
#WestBengal reported approximately 93% polling in 152 of 294 seats in Ph-1. Presumably the polling rate will sustain in ph-2. Here are some of the observations: 1) First rigging-free, casualty-free and almost violence-free polling in 5-6 decades. Bengal developed rigging machinery from the #Congress days, which was perfected by #Left and #Trinamool. In Bengal ruling party rigs election even at the counting stage. (Three results were challenged by BJP In 2021. All went in their favour.) So EC has more work pending 2) It means, the results will truly reflect the popular aspiration (or lack of it) - whichever way it goes. 3) #Hindus and #Muslims voted with equal enthusiasm. This is a sharp departure from the past where Hindus were lethargic to vote. Example: Bankura (8% M) - 92.15%+ Murshidabad - 94% (66% M) - 93.61% On a granular scale Both Asansol South and North reported 88% polling. They are urban constituencies with North having Muslim concentration. 4) Granular study shows there is no secular pattern in Muslim dominated #Murshidabad. Khargram (88%), Kandi (84%), Burwan (88%) are lower than dist average. This is due to check on false voting. 5) Statistically, Bengal witnessed 4-6% extra voting after discounting the lower base (voter list is down by 91 lakh, including 58 lakh of dead/transferred/not-found). Conclusion: A) No ready conclusion on Hindu or non-Muslim votes. We must wait for the result. B) Muslim votes are expected to go en-masse to Trinamool. But, this segment already consolidated to TMC (in 2021 and 2024) and witnessed heavy false voting. That said, there should not be any upside in Muslim votes to TMC. Pratim Ranjan Bose






















