Signal Risk

*FREE TO READ* #Madagascar – A reset Transitional president Michael Randrianirina and prime minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison announced a new cabinet on 26 March. Our analysis briefing from 27 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/madagascar-a-r…

#Niger Will the creation of a civilian auxiliary force contain the militant threat? More in our weekly newsletter - mailchi.mp/signalrisk/the…

#CotedIvoire How will a delay in cocoa sales impact the country’s economic outlook? #Regional How does the involvement of Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Middle East conflict impact risks facing Africa?

Five things on our mind this week in Africa: #Benin Will there be any surprises in the country's presidential election? #Sudan How do RSF incursions in Blue Nile state change the conflict's dynamics?

Signal Risk in the media: Head of analysis, Ryan Cummings, in DW's article: Nigeria expands security ties amid insurgency dw.com/en/nigeria-mov…

#Gabon – Back to the fund The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on 11 March that Gabon had formally requested a new loan programme. Our analysis briefing from 23 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/gabon-back-to-…

Our analysis briefing from 20 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/chad-spillover…

#Chad – Spillover President Mahamat Deby Itno called on 18 March for the complete closure of Chad’s shared border with Sudan and the mobilisation of the military to retaliate to any threats emanating across the frontier.

"The war between the US and Iran has grown far beyond a conventional military clash. It is now a sprawling, multi-dimensional contest in which neither side can achieve its objectives quickly, cheaply or cleanly." businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-0…

Signal Risk in the media: Director, Ronak Gopaldas, in Business Day:

Our analysis briefing from 24 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/mauritius-bere…

#Mauritius – Berenger's breaking point Deputy prime minister Paul Berenger submitted his resignation on 20 March following protracted disagreements within the ruling Alliance du Changement (AdC) coalition.

Signal Risk in the media: Director, Ronak Gopaldas, in Le Monde's article: Middle East war sparking new economic shock for Africa lemonde.fr/en/economy/art…

Our analysis briefing from 18 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/republic-of-co…

*FREE TO READ* #RepublicofCongo – Denis declared Interior minister Raymond Zephirin Mboulou issued a televised address on the evening of 17 March, confirming that president Denis Sassou Nguesso had won the 15 March presidential election.

#Regional Which African countries are emerging as the winners and losers in the Middle East conflict? More in our weekly newsletter - mailchi.mp/signalrisk/the…

#RepublicofCongo Will a petition influence the outcome of the presidential election? #Somalia How will the South West states suspension of cooperation with the federal government impact the political environment?

Five things on our mind this week in Africa: #Chad Is the government set to intervene in the Sudan civil war? #Mauritius How will deputy prime minister Paul Berenger’s resignation impact the stability of the ruling alliance?

Signal Risk in the media: Lead analyst, Menzi Ndhlovu, in Financial Times' article: Nigeria’s old guard still holds the cards in a young nation ft.com/content/1351c8…

Our analysis briefing from 18 March is available here: thesignalroom.com/zambia-not-a-g…

#Zambia – Not a given Acting president of the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) party, Given Lubinda, announced on 15 March that the party would hold a convention within the next four days to select a presidential candidate for the August general elections.