AntonKreil@AntonKreil
As a Trader / Investor it's your job to predict the future and back your views with risk under control.
It is always murky and never 100%.
This is something Retail Traders generally tend to struggle with.
"How do you know that it's going to happen so many times Anton?"
The answer is you don't 100%. It just seems that way. I'm always wrong but im more often right and im bigger when im right than when im wrong. Thats the key to longer term success.
Just accept that in financial markets and life in general, that nothing is 100% i.e. guaranteed and nothing is 0% i.e. impossible. Except of course that it is neither. That's the only thing that is guaranteed!
We live in a world of probabilities and it's always in a constant dynamic flow state where things change.
The best you can do is to increase your odds of success by the processes and actions you implement.
Put the odds in your favor. 60/40 or 65/35 is generally the best you will ever do in Financial Markets. If anyone says to you they can do better than that long term, they are lying or misleading you.
Good Proferssional traders and investors all know this.
Personally I was brought up in a World where walking onto the Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers or JP Morgan trading desks pre 2008 i.e. when trading was old school proper trading, we used to read the financial newspapers and online media etc at 6.15am-7am.., and whatever was in the news is what we were doing yesterday or talking about weeks before. The "news" was and always will be confirmation of whether we were right or wrong. We used to go outside at 8.40am for our 3rd cigarette break of the morning and watch "normies" getting off the tube / subway and walking to work, panicking to make it to their desk for 9am. We were always 1-2 steps ahead of everyone else. It was a simply brilliant training ground for the mentality it takes to be successful as a trader.
Understand the mindset and apply it. Your job is to predict what will be in the news weeks from now. The world responds to fundamental shifts. Not lines on a chart that happenend in the past. Your job is to predict that. Not to respond to it by initiating positions afterwards. The normies and the dumb money piker traders are the exit liquidity for Professionals.