Trade Butter

A lot of good product shipped this weekend: -redesigned onboarding flow -improved mobile ui -improved smart filtering and baseline detection -pop up cards for weather risk, socials, contract rules -added game data (starting with mlb) to augment market resolution data -added transcript data (starting with trump events) to augment market resolution data Stay tuned for some alpha on game three tomorrow

Wife agreed to put $100 into @Kalshi Started off with a bit of up and down while playing around and learning the platform Then I discovered mention markets and built a mention market intelligence platform to make smarter trades It's been one of my favorite side projects to date I've really enjoyed the process of being immersed in markets and also building a product end to end This is what the journey has looked like

draft just hit in the first quarter, now 17/19 for spurs in the playoffs

one of our favorites, "Ankle", hit in the first minute of the broadcast for game one currently sitting at 69c for G2, 59c G3, and 59c G4

unreleased feature alert!! trade butter change point algo detects a baseline change for "GOAT" in tonights knicks spurs game "GOAT" was said in 0 of the Spurs first 11 playoff games (0%), but was said in 3 of the last 7 playoff games (43%) odds they say "GOAT" tonight? 🤔 currently trading at 18c on Kalshi

for "draft" tonight, trade butter smart filters highlight spurs as the best filter "draft" trades at 68c on Kalshi, but in Spurs games this playoff, draft has resolved YES in 16/18 games (89%) see more at trade butter

see more at trade-butter.com

trade butter smart filters show ref as the best filter for "travel" in tonight's game one knicks @ spurs kalshi trades at 80c YES, but if you dig into the numbers, "travel" resolves YES with this ref crew 89% of the time, including ref James Capers who has called a travel in 10/10 playoff games

behind the scenes look at smart filtering

a lot of alpha just shipped on TB some cool features

TB Ships: email alerts are LIVE be the first to know when a new market drops get in before the spread tightens with this feature, you would know Kalshi markets are LIVE for game 1 through 4 of the NBA finals plus four new word markets: Alien, Popovich, Spike Lee, and LeBron

I've added referee data to Trade Butter now you can filter games reffed by the same crew, and see a ref level breakdown for each mention market this should be helpful for "travels" and "technical" nba word markets only supporting nba right now, more soon

Three new NBA Finals word markets up on Kalshi Some huge bid-ask spreads as the market makers haven't moved in yet Check Trade Butter for the latest word mention market breakdowns by team and announcing crew

first half of the first quarter 👀

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Check out our latest substack for an inside look at how Trade Butter can deliver edge in word markets Example analysis pulled from WCF Game 7 word markets