Ben@BCD123_
Do you favor season-long KenPom stats over what the experts in Vegas think should actually occur in a single game when incorporating momentum, injuries, and specific matchups? "Everyone said" is the media, fans, and oddsmakers - there was general consensus before most of these games on if they should be close, we should win, or we didn't haver much chance.
In the Kentucky game specifically, Illinois was a 2 point favorite, and we all thought it should be a close game that could go either way. Instead, we got dog walked.
Other notable results compared to Vegas's expectations (which I think largely were consistent with Illini fan expectations give or take a couple of points):
- Illinois was 7.5 point favorites against Loyola and lost by 13 in a game we trailed essentially the entire game.
- Illinois was an 8 point favorite against Chattanooga and won by 1 point after trailing for much of the game thanks to a fortunate late push.
- Houston closed as a 3 point favorite and wiped us off the floor winning by 15.
- UConn was admittedly the better team and 8 point favorites but won by 25.
- Arkansas closed as 2.5 point favorites and beat us by 10 in a game that wasn't as competitive as the final score looked.
This is six instances of what I am describing - results that don't align with expectations. The one exception to this is probably the most important win of BU's tenure where he beat ISU by 3 as a 2.5 point dog. Literally every NCAA tournament game against a team better than an 11 seed we have significantly underperformed consensus expectations except one game.
I don't know how you look at those numbers (as opposed to KenPom and all the "advanced analytics" which keep saying we should win games we lose) and don't also come to the conclusion that we have underperformed expectations in the tournament.
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One can be both appreciative of sustained relevance while also very frustrated with underperforming when it matters most. This is why I refute claims that say "Illinois fans would be mad if we made the elite eight every year but never went further". If we played 2024 UConn every year and were 8 point dogs and consistently lost by 8, that would be one thing, but instead...
