Chip Chapman

Total means x strength of Will = the power of resistance. I used this for Ukraine, but it is equally applicable to all wars where ‘clash of wills’ - the moral component of fighting power, has such an impact. Strength of Will is also v difficult to measure! #IranWar‌

“A ship’s a fool to fight a fort” That ‘fort’ is Iran’s A2/AD (anti-access/anti denial capabilities). Until they are dealt with - either by kinetic action or negotiation, Iran holds de facto sea denial over shipping. And that’s unlikely to be change in the next 2 weeks

Remember Gen Miley’s ‘5 myths that we need to let go included: - You can win wars fm afar just by dropping ordnance (You can’t) - Armies fight wars (they don’t, nations fight wars) Will they fight, how well will they fight & how long are variables NK at the start #IranWar‌

“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan”. This will play out in the next month - but one side will claim tactical victory, the other strategic. We don’t know who though - war is complex with many variables: it’s not merely counting targets hit

@barryharrisMBE That’s very reassuring!

@NotesFASMil Shirt sleeve order has started, otherwise all quiet 😉

I’ve been ‘off grid” in Australia for the last 5 weeks. Did anything happen of note in the world?

@TimesRadio @wrightr @cathynewman The irony is that it was Trump who rescinded the patiently negotiated JCPOA - and I use the word ‘patiently’ v deliberately.

“We’re a long way off before anyone expects some kind of grand deal.” The danger is there is a “flashpoint” that leads the US to strike Iran before Trump and Witkoff can make a deal equivalent to the JCPOA, says the US Institute of Peace's Robin Wright. @wrightr | @CathyNewman

@NiohBerg ‘Striking hard’ is not an outcome - and that’s always been the problem of compelling Iran when the bar for the regime is very low - survival.

At this stage, Trump actually needs to strike not only for the sake of his promise to Iran, but for his own survival. Otherwise, history will show that Khamenei: • Spat in Trump's face • Ignored his red line, committed a genocide • Exploited Witkoff and Araghchi's friendship to set the stage for "negotiations" • Then managed to narrow these talks down to a nuclear deal which was never the issue • Then somehow forced the US to agree to changing locations from Turkey to Oman • And all this while sending drones towards USS Abraham Lincoln and harassing American flagged vessels with gunboats • While also literally threatening to murder Trump on regime state TV Right now it looks as if a third world barbarian dictatorship is holding all the cards and setting the terms and conditions for the most powerful man on Earth. Even from the perspective of someone who doesn't care about Iran, this looks weaker than Obama, Biden and Carter combined. It looks extraordinarily weak. And Trump has absolutely no choice but to strike HARD to reassert himself. If it wasn't a bluff before, it needs to be one now. Otherwise it teaches every evil regime on Earth that all they have to do is throw tantrums and hang in there, and the US will give in.

Currently showing on Amazon Prime. Slightly alt Argentinian history but.. ‘In war there are no prizes for the runner up’. @TheParachuteReg @2PARA_HQ @3PARA

This was probably true. Now further exacerbated by the ‘fifth estate’ of social media. But… it’s from the Spectator Jan 1885, and the furore over Gordon of Khartoum

I have a distinct feeling that 2026 might be the year we discover we have been living within The Matrix…

A country is not a commodity.

Let the people of Iran sing!

Targets will fall when hit… I wonder who Kemi would have in mind today?

@BriW74 And don’t make any concessions

@NotesFASMil They would look at the fall of the Shah and say that the lesson was not ordering the Army and security forces to use maximum force against the protests.

Knowledge and information is power. The Mullahs of Iran know this - and fear it. A prolonged ‘digital curtain’ is an indicator.

@john_shirras Done

@NotesFASMil can you follow me for a DM?

11 Nov 2008 The final bugle call for WW1 vets Henry Allingham (112), Harry Patch (110) & Bill Stone (108). All would be gone within the year. Living memory of WW1 finally passed.

Happy St Crispin’s day. And therefore one of the greatest leadership speeches in the English language by the Bard.

Monty - still very relevant today…