پن کیا گیا ٹویٹ
Haven't logged into Twitter in over a year. Tweeting to keep the account active, just in case.
English
Joshua B. Miller
7.7K posts
Joshua B. Miller
@jben0
A/Prof, Econ, U. Melbourne (@unimelb), Australia | behavioral/experimental economics | stat/exp methods | 🇺🇸 OAK→SBA→MSP→MXP→SFO/ALC→MEL 🇦🇺
Earth شامل ہوئے Kasım 2012
1.1K فالونگ2.4K فالوورز
@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian ... which is that more shooters are directionally "hot" than you would expect by chance. Finding P(Proportion(H|H)<p) is critical for establishing the chance baseline used in that basic test. /end
English
@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian Yeah, it's connected, but not equivalent. It is related to the incorrect assumptions used to test the hot hand. It focuses on one of the asymmetric features of the sampling distribution for Prop(H|H). It is a critical fact we leverage for one of our initial results.... /1
English
The correct answer is “Bob.” Congrats to the 10% who got it right — those few brave dreamers.
English
@NoahJSnyder "any given sequence" is a loose way of saying "a sequence selected at random"
English
@jben0 I can't figure out how to parse the sentence "any given sequence is more likely to contain this pattern."
English
Haven't been on Twitter for a good few years
Nice problem. How does it connect to the hot hand?
Alice wins ⟺ #HH < #HT
⟺ #HH + #HH < #HH + #HT
⟺ #HH/(#HH + #HT) < 1/2
⟺ Proportion(H|H) < 1/2
... 🧵/1 (ht: @benleo_econ in Melbourne)
Daniel Litt@littmath
The correct answer is “Bob.” Congrats to the 10% who got it right — those few brave dreamers.
English
@dggoldst @littmath yup. We watched a video of Craig Hodges, who obviously had the hot hand. GVT's stat wasn't giving much, which made not sense. So we tested their stat on coin flips.
Ps. just posted here: twitter.com/jben0/status/1…
Joshua B. Miller@jben0
Haven't been on Twitter for a good few years Nice problem. How does it connect to the hot hand? Alice wins ⟺ #HH < #HT ⟺ #HH + #HH < #HH + #HT ⟺ #HH/(#HH + #HT) < 1/2 ⟺ Proportion(H|H) < 1/2 ... 🧵/1 (ht: @benleo_econ in Melbourne)
English
nothing more exhilarating than posing a multiple-choice problem on which 50,000 people do substantially worse than random chance
English
@pontific8 "In October, Musk hinted that accounts that had been dormant for more than a year might also be at risk."
I lost all my Hotmail contacts/messages this way back in the day.
businessinsider.com/elon-musk-dele…
English
Haven't logged into Twitter in over a year. Tweeting to keep the account active, just in case.
English
English
Our sense of connection is a vector for misinformation
People in China & US who are high in collectivism (valuing connection & fitting in) believed more in false claims & found vague statements more profound, as they are driven to find meaning in stuff found meaningful by others
English
@LonesSmith indeed, never too late for that work to become a classic (ironically)
English
One of the best stories from Australia I have heard so far
Alec Stapp@AlecStapp
The Ern Malley hoax is wild
English
an archived interview with the creators: abc.net.au/archives/80day…
English
a clip from: allpoetry.com/Ern-Malley
there is a beauty and truth in this troll. Applies more broadly
English
Joshua B. Miller ری ٹویٹ کیا
Over the past few days I've seen a lot of economists tweet about Arlotti's decision. However, none of them really explained what the expected outcomes of either choice, in particular that of remaining a soccer pro, were.
A quick explainer 🧵👇
English
nice point, and fascinating thread
Kevin Mitchell@WiringTheBrain
@philipcball @Richvn @QuantaMagazine I think a lot of work in genetics, molecular and cell biology and biochemistry has used artificial manipulations to force strong responses from the system that make things look more specific and linear than they really are...
English
@koenfucius @econnaturalist agree; not obvious relative to their level of attention
English
@jben0 @econnaturalist I suspect just a slightly more complex pattern ie with variation in the duration of the on and/or the off states would be fine, even if it is an obvious pattern for our conscious mind.
English
Joshua B. Miller ری ٹویٹ کیا
Fresh out of Man Sci today, an article by @ravivmg on women in tech. Raviv matches candidates self reported programming skills to observed programmings skills from open source code to see how self-reported skills vary from observed skills.
You know where this is going...
English
Joshua B. Miller ری ٹویٹ کیا
After advising PhD & Master students for over a decade, there is one thing I find most students need to unlearn: the half-ass work mentality acquired during years of tests and homework. Let me explain (thread 🧵). 1/N #AcademicTwitter
Toulouse, France 🇫🇷 English