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Thefiresideflicker
3.4K posts

Thefiresideflicker
@firesideflicker
commentary on a bit of everything.. mostly science, energy, tech, finance, sports, outdoors, current events, politics, but very much not politically aligned
شامل ہوئے Nisan 2024
360 فالونگ118 فالوورز

@WickJester @MAGA_X_Times @BelannF If you're dumb enough not to have them on battery backup, I guess.
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Homeowners in this township we’re notified that they had to install a disconnect for their] electric meter base at a cost of $2500 so in the event of a fire the firefighters could simply throw the disconnect and cut power to the dwelling.
These folks had an actual fire and a firefighter who no doubt was acting on his training, pulled the meter out of the meter base threw it on the ground and left the internals of the meter base exposed to the elements.
I’m sure the letterhead that went out notifying the good people of this Township of this “necessary addition”kindly provided a contractor that would do it for them…sounds like a scam to me.
You would think they would use an actual disconnect and not a breaker, that firefighter doesn’t have time to look at our wiring schematic🙄
Has anyone else heard of this ?
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@mathelirium Front of the wing breaks up fast moving air.
If shaped right, the top side get the slower “low pressure air”
Bottom side gets the streamlined, quicker high pressure air.
Pressure is force, high pressure, high force, pushes upward against the low pressure low force side.
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@JoshuaUtin @dom_lucre You could not have kids, but work with, or study kid, and have plenty of valid knowledge on kids.
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🔥🚨DEVELOPING: Former NFL star Cam Newton instantly went off on Kendra G after for trying to tell him how to raise his kids whiteout having any children of her own.
Kendra: “You can’t control your children. The human is a child, they have the right to be themselves”
Newton: “Who can’t?… You’re telling me how a children is supposed to be raised and you don’t have children… This is where I check out”
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@BOSSportsGordo Easier with a truck, sharper turn radius
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@BoomerDivvies Correlation isn’t causation.
Those with a higher net worth OBVIOUSLY are more likely to own a home, but that doesn’t mean owning the home gave them that net worth.
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@TheFoxesSay @MMBeckerman @financedystop So you can say that not all contractors are alike but then turn and say all clients are alike?
Get some perspective dude.
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@MMBeckerman @financedystop As a contractor that’s not the case for everyone. I have a client that owes me a year worth of work. $15k and thousands out of pocket. I make barely $60k a year. So no, it’s not everyone. But everyone wants to screw us.
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@snowanaya1 @DreamDividend @CollinGrossWx But for that to be true, they’d have to be both smart and accurate.
What’re the odds Iran is both? Slim.
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@WallStreetMav But definitely shouldn’t be a specific destination or expected to be an unforgettable experience.
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@WallStreetMav They’re great when going there is convenient.
I’d never go out of my way for one.
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I have been to a Buc-ee’s before.
It is an overrated experience.
greg@greg16676935420
I’m walking into a Buc-ee’s for the first time ever does anyone have any advice?
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@DreamDividend @CollinGrossWx If they wanted to fuck with big oil they would have hit the Permian Basin not Houston. Since Midland/Odessa are the biggest oil producers in Texas.
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It’s a negotiating tactic.
They start with a high percentage which causes a high monthly rate.
Then tell you they got your rate down, and simultaneous they throw in their warranty package that makes your rate stay similar to what it was.
Had this happen to me both of the last two times I purchased, it’s a method to try to get you to pay for the warranties.
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We order a new Ford Maverick.
Dealer calls and said they got financing approved but it’s a high rate so they recommend we put more down and in the future get approved for the Ford credit line to make things easier.
I ask the rate.
12.99%
I say let’s pause on the deal and let me make a few calls.
5 mins later the phone rings.
They magically got it down to 8.49%.
Don’t let these guys try to screw you over.
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@alt_w_v_g If you’re only getting ~3-5% off sticker, you’re the one getting played
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Went to the car dealership Saturday
Wife wants a new SUV
Salesman walked over and said "what are we looking for today?"
I said "what's your margin on the Tahoe?"
He laughed
I said "I'm not joking. What's the invoice price versus the sticker and what holdback does the dealer get from GM?"
He stopped laughing
My wife said "we're just browsing"
We were not just browsing
I brought a spreadsheet
Printed
Color coded
Blue for inputs
Black for calculations
I showed him the comparable transaction analysis I ran on every Tahoe sold within 50 miles in the last 90 days
He said "sir this is a car dealership"
I said "and these are the comps"
He went to get his manager
The manager came out
Looked at my spreadsheet
Looked at me
Said "where do you work?"
I said "private equity"
He said "that explains it"
My wife was already in the lobby pretending she didn't know me
We got the Tahoe
$4,200 below sticker
She didn't thank me
But the savings speak for themselves
You are welcome
Sent from my iPhone
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@realfrugalmogul They love to negotiate in terms of monthly payment..
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Friend: Bro, my car dealership just told me they can take my car, give me a 2026 model, and my payment will be $10 cheaper per month!
Me: Isn’t your car only two years old?
Friend: Yeah, now I can have a brand new model.
Me: Why do you need a new model, is something wrong with the current car?
Friend: Oh no, this car is great! I just want the 2026. It will be cheaper!
Me: It’s unlikely to be cheaper, having a lower monthly payment doesn’t mean the 2026 is “cheaper”
Friend: What do you mean? How is less money not cheaper?
Me: How many years is your current loan for?
Friend: I think 48 months at $350
Me: How many months will the new loan be for?
Friend: It’s 60 months for $340!
Me: That’s not cheaper… you just have a longer term to pay, which is bringing the monthly payments down
Friend: BUT if I sign up this weekend they said they’d lower the monthly payment by another $5… now’s that’s $15 per month cheaper for a NEW car
Me: 🤦
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Imagine what Lockheed Martin has now if they had this is in 2008..
In 2008, Lockheed Martin discreetly tested a forward-looking missile-defense concept known as the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV). Instead of a single interceptor, MKV proposed releasing several small, autonomous kill vehicles in space, each able to track and destroy individual warheads or decoys.
Relying on advanced sensors, onboard guidance, and extreme precision, MKV was designed to defeat saturation attacks far more efficiently than existing systems. Early tests reportedly proved the idea workable, but shifting budgets and strategy led to its cancellation—leaving only a fleeting glimpse of a modular, space-based defense future.
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@OkieLandman580 @oilmutt No. Can’t sell what you don’t own.
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@JesseKellyDC It’s less about what the people can handle or are used to and more about what the grid and homes are designed/built to handle
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@DavidRamsdenWoo @Andrewwolson @zacurate I don’t know that recent ones being 50% of the original is accurate.
Lots of parent wells are 10-15+ years old and understimulated.
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@Andrewwolson @zacurate First well in the spacing unit has no competion. Second competes with the first. Third competes with the first 2. Guys are drilling 8-12 … the recent wells
Are 50% of the original … if that….
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Part 2: Bakken - The Conclusion - using 4cast
Reposting since my TikTak-style video didn't seem to resonate.
Final Answer (the good part):
EURs: ~ 370,000 bbls for Oil and 1 bcf for Gas (30-year)
IRR: ~ 34% for the life of the asset
ROI: ~ 72%
Break-even: ~ 22 months
Assumptions are restated below for reference.
Costs and Decimals:
- 100% Working Interest (source - Zac)
- 75% NRI (source - Zac)
- Drilling: $275/ft - (Source - Chord 3Q25 Earnings Presentation, Conoco 2025 guidance est.
- Completion: $475/ft - same sources above, excluding Zac.
- Avg LOE: Oil $6/bbl, Gas $0.40/mcf (Chord Q3 2025 at ~$9.62/boe aggregate, industry analyses)
Commodity Prices:
- Avg realized prices (flat): Oil $59.73/bbl, Gas $0.85/mcf (Vitesse Q3 2025 report for Bakken)
Type Well (Engin's Nightmare):
- 2023 forward Horizontal wells for all formations blended together and normalized to a 10,000 ft lateral length ~ 2,500 (source - 4cast via Rextag)
Willing to show your work and compare notes? No one ever does this...
Questions and comments are welcome!

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