Moon Full (Ø,G)

"Who led the hype, and who spoke the truth?" If this process is not a typical bearish cycle, then I honestly don’t see why analysis is even necessary. Bearish analysts have been labeled as “garbage” or “fearmongers” and repeatedly attacked. But after reaching this point with no real response or preparation, who exactly was responsible for leading things here? Even now, I can’t help but ask: who was truly misleading people? Contrary to expectations, the price fell sharply below $100,000 and eventually dropped into the $80,000–$90,000 range. Let’s assume this entire move was “a deliberate scheme by whales to deceive retail investors, create disappointment, and force them out.” Even under that assumption, there was already no practical way to respond. Then the price broke down again. This time, into the mid-$70,000 range. People pointed to Strategy(MSTR) average Bitcoin entry price and said this was “another trap,” claiming price would rise again from here. But what if it breaks down once more? Then we’re at $60,000. And again, a new explanation appears: “This is also whale manipulation. Just another shakeout.” At what point does this logic stop making sense? Can everything truly be explained as “manipulation”? If so, where is the standard? Whether it takes one year, three years, or ten, whether the drawdown is 50% or 90%, can every outcome simply be dismissed as “it was all a trap”? If that’s the case, this isn’t analysis—it’s closer to avoiding responsibility. Because regardless of what happens,the assumption is always the same: “Price will eventually go up.” Analysis built on that premise does not provide reference points or direction. It only serves as post-hoc justification for decisions that went wrong. After that, the narrative shifts. People who cling to hope turn their frustration outward and attack bearish views instead. But in reality, there was no response from the beginning. Even during the long consolidation around $90,000, most were simply holding onto one expectation: “Someone will step in and save the market.” That was all.