robert macIntosh II

Happy “Agony of Defeat Guy” Day if you’re observing it. 56 years ago today, March 21, 1970, a 22-year old Slovenian ski jumper Vinko Bogataj took the iconic spill at the World Ski Jumping Championships in West Germany. ABC stoped running Wide World of Sports in January 1998.

Brilliant move by Iran. They are planning to levy a 10% toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This will generate $73 billion a year, completely offsetting US sanctions and paying for war damages. Checkmate.

@MikeTFox5 We might still get some winds with the cold front. Yeah, we’ve had some severe storms in march. I’ve been trying to figure out a key on which way to lean in marginal, snow/severe and high/low temps events around here and I’m starting to lean towards ground temps+moisture cont.

@robertmacIntos3 Warmth always helps, but severe weather events this time of year do tend to be different beasts compared to the ones we get around summertime. These are move heavily shear/jet forced as opposed to cold pool & heavy convention based.

We'll be in a lull for a few hours here, but SPC still monitoring the final line along the front for damaging wind potential. Can't rule out an isolated tornado warning with it either, but would likely be the "kink in the line" type like we saw this morning. Latest HRRR running it through DC around 9pm tonight. Earlier west, later east! ⛈️

@MikeTFox5 I was skeptical of high end storms around here without the ground being warmer. We have a lot of water around here also and it’s still quite cold. Maybe the recent rains have put a dent in the drought. I sure the farmers are happy.

@MikeTFox5 Wasn’t the meat of today’s weather supposed to happen between 3-7/9 pm?The earlier stuff wasn’t going to be that much. Hence to early dismissal of schools

@dougkammerer dumping sleet in Centreville Va

@granthpaulsen Only 35 more players to go. Keep it up.

Commanders likely just signed a starting safety in Nick Cross. 🏈 24; 4 year vet 🏈 Fast; ran a 4.34 40 🏈 34 starts with IND last 2 yrs 🏈 Box player, 130 tackles 🏈 5 TFLs, 6 QBH, 2.5 sacks Commanders have gotten so much younger and faster on defense.

@MikeTFox5 @fox5dc Dumping in Manassas. Looks like the IVT has set up.

Here we go! Winter storm is ramping up across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Rain finally changing over to mostly snow across most of our local region. Between now and about midnight to 1am for the bulk of accumulations in the I-95 corridor locally! Tracking live on @fox5dc

@MikeTFox5 I quick internet search says DC got 18”.

Very cool analog! Eerily similar surface at this time stamp to the Blizzard of 1978, but bit different 500mb setup! DC only got 2.2” from this storm. Baltimore got 9.1”. Dulles got 1.2”. Image 1: 1978 Surface Reanalysis Image 2: 1978 500mb Reanalysis Image 3: 1978 Storm Total Snowfall Image 4: Current Forecast 18z GFS 500mb

@dougkammerer 26mb pressure drop in 12 hours and it can only come up with 45 mph gusts on the coast. It’ll be howling at 60-65mph sustained. Again underdone by 25-30%.

@dougkammerer The euro is still underdone on totals by about 25-30%. Especially closer to the coast.

Latest European is out and it has more of what we are thinking. The storm looks closer to the coast, but still has rain to melting snow during the day and accumulating snow at night. We will be updating our map this evening, but this is still close to our original totals of 2-6+

@MikeTFox5 The HRRR has a different surface presentation then its 850 and 925 mb would suggest. Surface marginal at 35°. Understand roads will be an issue.

The HRRR now goes out through 7pm Sunday with it's new 0z cycle. *Shows rain/mix at onset. *Changes to a lighter snow Sunday afternoon DC & North...accumulations struggle at this time. Lots of "white rain" with surface temps above freezing. *Does show pretty decent banding into Sunday night as the storm intensifies off the Delmarva coastline. Snow accumulations around DC ramp up at this time. *NOTE in the snowfall graphic...that is not a storm total as it is still snowing pretty widespread as the model reaches the end of it's cycle. It only forecasts out 48 hours. 0z NAM rolling in now will have all eyes. Then the 0z GFS, and EURO later tonight.

@AccuRayno Do not EVER think that. Absolutely invaluable information. Can’t thank you enough.

I am beginning to think the live Videos I do are not worth the time and effort

@AccuRayno Missing 1?

(2) So now the trof becomes negatively tilted quickedr sun am which means the southern piece of energy is closer to the coast on the 18z run (left) vs the 12z ru (right). Maps are from 7pm Sun. Note circled area. Now with trof negative the storm is closer to the coast. see (3)

@MikeTFox5 Amazing the amount of money spent on the GFS and 3 days out its putting out that kind of solution. At day 16 it’s excusable. But if it goes to an inch in a day it’s a giant piece of 💩 that can never be trusted again!

Well that was not the GFS run I was expecting 😅😅 Look it’s a beautiful run. But fact of the matter is it is very much on an island right now with this solution. So be extremely skeptical…I do NOT believe it at this time. Be warned, you’ll see snow maps from it circulating, they show 2-3 feet of snow. Like I said in my live yesterday, don’t believe any snowfall totals yet. We are not in the range where QPF will settle down yet. Numbers will continue to change. It’s a beautiful run but it’s likely fantasy. Though we’ll await the 12z European Suite and see what the fresh data suggests.

@capitalweather It strange to have the euro in doubt in the 3-7 day window. That’s usually its strongest area. It hasn’t performed that well this winter.

Honest update on Sunday-Sunday night storm: We don't know too much more today (Wednesday) than yesterday. Anything from just conversational snowflakes to several inches of snow is in play. Yesterday we said that although multiple models were signaling the potential for significant snow in the D.C. area, several ingredients would need to come together for a snowstorm here, and that "confidence in accumulating snow for our region on Sunday is too low to change any plans. That may or may not change by this time tomorrow." Well, it has not changed. Like yesterday, some models still suggest the possibility of accumulating snow. And, like yesterday, the European model -- often, but not always, the most accurate -- still shows little to no snow accumulation. The main question, that can't be answered yet, is what happens after the storm's low-pressure center likely develops near the Carolina coast early Sunday: * Does it intensify strongly enough and close enough to the coast to generate heavy precipitation over the D.C. area that chills the atmosphere near ground level close to freezing, resulting in significant snow accumulation? * Or, is the intensification weaker and/or further offshore, resulting in lighter precipitation over the D.C. area that is more rain than snow, and warmer temperatures that limit snow accumulation potential? If we do see impactful accumulating snow, the best chance is probably not until late Sunday afternoon or night. Any precipitation earlier than that looks to be lighter rain or snow with temperatures too warm for accumulation other than perhaps on grass. Otherwise, for now, this continues to be a wait-and-see situation for at least one more day.

@MikeTFox5 No euro?

Alright weather twitter...which new 0z model are we rooting for tonight... 🍿😎

@capitalweather The euro has had issues with p type this year. I bet we see more snow falling than modeled with no accumulation due to low level temps. Still end up with zero on the ground but it’ll look nice.

The Sunday storm looks like mostly rain for the D.C. area, still with a chance of some snow or sleet mixing in. However, models continue to struggle nailing down the exact track of a storm whose low-pressure center should pass south of the region, so confidence remains low in how much precipitation we see. A few key points: * The timing window for precipitation in the D.C. area looks like between 10 a.m. Sunday and 2 a.m. Monday. * The balance of model data suggests the storm will come far enough north to give the D.C. area at least some precipitation, but there is still some chance (about 20-30%) the storm misses to our south. * Assuming we do get precipitation, much of it should be in the form of rain. But periods of snow or wintry mix can't be ruled out, especially north of the Beltway. It will probably be too warm during the late morning and afternoon for any wintry accumulation. * If there is a heavy enough period or snow or wintry mix during the evening into overnight, there is an outside shot at ground temperatures cooling close enough to freezing for a slushy accumulation, especially north of the Beltway. Model forecasts range from as much as 1 inch of liquid precipitation, to no precipitation with the storm veering south of our region. If the heavier amounts of rain were to materialize (more likely the farther south you are) then there could be localized flooding due to the combination of rain and residual snowpack.

@lindseyvonn You pointed the tips downhill and let it rip. You’ll be good in a couple months. Most humans who have ever existed on the planet have never felt what 80mph on your feet is like. Try to give them grace. Get well soon.

A little update from me…❤️ thank you for all the love and support. Helps me so much🙏🏻

@FBIDirectorKash @LauraLoomer Who the heck goes to the front door with a camera to commit kidnapping or any crime?

Additional recovered images from the same camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door the morning of her disappearance, including two videos of the individual. Anyone with information, please contact 1-800-CALL-FBI or visit tips.fbi.gov

New images in the search for Nancy Guthrie:   Over the last eight days, the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department have been working closely with our private sector partners to continue to recover any images or video footage from Nancy Guthrie’s home that may have been lost, corrupted, or inaccessible due to a variety of factors - including the removal of recording devices. The video was recovered from residual data located in backend systems.   Working with our partners - as of this morning, law enforcement has uncovered these previously inaccessible new images showing an armed individual appearing to have tampered with the camera at Nancy Guthrie's front door the morning of her disappearance.   Anyone with information, please contact 1-800-CALL-FBI or visit tips.fbi.gov