Markus Thielen

The calls that defined the cycle + Deep Dives + Digital Asset Research markusthielen.com

@10xResearch And also as a reminder our view from early November: 10x Research's Markus Thielen Says 2026 Could Bring A Bear Market -> youtu.be/iR3WXZzMxGM

The Clock Is Ticking for Bitcoin - Two Weeks. Two Events. Every report we write asks the same core question: has the regime changed, and if so, what caused it, and what are the implications? Markets are complex; every new data point can alter the trajectory. That was precisely the exercise on May 16, 2026, when we published "Bitcoin Isn't an Inflation Hedge. Here's Why That Distinction Could Cost You." We wrote: "Dangerously in the current environment, Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge; it is a liquidity hedge. It rises when monetary conditions loosen and falls when they tighten. With markets now pricing 45 basis points of Fed tightening, a dramatic reversal from the 2.6 cuts priced in September 2025, the liquidity backdrop has turned materially hostile. Oil prices are up 40% since the conflict in Iran began. CPI has risen from 2.4% to 3.8%. PPI has surged from 2.9% to 6.0%, with more in the pipeline. Bond markets have responded: the 2-year is back above 4.0%, the 10-year has reclaimed 4.5%, the 30-year has breached 5.0%. The last two times this configuration deteriorated, Trump intervened, with tariff rollbacks and a ceasefire announcement. No equivalent backstop exists today. Macro data moves slowly; market attention moves erratically. The hardest thing to predict is not the data itself, but the moment investors decide to care. This week may have been that inflection point. The FOMC's June meeting will likely strip the easing bias from its statement. We are using Bitcoin's 30-day moving average ($78,404) as our stop for long positions and view Ethereum as the cleaner short." That week was the inflection point. Bitcoin fell 23% from our stop. Ethereum, our preferred short, fell 30%. Many traders were surprised. Only those with the right framework have seen this coming. Below, we break down what is truly driving markets and what to expect over the next two weeks and beyond. Link in the comments section to our latest, must-read, report.

@10xResearch This report is an update to our 2026 roadmap. youtu.be/5BShDgE5Wwc

ETH sub $1,700… getting close to FTX levels …update.10xresearch.com/p/hedging-bitc…

Bitcoin's Gravitational Centre: A Pattern Precise Enough to Scare You There is a pattern in Bitcoin's price history precise enough to project cycle peaks and troughs to within days, not weeks, not months, across a decade of the most chaotic asset ever created. It has called every major turning point. It carries a specific target for the cycle low. It carries a specific date. And it raises a question that is either unsettling or extraordinary, depending on how seriously you take it: Did Satoshi design this deliberately? It might have not been a coincidence when and how the Bitcoin whitepaper was released.. The date is of great historical importance. Pattern analysis has identified the precise moments when Bitcoin peaks and bottoms, and the accuracy is difficult to dismiss. What is harder to explain is that these mathematical inflection points consistently overlap with something older and less quantifiable: seasonal forces that predate markets, central banks, and the internet by millennia. Whether the math drives the pattern or merely rhymes with it, the result is the same. We can calculate the expected timing of this cycle's low, and project the precise target for the next bull market peak. The full analysis, the pattern, the targets, the date, and why a 5,000-year-old calendar may be the most important chart in crypto, is inside.

@BITofficial_EN Very important report and explains precisely what is driving Bitcoin ….

📃#BITOnTarget Report - June 4, 2026 ⬇️ Two Engines Down: What Has Grounded the Bitcoin Rebound? #BIT #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #MacroMarkets #RateCutExpectations #InstitutionalCrypto

There is an institutional unwind that is primarily focused on BTC and ETH as the risk managers are stepping in and taking over the portfolios … however there are plenty of opportunities as we have shown last week and again showing this week in today’s report with lots of catalysts

Amid the Bitcoin Crash, Our Two Top Picks Returned +29% and +16% There is a stark contrast between the cryptocurrencies dominating the negative news flow and heavy losses and those quietly generating strong returns in the background. Bitcoin entered a bearish trend and as pointed out last week, two tokens we flagged defied the selloff entirely. Stellar (XLM) and Jito (JTO) returned +29% and +16% respectively, against a -13% decline in Bitcoin. Both were called out in last week's report as carrying "idiosyncratic upside momentum driven by project-specific catalysts", and they delivered. Between mid-March and mid-May, our Trading Signals crypto equities model generated 14 signals. 12 of the 14 showed positive returns; 10 are fully closed. Across closed trades, the average return was +28.8%. This is precisely what the 10x Model Portfolio is built to capture. Since its launch on April 9, 2026, Bitcoin is down -9%. The portfolio is up +23.5%. That's a +32.5% outperformance in one of the more challenging stretches the market has seen. Knowing where the catalysts are and positioning ahead of them is what separates token selection from index exposure. Traders who followed our framework and preferred positions are navigating this selloff from a position of strength, while many others are under pressure. That composure matters: the next decision is best made with a clear head, not under duress. Despite the challenges that Bitcoin/Ethereum are facing, there are plenty of opportunities with real catalysts as we show below as this week's report is another map of where those catalysts are unfolding. Link to the full report, including 50+ charts, flagged the "top charts" with catalysts...this is your idea machine booklet... every week...

@10xResearch How times have changed … SpaceX was valued at $150bn 3 years ago …

Fun fact: SpaceX IPO is larger than: BTC + ETH + BNB + XRP + SOL combined....

@10xResearch when the bull market ends, the promoters disappear, by force, by scandal, or simply because their moment has passed. The next bull market doesn't recycle them. It can't. New buyers require new faces, new stories, new voices they can believe in.

Every Bitcoin Bull Market Has a Preacher. This One Has Run Out of Sermons. But a New One Is Coming. Some have raised concerns that quantum computing poses an existential threat to Bitcoin, and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and US software ETFs suggests both have been caught in the same AI-driven sentiment swings. But Bitcoin's latest leg lower is better explained by macro forces than AI-related swings. In addition, the market is digesting MicroStrategy's shift from accumulation to (expected) selective selling, a few coins here and there, not a forced liquidation event, with the latest $2 million selling a test run. That distinction matters. Managed selling is an overhang, not a crisis, and understanding the difference is part of understanding when this bear market ends. MicroStrategy holds 843,706 BTC against combined debt and preferred stock obligations of approximately $22.2 billion. That implies an equity (worth) zero level of roughly $26,000 per Bitcoin, the price at which the BTC reserve no longer covers liabilities, and equity holders are wiped out. In a prolonged bear market, that threshold is not inconceivable, and institutional risk managers know exactly where it is. Neither the quantum computing narrative nor MicroStrategy's sales are the real drivers of this Bitcoin market. Both are noise. Below, we explain what investors should be watching and what the signal looks like when you zoom out. This is still a bottom formation process, but a new bull market will eventually emerge, we explain the exact (single) data point matters. Let dive in, full report link below in the comments section.

@10xResearch We have been bullish and now $100 seems to be a target… but is this backed by fundamentals? The fundamentals of exchanges matter and are straight forward to value …

HYPE at $72: Overvalued, Fair Value, or the Next $100 Token? HYPE is @10xResearch subscribers' favorite token by a wide margin, nearly 70% named it their top pick in our May survey. The price has delivered, rallying 74% in a single month. But we've built a valuation model from scratch using 365 days of fee, volume, and user data, and what it shows gives us pause. The platform's fundamentals peaked in October 2025. Since then, fees are down 81%, revenue per user has collapsed 70%, and trading volumes have halved. The price hasn't noticed it, until now, perhaps it should. We run the numbers on what HYPE is actually worth, what it would take to get to $100, and why June 6 is a date every HYPE holder should have circled on their calendar. Together with our subscribers, we've been among HYPE's most consistent bulls. In a market where genuinely compelling tokens are scarce, HYPE has earned its place in our top ten. But a 74% rally in a single month demands scrutiny, so we've drilled into the numbers to assess whether this move is sustainable, where the next leg could take it, and what fair value looks like. Our detailed valuation model, attached in the comments section, breaks down exactly how HYPE should be priced, what a realistic recovery looks like, and under what conditions $100 becomes achievable. Full report below. @HyperliquidX

Crypto markets have had a rough week, Bitcoin fell 4%, and Ethereum fell 4.3%, and barely anyone is trading, which is usually a sign that people are waiting on the sidelines rather than actively buying or selling. The good news is that when sentiment gets this negative (Bitcoin's fear gauge just hit 10 out of 100), it has historically been a decent time to buy.

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Bottom Signal or Bull Trap? Several meaningful catalysts are converging in June that could prove significant for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. When we called the start of the Bitcoin bear market in October, our initial expectation was for a cycle low to form around the FIFA World Cup, and while our trend model remains bearish and our high-conviction Ethereum short from two weeks ago is playing out, the bottoming process may already be underway ahead of that window. Reversal indicators are beginning to flash signals that matter, both for short-term traders looking to position tactically and for longer-term investors seeking an entry point. Still, the headwinds are real and visible: ETF outflows, stablecoin contraction, and trading volumes at historic lows all point to near-zero conviction, but that is precisely the environment we anticipated for a major cycle bottom. Below, we outline the indicators and catalysts now in focus, as well as the trades worth considering. Join the distribution list and read the full report, link in the comments section.

@10xResearch @StellarOrg Just shows that there are still plenty of opportunities that are driven by fundamentals and genuine improvements ….only have to find them… see our weekly altcoin catalyst report: signal.10xresearch.com/p/beyond-bitco…

@StellarOrg XLM was one of our top charts in our One Liners report last week, up 76% over the last 7 days. What is going on? 1) Stellar (XLM-USDT is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with a 1-week change of +75.6%) 2) DTCC, custodian of over $114 trillion in assets, announced a partnership with the Stellar Development Foundation to tokenize Russell 1000 equities, ETFs, and US Treasuries on Stellar's public blockchain, targeting live assets by early 2027. 3) Cash App (Block) rolled out USDC payments on Stellar for its 60 million users, thereby directly expanding the network's real-world payment utility. 4) Bermuda confirmed it will migrate its national payment services to Stellar, becoming the first government to move toward a fully on-chain economy and cutting merchant fees that currently run as high as 10%. What other coins are we focusing on? See link in the comments section for full report.

One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now Kaspa — A delay to the Toccata hard fork (now June 5–20) created short-term uncertainty, sending KAS down 8.2% despite long-term ZK upgrade significance. Pudgy Penguins — A 712.4M token unlock drove a 10.4% drop, with a Manchester City partnership providing only marginal sentiment support. Sui — Despite strong catalysts (Grayscale GSUI, gasless transfers, CME futures launch), monthly unlock pressure kept SUI down 10.6%. NEAR — Arthur Hayes naming NEAR his "holy trinity" triggered a 30%+ single-day spike with $9M+ in short liquidations, driving a 48.6% weekly gain. Pendle — Despite STRC-linked TVL surpassing $318M and token emissions ending, broader DeFi weakness kept Pendle down 14.2%. Monero — The FCMP++ privacy upgrade strengthened anonymity, but incoming EU AMLR custodial bans by 2027 remain a structural ceiling; broadly flat at –1.6%. Filecoin — Rising enterprise SSD prices and the mainnet launch of Filecoin Onchain Cloud position FIL as a cost-efficient AI storage layer; up 6.9%. Hyperliquid — SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals drove record volume, a new ATH, and $40M in Bitwise BHYP ETF inflows, pushing HYPE up 9.2%. Cosmos — A $6.4M raise by co-founder Ethan Buchman's startup Cycles provided the primary catalyst for ATOM's 6.3% gain. Zcash — Despite a sharp 18.9% weekly pullback from the 650%+ rally, structural catalysts including Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF filing and 30% shielded supply remain intact. Render — RENDER's inclusion in the "Made-in-USA" AI token rotation narrative alongside NEAR and WLD drove an 11.7% gain on DePIN/AI compute momentum. Ondo — An anticipated SEC innovation exemption and DTCC partnership validate Ondo's 60%+ tokenized stock market share, though the week was overshadowed by founder Nathan Allman's unexpected passing. Sei — Binance confirming SEIEVM migration support and the Giga upgrade targeting 200,000+ TPS drove SEI up 9.8%, with a June 15 unlock adding near-term supply risk. Worldcoin — Eightco Holdings disclosing a 283M WLD position and an upcoming 43% emissions cut on July 24 drove WLD up 38% on institutional accumulation and supply catalyst conviction. This Week's Edition This week's One Liners cover 25 cryptocurrencies and 19 crypto equities, providing the broadest weekly snapshot of what moved, why it moved, and which catalysts could drive the next leg. The standout themes are highlighted below. For busy investors, this context is the difference between reacting to price and anticipating it. Keen to know which crypto currencies and which crypto equities look promising for the weeks ahead? Subscribers continue below for the full breakdown, link in the comments section.

@10xResearch Hyperliquid was one of top three obvious trades in crypto this month…. Want to know what’s next? Read the report below