币不可少
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币不可少
@bitbukeshao
YouTube:币不可少 Twitter:@bitbukeshao 只有这两个社交平台是正版 #bitcoin 所有内容仅代表个人观点,不构成任何投资建议
شامل ہوئے Şubat 2021
182 فالونگ3.6K فالوورز
پن کیا گیا ٹویٹ
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I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA & on-chain cost basis (RV = ~$56K)
~$50K & below: bottom of the weekly range below, psychological, below this number you would see "death of BTC" calls once again
Importantly, I don't care what happens. If we rally from here, I'll ride what I have and diversify my portfolio, if we fall apart I'll buy more $BTC & select cryptoassets.
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2025 Total Returns...
Gold $GLD: +64%
Developed ex-US $VEA: +35%
EM $IEMG: +33%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +21%
S&P 500 $SPY: +18%
Small Caps $IWM: +13%
Commodities $DBC: +8%
US Bonds $AGG: +7%
Cash $BIL: +4%
REITs $VNQ: +3%
Bitcoin $BTC: -6%
Volatility $VXX: -42%
youtube.com/channel/UCRoWR…
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closing section of buffett's final letter:
"One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.
Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.
Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.
Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.
I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman."
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Bittensor subnet valuation gap is insane, trading at 1/10th to 1/100th of Competiton:
$TAO: $524
Halving: 40 days
Current Total Subnet Mcap: $1.53B
Fair value range Mcap: $15B–$30B
$TAO market cap: $5B
120+ active subnets
Each AI related business. Valued less than, any single mid-tier altcoin?
Let that Asymmetry sink in.
This is real value the market hasn’t priced:
Chutes ($139M) vs Modal ($1B) = 7x gap
Ridges ($121M) vs Devin ($2B) = 17x gap
Dippy ($18M) vs CharacterAI ($1B) = 56x gap
Quantum ($50M) vs IonQ ($2B) = 40x gap
Templar 43M vs Together AI ($1.25B) = 29x gap
ReadyAI 19M vs Scale AI ($13.8B) = 726x gap
IOTA $32M vs Together AI ($1.25B) = 39x gap
Every subnet listed is shipping products.
None of them needed VC funding.
They earn emissions, not permission.
Real products. Real users.
An easy 1/10th the price.
10x from here.
There are 120+ more subnets covering every AI use case imaginable.
Explore: taostats.io/subnets
Macro:
• Fed ending QT (liquidity returning)
• $TAO halving in 40 days (supply shock)
Ecosystem maturing (120+ subnets, $106M daily volume)
We’re watching working AI infrastructure priced like vaporware.
Once revenues hit, listings expand, and awareness catches up
the repricing will be violent.
$TAO

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币不可少 ری ٹویٹ کیا

read every memo written by howard marks over the last 35 years and my key takeaway:
“you cannot predict, by you can prepare.”
specifically this means
- there will always be economic, market, and business cycles due to animal spirit.
- u can assess roughly where we r in the cycle based on current price multiples relative to historical average and investor psychology (eg “this time is different”).
- without forecasting when and at what price cycle tops or bottoms.
- no one can make such forecasts better than consensus consistently over a long period of time.
- but u can do better than the market over the long term by adjust ur position defensively or aggressive based where we r in the cycle.
simple, but incredibly hard to implement because u will succumb to ur own animal spirit.
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Those chasing ETH beta via DeFi tokens will be let down this bull run.
DeFi summer taught us that value accrues from ETH -> DeFi projects. It's a logical conclusion, given that DeFi is the most popular sector on Ethereum.
But what's become evident is the real ETH beta is actually boomer coins (i.e., XRP, HBAR, XLM, ADA, TRX, ALGO, etc.) These are the B-tier majors, tokens with 11-figure market caps, yet no fundamentals to back it up. The primary tailwind here is the lindy effect + CEX exposure, which makes these tokens an easy buy for non-crypto natives.
What we’re seeing instead is that ETH beta now flows into large-cap “boomer coins”, like XRP, ADA, HBAR, XLM, ALGO, etc. These tokens have double-digit billion-dollar market caps, yet little to no network activity to back them up. Their appeal lies in longevity (Lindy) and accessibility for retail outside the crypto-native crowd via CEXs.
This proves two things:
1) Fundamentals still don’t matter. Revenue and usage metrics have little influence in a retail-driven bull market.
2) Unless you have asymmetric edge in medium/small caps, you're better off holding levered ETH or large-cap majors than hoping a mid-cap DeFi token will outperform.
The token landscape has dramatically expanded since DeFi Summer. With more options, selection risk increases, and picking the right DeFi token becomes harder and statistically less rewarding.
Fundamentals are not your friend in a bull market. Don't get cheeky: keep it simple and move in size on easy bets.

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币不可少 ری ٹویٹ کیا
币不可少 ری ٹویٹ کیا

Please pay attention
👇
👀👀👀
@
Maybe, just maybe it was this easy... I'll chat more about it on tonights' Drinks with Raoul at 6pm ET
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