Neil Shearing

@EdConwaySky Seems that way - and the gilt market likes it...

OMG has the OBR document just leaked? Reuters reporting details from inside the Budget NOW. Blimey.

“A key question is whether that US block holds?” “America first really does in that situation become America last.” @ShearingNeil speaks at Policy Exchange yesterday on geopolitics and the splintering of the Global Economy 👇

On this episode of the #FreeExpressionPodcast, I spoke with @ShearingNeil, Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics and author of “The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy.” wsj.com/podcasts/opini…

On today's show with @FrankCNBC: Markets: Scott Ladner Travel: Stephen Grambling S&P 500: @ShearingNeil Oil: Rebecca Babin Trading: @TiffanyInvests Reporting: @Silvia_Amaro, @berthacoombs, @Hugh_Son, and @sherman4949 See you at 5am ET on @CNBC!

In his latest column Martin Wolf draws on our work on US-China fracturing. Analysis and data here - message me if you want access: capitaleconomics.com/publications/g…

Yup

From our US rapid on September CPI. Rise in core is all about shelter - which we know is about to fall... capitaleconomics.com/publications/u…

Full report here: capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/eco…

Yep. Best estimate is that half the effects of tightening have yet to be felt.

Pleasure as always to chat to @mattmiller1973, @GinaMartinAdams and @dsassower. Tl;dr: China matters but not for the reasons you think, and don't expect fireworks from Powell tomorrow. (Cue fireworks.)

"Jackson Hole, if you're a bond investor, is kind of the main event this week." - Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Yup

Finally: we've been asking clients for their views on AI. Results so far: - Large majority think AI will be a genuinely transformative technology. - 50/50 split as to whether it’s a US-only story. - Large majority think a bubble is forming around AI Will continue to update...

My note from this week sets out the key issues: capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-get-h…

📢Annoucning our annual Spotlight project... This year we'll be tackling AI and the economic and market implications. I know, I know - not another report on AI. But what's missing on the macro front is a comprehensive framework to pull everything together.

The debate around "Greedflation" muddles the distributional consequences of inflation with its underlying causes. Profit margins haven't expanded - but firms have been able to pass on higher costs. Which reflects the relative strength of demand. More here: capitaleconomics.com/blog/greedflat…

Key chart from our latest round of chart packs:

China's demographic problem in one chart