Two Prime

@BitcoinatBlock 🫰

Bitcoin isn’t new to Block. We’ve been building for over a decade. Here’s how we’re helping grow the bitcoin economy ↓ block.xyz/bitcoin

On Tuesday, the SEC and CFTC named 16 crypto assets as digital commodities. Not securities. For institutional allocators, that is not a small thing. It determines compliance frameworks, custodian requirements, and what a fiduciary can defend to a board. The CLARITY Act still needs to pass to make it permanent. But for the first time in over a decade, there is a written answer to the question that kept a lot of capital on the sidelines.

@buymatador Exactly

@Two_Prime Evaluating where returns come from is part of responsible risk management and ensuring long-term balance sheet integrity.

What does 'bitcoin yield' actually mean? There is no risk-free rate for BTC. No equivalent of a T-bill. Every strategy marketed as yield involves taking some combination of counterparty risk, technology risk, volatility risk, or tail risk. Asking where the return comes from is not skepticism. It is diligence.

@mont_py Take out one of the most consistent buyers in the book the same week the Fed speaks and suddenly the ETFs are doing a lot of heavy lifting alone.

@Two_Prime also no saylor STRC this week. so even less bidding.

The Fed meets tomorrow. No change in rate cut expectations is priced in with 95% probability. That is not the story. Bitcoin dropped (within 48 hours) after 7 of the last 8 FOMC meetings in 2025. Five of those meetings were holds. Three were cuts. The pattern held either way.

In January 2024, 18 public companies held bitcoin on their balance sheet. Today there are 88. The growth rate is not the interesting part. The survival rate over the next 12 months will be.

"We've reached a point of exhaustion, if not pause, in the Bitcoin market." @alexandersblume of @Two_Prime and @sprainhill of @CleanSpark_Inc

"For the first time in our history, we actually had to liquidate a client and sell-off a couple ten million of Bitcoin." @alexandersblume of @two_prime on liquidating Bitcoin-backed loans during the recent market drawdown.

"Cheap capital awaits today on-chain. It comes with few questions and very low rates, but it can leave at almost any time and has no loyalty or relationship behind it." Two Prime CEO @alexandersblume writes for @Forbes on the DeFi lending reckoning. hubs.li/Q046HsNT0

Nearly $1 billion into Bitcoin ETFs in the first two weeks of March. The Fear and Greed Index has been below 25 for over three weeks straight. Retail sentiment says one thing. Institutional flow data says another. The composition of the buyer base has changed.

“A product that pays more than 6% over Treasuries must come with additional risk.” Two Prime CEO @alexandersblume on the rise of STRC for @CoinDesk and @btcjvs hubs.li/Q046xVxt0

Estimated average cost to produce one bitcoin: ~$80,000 Where bitcoin is currently trading: ~$70,700 Most of the market is staring at the price. The more interesting number is the spread between those two figures and how long it can hold.

Since Friday, gold is down roughly 2%. Bitcoin is up roughly 12%. In a week defined by geopolitical uncertainty, the asset that was supposed to be too volatile to be a store of value outperformed the one that has held that title for centuries. One week does not rewrite the thesis. But institutional allocators are watching this data point closely. $700 million into US Bitcoin ETFs so far in March suggests some of them are already acting on it.

Our CEO @alexandersblume in @Forbes: why BTC may be the only institutional digital asset. The analysis examines statistical trading behavior, ETF demand patterns, institutional adoption metrics, and competitive dynamics across digital assets. hubs.ly/Q044x_bw0

Fair question. The underperformance shows up over full cycles, not individual months. Premium collection looks strong during drawdowns and flat periods. The cost comes when BTC moves sharply upward, and the sold calls cap your participation. Over time, the missed upside during rallies has exceeded the cumulative premium collected.

@Two_Prime what the fuck you talking about? underperforming spot? how this even possible if spot at the lows (10% from the lows), how 6 month of selling calls can be less profitable than 10%? are they selling 1 delta calls?

Strategy buys 3,015 more BTC at $67,700. Their tenth straight week. Meanwhile, BTC income ETFs that use covered call strategies are underperforming spot. One approach preserves full upside exposure. The other caps it in exchange for income. Different goals, different outcomes.

@PulseLineAlgo That is the right framing. The question now is whether the operational infrastructure around bitcoin meets the standards institutional allocators already expect in every other asset class.

@Two_Prime Institutional custody being table stakes in crypto — not a differentiator — is such a clear signal that we've crossed a threshold. The infrastructure is being built for pension and endowment-sized capital. That changes everything about price behavior.

Two Prime is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor and Commodity Trading Advisor. SOC compliant. Institutional custody. Transparent reporting. These are not differentiators in traditional finance. They are the baseline. In digital assets, they remain uncommon. We believe that will change as the market matures.

The basis trade compressed to 3-4%. Translation: the easiest institutional bitcoin trade is no longer worth the effort for most desks. What comes next requires more sophisticated approaches. Funding arbitrage, volatility management, cross-exchange inefficiencies. The market structure is maturing.

At Two Prime, making trades occurs at the end of a long line of research, testing, and monitoring new ideas. Here we share one aspect of our work: an approach to modeling synthetic yield curves on BTC basis. Download the report now: hubs.ly/Q045T-_l0