dadele2nd

$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.

As you know, I do value investing too like with Upwork (+52% in 2 months, P/E 7-> 11.5). An interesting stock is $VIRT as an asymmetrical volatility hedge, a stock barely anyone talks about. Clean asymmetry to balance $IREN / $NBIS. 6.6 forward p/e, 5.38b MC, Virtu ~ Citadel, and does market making for a large percentage of retail orders. Current price: $35.19 Again, nobody is really talks about this stock, so I like testing my a new thesis against the market sometimes. I could be wrong and would love feedback too! This is a light DD on why I'm building light call + share positions: 1/ Rate cuts don’t nuke earnings. Virtu’s term loans are floating (financing +2.5%). total $1.545B. −75 bps ≈ ~12M yr interest savings (not all funding prices down but most are floating tho) 2/ Using Q2 as an anchor (EPS $1.65 / adj $1.53; NI ~$293M; rev ~44% YoY). If we est EPS 10–12% for lower VIX + ~2.6% for net rate drag -> $1.31–$1.34 EPS/qtr -> $5.22–$5.35 next 12 months $35.21 / $5.35 = 6.58x forward p/e $35.21 / $5.22 = 6.74x forward p/e Even if we overshoot because of good Q2 quarter as an anchor without rate cuts, EPS $4.78 -> 7.4× forward p/e, is still extremely good. Other websites like Value Investing estimate forward p/e to be 6.99 - 8 forward p/e. 3/ There's ~$303M authorization remaining for buybacks off a small 5.2B marketcap. If vol normalizes or spikes, expect both EPS and the multiple to lift from today’s ~6–7×. If not, it's undervalued and you can sit back with buybacks. IN my opinion Virtu is a great asymmetrical hedge. If VIX stays low and we get rate cuts, VIRT is undervalued + goes up anyway or stays flat/slightly down, other equities go up, and it serves its hedging case. The Nov 2025 market-structure changes probably is the larger risk to payment order flow, which might create some headwind. Regardless VIX increases and other equities go down, VIRT would get re-rated and goes up. I just see risk/reward being good at these levels so bought Calls. Would recommend shares instead. Starter positions: Call options for Mar 2026 (low 30 IV at entry).

Most business cycles of the past have ended shortly after the price of oil spiked. Rising geopolitical conflict threatens to cause that once again. If oil starts moving higher, it usually marks the beginning of the end of the business cycle.

Yes this is right. This is a screenshot of my portfolio (not my parents). I did not post about recent moves because it was too painful. Unrealized losses are one thing. They aren't real if you're fundamentally right about the business long term. But i created over $1M in realized losses on Feb 23rd... that hit my limit of being too painful to share. I moved back to all in $PATH to protect my last million+ 👇

If $LMT wins or at least shares in a large proportion on the NGSRI contract $LPTH price potential immediately increases by $10-$20 once it gets to FRIP (which will take time since LRIP comes first) But $10-$20 on a $10 stock is... a lot. Chart has work to do but I'm a greedy buyer on any sustained dips.

$AXTI - sold half the position with +40% gains Trimming and trailing the rest from here. Always pay attention to multi year base!

Something BIG is happening behind the scenes at $PYPL. Here's my theory. *backed up by some very interesting evidence* First...what we know. PayPal announced a new multi-year partnership with $GOOG for a AI-powered shopping experiences. Cool, right? Everybody loves shopping. Pause. Who else seems to be attacking the agentic shopping angle? Open AI. Yep, the guys that just partnered with $ETSY & $SHOP for the "Buy it in ChatGPT" initiative. Stick with me for a second. Both Etsy and Shopify are commerce platforms with their own branded payments (ShopPay & Etsy Payments) But under the hood they use different payment processors. Most notably Stripe & $PYPL. 1 year ago, $PYPL partnered with $SHOP to actually power some of Shopify Payments in the U.S. That's a small connection, but there's more. My theory is That $PYPL is playing a larger part in powering the payments infrastructure behind OpenAI’s entire agentic shopping experiment that most think. And a more publicly solidified "partnership" could be coming. Not crazy enough? Back in April '24, Sam Altman's other company "Worldcoin" almost partnered with $PYPL. Alex Chriss (the current $PYPL CEO) was also the CEO during these conversations...meaning him and Sam know each other well. It seems they have "overlapping ambitions" in the crypto, digital payments space👀. So why now? Welp, Open AI is really accelerating partnerships, especially consumer facing angles. In the last month alone, we've seen $SHOP, $ETSY, $AMD, $ORCL, $NVDA, and more. In the world of digital commerce and payment infrastructure, is there a bigger name than $PYPL? Option flows are going nuts the past week. Who knows something? Anywaysss, thanks for sticking with me...and although speculative, something is brewing with $PYPL, now $71.29.

A List of Rare Earth Stocks: Rare Earth Developers $MP MP Materials $USAR USA Rare Earth $REEMF Rare Element Resources $IDR Idaho Strategic Resources Multi-Minerals Developers $TMRC Texas Mineral Resources $TMC The Metals Company $UAMY United States Antimony $NB NioCorp $UUUU Energy Fuels $AREC American Resources $PPTA Perpetua Resources $CRML Critical Metals