenfc On October 22nd (matchday 11), they celebrated a 2-1 win over @dundeeunitedfc & sat 4th in the table. They had earned 58% of the possible points...but my model suggested they should have only earned 42% of the points @DJ_Nicol
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Updated Projected League Table
Only 3 clubs have seen a 4 point or more shift in their projected points since the World Cup break.
@JamTarts +5.19
@RangersFC +4.93
@AberdeenFC -7.72
Other notables:
Celtic +1.05
@dundeeunitedfc +3.24
@RossCounty -3.92
@KilmarnockFC +0.69 😏
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Updated Projected League Table
The margins at the bottom of the table are starting to get smaller for that automatic relegation spot between @RossCounty & @dundeeunitedfc
It will also be interesting to see if the model's belief in @HibernianFC actually comes to fruition.
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Please keep a lookout for Michael if you’re in Scotland.
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Shot locations hexbins for @SPFL Premiership Clubs five matches into the season.
The lighter the color of the hexbin, the more shots your favorite team has taken there.
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Thanks for finding our work interesting Chris. Good luck heading back to France.
Chris Jullien..@Chri6ViF
@ModernFitba @fitbainscotland Interesting 😉
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Chart mapping where each @eliteserien club has gotten open play shots this season. The lighter the fill of the hexbin, the more shots from that area for each club.
@vikingfotball lead #eliteserien in xG for and are getting plenty of opportunities in the middle of the box.
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