Roberto

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products designed to bet against an entire sector. Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in late 2025. Blackstone's $82 billion flagship credit fund saw $6.5 billion in redemption requests in Q1. BlackRock had to cap withdrawals after requests hit 9.3% of its HPS fund. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater are also gating redemptions. JPMorgan already started marking down software-related loans in private credit portfolios. When the banks that lend to these funds start cutting the value of the collateral, it forces deleveraging at the worst possible time. US banks have lent nearly $300 billion to private credit providers. The exposure is not contained. Goldman's own data shows hedge funds are "aggressively shorting" financial stocks, the most-sold sector of the year. Financials are down 11% on the S&P. The same banks that helped build the private credit boom are now building the tools to bet against it. If that sounds familiar, it should.

THIS IS IT. I’m officially 95% out of the market. S&P 500 price now: 6,983 I’ve been in this game for more than 20 years. Here’s why I decided to get out: First of all, didn’t sell my long term BTC stack I’ve been holding since 2013-2015, my metals and real estate. Does that mean the market will crash tomorrow? NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT. I’m not a day trader. But there’s a good chance we’re very close to a market top and could drop 15–20% from here. The smartest founders in history are all rushing to the exit at the same time. – SpaceX – OpenAI – Databricks – Anthropic They’re aggressively targeting 2026 IPOs with a combined $4T valuation. They aren’t selling because they need cash. They’re selling because they’ve identified the top. We’ve seen this exact setup twice before. The 2000 Dotcom crash and the 2021 SPAC mania. Insiders use the window to distribute shares at unsupportable valuations (100x revenue). The math ain’t mathing. Big Tech are burning a shit ton of money trying to chase the AI narrative. – $400B in AI Capex – Only ~$20B in revenue return To justify this spend, they need $2 Trillion in new revenue by 2030. That isn't an investment. That’s a bubble. And look who else is leaving. Warren Buffett is sitting on a $300B+ pile of cash. He’s been aggressively selling into this rally. He doesn’t want to buy the dip. He wants to survive the crash. Then there’s the 2026 debt wall. Zombie companies survived on 0% interest rates, but now the bill is due. They have to refinance BILLIONS this year at significantly higher rates. Most won't survive it. Let’s see how this plays out. Keep in mind: I called the last 3 major market top and bottom publicly. When I start buying again, I’ll say it here for everyone to see. Many people will regret not following me sooner.

BOJ GOV UEDA: SECONDARY IMPACT FROM SUPPLY SHOCK CAN LEAD TO BROAD BASED PRICE HIKES