Davud Rostam-Afschar

We construct survey-based daily time series on 🔹 sales prices 🔹 dividends 🔹 fixed cost 🔹 R&D investments 🔹 firm survival 🔹 revenue 🔹 investment 🔹 policy satisfaction 🔹 profit 🔹 employment based on the German Business Panel of the @trr_accounting with @LukasHack_

@alexolegimas Super interesting! A possible reason for the micro–macro gap: who captures the productivity gains. arxiv.org/abs/2510.21959 finds when productivity rises wage growth expectations barely move. If this generalizes, macro stats based on wages per worker may miss much of AI's impact.

New post: What is the impact of AI on productivity? I review all of the studies and data that I can find and try to provide a synthesis. There’s a lot of disagreement on what we know about the productivity impact. Part of the reason for this is the disconnect between the micro and macro evidence. The micro studies overwhelmingly find positive productivity benefits (except for one notable exception), but these productivity benefits are yet to show up in the macro data. There is also a disconnect on who benefits most: micro (mostly) finds low-skill/less-experienced workers see higher returns, the (limited) macro evidence is more mixed but leans toward higher wage/higher ed people seeing more of the benefits. I discuss potential reasons for the micro-macro gap in the post and 🧵 below. Importantly, this is a living post. I will update it continuously as new data comes in. If you see something I'm missing, please let me know and I will add it. For regular updates, please consider subscribing to the substack. Here is the link: aleximas.substack.com/p/what-is-the-…

Thanks for inviting me to present "which macro news matters for price-setting?" with @LukasHack_ at @oenb We use high-frequency event studies & find that inflation & employment surprises imply significant revisions in firms' pricing. Check the paper👇 ifo.de/en/cesifo/publ…

Come join the #ASSA2026 sessions my co-authors and I will be presenting ! 📌Sat 10:15 Measuring Inflation 📌Sun 8:00 Firm Dynamics 📌Sun 10:15 Innovation, Spillovers, Spatial Dynamics 📌Sun 2:30 Wealth Disparities and Inequality 📌Mon 10:15 Innovation, Growth, Labor Dynamics

New paper: benjaminmoll.com/SRL/

My paper "Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting?" (w/ @almostcertainly) is available as @CESifoNetwork WP: shorturl.at/1xJBe. I also presented it at @cepr_org MEF Annual Symposium, @ifo_Institut survey conference & the @bundesbank real time data conference.

Excellent workshop, great discussions, and a fantastic venue! I presented new work (in progress) with Eckhard Janeba, Felix Köhler and Paul Steger on what the city of Mainz did with its excess tax revenue of 3.3 billion € or about 12,600 per capita due to a business breakthrough

📢Postdoc position in Macroeconomics📢 The position is a full-time position for a period of three years starting September 1, 2026, at the University of Mannheim. 🔗Apply here: econjobmarket.org/positions/11691 📅Application deadline: November 16, 2025.

It is for science :)

Here is a preview:

Hi #EconTwitter, I have an almost complete set of autographs of some of my favorite ifo researchers who were @VfS_econ. To finance my next trip to @ifo_Institut (2. class DB), I will give away a copy of it to the second highest bid. Please vote how much you are willing to pay!

@ash_craig "Almost surely"="fast sicher" but you could label scales also "höchstwahrscheinlich" :)

But there is a German one. Dreißigprozentwahrscheinlichkeit

New evidence on what moves price-setting 👇

Very pleased to have joined @almostcertainly and Ian Sheldon over at @TheGeostrata to have discussed the international economic and trade policies of the Trump administration. This was recorded prior to the President's Middle East trip but helps put the deals in context. 1/

Here are some ways in which the world has gotten better.

What is behind tax elasticities? Often we think firms move when taxes increase. Asked directly, they indeed complain but experimental evidence shows they will not act. Instead tax cuts attract investments. Tax policy works like a ratchet due to home bias: shorturl.at/PkfCC

📢New WP! How do firms perceive the competitiveness of their business location and how does that shape their investment decisions? In a project with @BlesseSebastian, F. Buhlmann and @almostcertainly we study these questions in a firm survey experiment. Check out the thread👇

It is our pleasure to introduce the full line up of speakers for the 2025 Oceania Stata Conference, featuring Chuck Huber (@ChuckHuber8), John Kane (@UptonOrwell), Davud Rostam-Afschar (@almostcertainly), Jan Kabatek (@JanKabatek) and David White (@m0457356748) to just name a few. Learn more at oceaniastataconference.net/paper.html

🎉Thrilled to share my #JMP🎉 It provides a missing piece to understand how people react to income taxation. Tldr: By changing tax pre-payments governments can - with almost no costs - increase perceived work incentives of secondary earners. Thread👇🧵 #EconTwitter

I will be presenting my poster on "Taxes and Pay without Performance: Evidence from Executives" at #CEPRParis2024 today at 12.30. Make sure to check it out!

@ZarehAsatryan @uni_muenster @zew_en Congrats!🥳

Excited to have been appointed as Professor of Empirical Economics at @uni_muenster, along with my job as deputy-head of Public Finance department at @zew_en. Looking forward to interacting with the students and faculty of @uni_muenster, and representing the two institutions.