William Simons

I’m so glad the BBC sent her to be the reporter on this! She appreciated every moment of the #Artemis launch so much!! 🚀

@Winnie312a @rfehrm The rapid steepness of the market and the length of time on the draw down. Putting in stop losses saved me from many sleepless nights.

@William_Simons3 @rfehrm What were the biggest risk exposures you underestimated during that period?

For those that haven’t traded a sideways choppy market…this is what it looks like…2015-2016..

@ShooterMcGavin That’s outstanding! My Dad took me for many years. The memories of those days are truly special to me. Enjoy that day with Dad and make some memories!

Dad getting to go to his first Masters. Awesome.

Today’s market strength was textbook. This is exactly what markets do during corrections when they get stretched to oversold levels. As I said just recently, "some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets and corrections." Today was a perfect example. Traders rushed in after headlines hit that Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end the conflict with the U.S. The Dow exploded higher by 1,125 points. But let’s not confuse cause and effect. The news may have been the trigger, but the market was already set up for a rally. It was oversold and primed. Now comes the part where discipline matters. We ignore the first few days of a rally attempt. That’s potential noise. What matters is whether the market can follow through and whether leadership begins to emerge and proper setups develop. Technically, this is a classic snapback: Indexes that broke below the 200-day are rallying back toward it, while Indexes that held the 200-day are bouncing off it. That’s typical countertrend behavior until proven otherwise. Expect volatility to remain elevated. That’s not where low-risk money is made, but it's certainly where the risk is. Your job during corrections is simple: identify the stocks showing the best relative strength and the tightest price action. Those are your future leaders when the market finally turns. On the macro side, nothing has been resolved. Higher crude prices are still a problem. Yesterday’s rally did nothing to materially bring down oil. The bigger issue is still in play and the jury still out. Oil at these levels feeds inflation, pressures growth, and gives the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer. Yields stay elevated in that environment. To cut through all the noise, I look to the market itself, which has a much better track record of telling us the truth than the politicians, the analysts, the news, and the gurus. The four steps of the bottoming process are: 1. Oversold – The difference between an ordinary pullback and an oversold condition starts with price, but it does not end there. Poor breadth and and a lack of volume confirmed follow through describe a one-sided market, and one not to trust. 2. Rally – Inevitably, the market bounces from its oversold condition. A high-quality rally is broad-based. A low-quality rally is defined by short covering and driven primarily by the stocks that have declined the most. Again, the character of the rally is important to distinguish. So far, we simply don't have enough data to make a confident determination, so patience is the watch word while we wait. 3. Retest – After the rally, there is almost always a retest. The popular averages approach, and in some cases breach, their oversold lows. The key to a successful retest is less selling pressure, such as fewer stocks below their moving averages, fewer stocks, sectors, and markets making new lows, less total volume, and less downside volume. If the retest fails, the process reverts and we generally start looking for divergences during lower lows. In the event of unexpected news, it is possible for the market to recover in a "V" fashion with no retest. In that case, we look at breadth confirmation and participation. 4. Breadth thrusts – In the final phase, not only do benchmark indices rally sharply with few pullbacks, but they do so with an extremely high percentage of stocks, sectors, and markets participating, or what technical analysts call breadth thrusts. In rare cases, the market has skipped step 3. With strong enough breadth, retests are not necessary. The Covid bottom is an example of a pretty powerful V-shaped recovery. Bottom line: This was an oversold rally, sparked by headlines—but not defined by them, and certainly not confirmation of a reliable bottom. Now we watch: --Quality of follow-through --Emergence of leadership --Market internals and model health If the rally lacks quality, if economic pressure builds, or if leading stocks begin to deteriorate, then this remains what it likely is—a rally within a correction. Stay objective. Let the market prove itself. If you are going to trade, do so incrementally. minervini.com

This always brings me to tears. Grace is utterly amazing, and Alistair illustrates it beautifully. I’d love it if you gave this a few moments of your time…

@markminervini @epictrades1 Thank you for posting this for us!

The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases. We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction. Bullish Scenario --The war ends --Oil prices recede --Stagflation concerns ease --Central banks continuing their easing trajectory Under this scenario, we would expect: -A broadening market advance -Emergence of new leadership from sound bases -A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution -Significant drop in volatility Bearish Scenario --The war persists or escalates --The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted --Oil prices make new highs --Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data This would likely result in: -Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing -Lack of follow-through from breakout names -Further deterioration in breadth and leadership -Dearth of setups in buyable position -Continued elevated volatility and distribution In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.

@AndreasSteno @Geiger_Capital Either you are delusional or flat out lying to yourself and everyone else. Either way you are wrong. It has Not always been that way.

@Geiger_Capital Sure, but the sad truth is that Europe has always received the loads of refugees from the conflicts that the US got into in the Middle East

Germany in 10 years: It was a "huge mistake" to flood our country with millions of men from Syria and Afghanistan

@KyleTuckerCBB Hey, Don’t go around advertising our secret!😉

I had no idea: Greenville, S.C., is an awesome city. Legit really cool downtown district. Great restaurants and good vibes. I feel like this is the best kept secret on the East Coast?

@anandragn Nope. The vast majority of the people I know are just fine with the pace of this Middle East action. For once we might just get it right!

I usually stay far away from politics… I just can’t stand politics. Right now though, one thing that stands out regardless of where you lean, whether you welcomed this administration or dreaded it, there’s a growing sense of total fatigue. Some see strong leadership, others see too much ego and unnecessary friction with other nations taking center stage. Either way, the constant tension, noise, and questions around accountability are wearing most people out regardless of the camp. Red or blue, the fatigue feels really bipartisan at this point. Don’t shoot the messenger tho!

@MatthewBounds01 @TrumpGirlLove Yes it is. And thank you for your service as well.

@William_Simons3 @TrumpGirlLove Great to meet you. It’s always nice to have someone to share old memories with. Thank you for your service

Massive USAF C-17 Globemaster departs RAF Lakenheath on a max-power takeoff! ✈️💨🇺🇸🔥

@MatthewBounds01 @TrumpGirlLove 😋 Yep, the 141 was showing its age at the end. Still a great bird that I really enjoyed flying. Air Evac missions were always interesting and took special people in the back to make it be successful! Thanks for doing this.

@William_Simons3 @TrumpGirlLove We retired our c141s in early 2003s and went to the C17s thank god. I can remember that the 141s would lose at least 1 engine almost every flight I was on back in the old days. When we went to the C17 in Jackson, Mississippi as Air Evac our Mission load picked up massively

@carlquintanilla Do you really feel comfortable allowing Iran a Nuke? And do you realize you work in one of the first places it would be used on? Really sad to see you acting this way. Oh well.

@margbrennan You have a serious mental issue with this. I hope you somehow, maybe through prayer, come to realize this and pray for help.

The religious references as justification for war continue....

@margbrennan If this bothers you it is you that has a very serious problem. I’ll say a prayer for you.

@jrouldz I truly hope you are right! Let’s reconvene in three years and see how things are going in the Big Apple. And I promise you I hope and pray it is still doing well!

"Corporations are fleeing NYC" Meanwhile, - JP Morgan: builds $3B new HQ in Midtown - American Express: announces new HQ at 2WTC - BoA: Signs lease for entirety of One Bryant Park Reports of NYC's death are greatly exaggerated 😆

@SGTWipper1Each Fairchild Washington in February for survival training! Three and half feet of snow and -10 at night. The Air Force felt bad for us so they gave us inserts to go in our sleeping bags!

Being from Florida, I hate being cold. 🥶 What's the coldest weather you've experienced?

@801010athlete 😳😋 Yep, that is how it usually is! Hopefully you found some good food to go along with that vibe!😉😎

@William_Simons3 Shem creek was wild yesterday bro

The houses and architecture in downtown King St Charleston is 👌🏻. Photo dump