Tropical Penguin

🐧 Tropical Penguin Research - now live! A paid Discord community focused on educational market research for traders & investors who want stronger process, better theses, and structured discussion. What you get: • Market commentary + thematic research • SMID-cap value-focused thesis breakdowns • Valuation frameworks + assumption tracking • Watchlists + research follow-ups • Delayed trade-journal style reflections for learning (not real-time alerts) • Community Q&A + discussion What this is NOT: • Not personalized financial advice • Not “buy/sell” signals or copy-trading • Not a promise of returns Transparency I may discuss securities I own or am considering. When relevant, I’ll disclose whether I currently hold the security in that post/thread. You’re responsible for your own decisions and due diligence. Pricing ✅ $10.99 CAD/month ✅ 7-day trial Join here: whop.com/tropical-pengu… Disclaimer: This is general educational information and market commentary only — not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

@SandyBrandyy @peonyKingOF Yes. Will DM you

@jdm_trades @peonyKingOF Do you have active DD on them? Digging in right now.

dental a 400m opp for $DDD

@pepemoonboy The reason their multiples are low is bc the market discounts a possible China invasion in the near future.

@pepemoonboy PLAB and ASX too much Taiwan risk.

New AI portfolio I started in March lowkey starting to cook 👀

A company is entering the optical pluggable module arena with their 800G DR8 linear pluggable optics and no one is talking about it. 🤫

A very disappointing price action on AP. Q4 was not too bad but the issue with these small companies is the lack of guidance, leaving the market guessing. Outcome is predictable, big flush after earnings. IMO this company is undervalued at $6, very undervalued, but no guidance makes things dicey. I expect their Q1 to be exceptionally strong.

$AP earnings this Monday AMC. I am expecting a bullish 2026 guidance. Reminder: this company is the #1 supplier of centrifugal pumps for US Navy Combat Ships. Also supplies heat exchangers / heat transfers coil used in nuclear power, industrial processes, HVAC. And, they also produce large custom air-handling systems used in critical environments , industdial buildings. This segment represents right now a little more than 40% of its current EBITDA. They are at the centre of many hot themes like US Maritime Domestic Capacity expansion, Data Centres, Nuclear power, grid expansion. What else, management had already tipped their hand this week by announcing that their orders in the ALP segment has grown 73% compared to the same period last year.

@peonyKingOF DDD

Solaris Energy $SEI has acted extremely well in this chop. This oil & gas company based on Texas is quickly turning into a power-as-a-service (PaaS) company in response to insatiable power demand in the US. When you think of Solaris, think about Uber, but for electricity. From an operational standpoint, what differentiates Solaris in this space is their HVMVLV acquisition. Solaris is more than a raw source of power, they also have electrical control/distribution expertise. They are able to support complex 1+ GW loads with their modular turbines, reciprocating engines, BESS, and redundancy. They have a real competitive edge in rapid deployment and AI load matching versus alternatives. Management's execution has been flawless, and the acquistion of HVMVLV opens up their TAM to other areas other than DCs. Current fleet at 760MW with a clear plan to deploy 2.2GW by 2028. In their last quarter, Solaris has met and exceeded expectations. Full-year 2025 revenue rose to $622 million from $313 million in 2024 while adjusted EBITDA increased to $244 million from $103 million. Management also guided to $72–77 million of adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 and $76–84 million for Q2 2026, which suggests the growth trend is continuing. On a GAAP basis, the company was also profitable for full-year 2025, with $58.4 million of net income versus $28.9 million in 2024. The only thing that looks ugly at first glance is Q4 GAAP net income, which was negative $3.5 million, but that was distorted by a $41.5 million loss on extinguishment of debt tied to refinancing after the convertible issuance, not by an operating collapse. There is a lot more to say about Solaris. I really enjoyed their last earnings and their mantra "from molecule to electron". They are transitioning fast from an Oil & Gas equipment company to a power solutions provider in perhaps the hottest theme in 2026. Companies are scrambling to contract power for hyperscalers, SEI is primed to be a huge beneficiary with their PaaS business and strong know-how and execution for quick power deployment. I own shares, please do your own research.

@MSmicrocaps x.com/i/status/20295…

@MSmicrocaps Is this AP?

Data center/nuclear/defense wrapped up into one: Combing through our microcap quality index. It’s a pleasant surprise when a stock you own, that’s already profitable & cheap, is on the cusp of an upward valuation re-rate due to “hot” trends surfacing as potential catalysts.

@BlackScholesMan Have you seen this video @BlackScholesMan ? youtube.com/watch?v=btM0Qk… It's like they predicted what would happen 6 months ago...

After the past two weeks everyone will be getting C-UAs contracts I suspect

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 C-UAS, drones, maritime environment...Who you gonna call?

I completely disagree. Have you lived in South America, Africa and parts of Asia for an extended period of time? The quality of institutions is several layers below the US. Corruption, at great scale, is normal occurrence. Sure population is younger, countries have some structural advantages, but the average human capital is so much lower than Americans. Not just average but top too. I believe you are overestimating EM ability to sustain growth. Things can change quickly, for the worse.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

Burry's opened a post yesterday that makes a lot of sense and sort of explains why retail is experiencing drawdow/pullback or even crash like levels in individual stocks while SPY, SPX, QQQ are close to ATH. Basically people continues to contribute to ETFs, which is less responsive to market dynamics. OTOH, liquidity for individual stocks outside the major indices esp dries up and become more volatile and chaotic under the surface.

@JaguarAnalytics Why isn't this showing up in the $VIX?

Market internals are registering signs of panic. Certainly not as extreme as 7-sigma April Liberation crash. But getting close: -- 10day Equity P/C Ratio 0.66 -- NYMO closed at -87; NYSI freefall -- VIX:VXV ratio above 1.0x, extreme -- % of S&P stocks below 50day at 68%

Disregarding the primes, there is not a better US stock out there than $DRS for ISR/C-UAV exposure. This theme represents at least 65% of Leonardo's total revenue. ISR/C-UAS is one of the biggest themes to emerge from the current ME conflict. DRS is also relatively cheap if you compare with peers of similar size who are already trading at considerable premium such as KTOS, CW, MRCY.

@BlackScholesMan Their ASC segment accounts for 65% of their revenues, and some of their IMS side also has some exposure to those themes. Management was very explicitly in their last earnings call about ISR/C-UAS demand.

@BlackScholesMan I really like $DRS here. As far mid-ish and small cap goes (Leonardo a little bit over mid cap), I don't see another company with more exposure to ISR and C-UAS technology than them.