Simple S.

@SPYderMomTrades @ALLtheHardways1 You weren't trading from a theme park at Universal Studios, from what I gathered. Although trading short term options contracts with sufficient leverage to go way up or way down in the space of being in a doctor's appointment is almost as questionable, but not quite.

@simplesimon1992 @ALLtheHardways1 Not addiction, just accountability. I share the wins and the losses so people can actually learn. That’s called transparency

I didn’t get beat by the market today. I broke my own rules. Traded away from my computer No technicals Stacked positions Held losers way too long And the biggest one… my edge is scalping and I wasn’t scalping today. I don’t know what the fuck I was thinking. Gave back my entire week and then some. One of my biggest losses to date. This one hurts because it was 100% avoidable. Resetting. Back to discipline. That’s the only edge that matters.

@ALLtheHardways1 @SPYderMomTrades Addict behaviour. Tone it down.

@SPYderMomTrades Me too traded on the plane and at Universal Studios. 🤦‍♂️

@traderhc I liked you right up until you used AI to write your response. That is v. poor. As for stagflation, OECD upgraded US GDP growth last week by 0.3%. There will be huge demand for US energy, and we are about to start Natural Gas season with a chunk of Qatari production offline, too

The difference this time is they might actually have the receipts. ISM Prices Paid at 78.3 with oil at $111 and NFP printing -92k . that's not just people crying wolf anymore. Core PCE already at 3.06% with the Fed pinned at 3.50-3.75% and zero cuts priced through year-end. The broken clock crowd has been early for years, but the setup is finally here: supply-side inflation plus weakening labor. That's the textbook definition, not just a Twitter buzzword. What I'm watching is whether this oil shock feeds through to services inflation or stays contained in energy. If shelter keeps cooling but energy rips, the Fed gets the worst possible hand . can't cut into a labor market that's softening because input costs won't let them. $XLY at $108 sitting 2.8% off its 52-week low tells you the consumer is already voting with their wallet.

Oil rips 11.5% in a single session. $111 crude. Biggest move in years. Energy stocks couldn't even hold their gains. $XLY closed at $108.15, barely 2.8% above its 52-week low. That's the market telling you $111 oil isn't a bull signal. It's a consumer tax. When crude spikes on supply disruption instead of demand growth, the second-order effect is spending destruction. History says oil above $110 triggers consumer rollover within 60-90 days. The Fed can't cut into an oil shock. Can't hike into a slowing economy. Textbook stagflation box. I think $XLY breaks below 108.15 in the next two weeks. The sector rotation is already screaming it. What's your read on oil here, demand killer or something else? Okay then

@StrizziJ 20% off highs, having made a new low 10 days ago, and in a clear bear flag. Perhaps put the self-congratulation on ice.

I am waiting for the public apology of those who thought gold would continue to go down. I will forgive you if you comment below

@StanphylCap How has it been accomplished? Iran remain able to fire ballistic missiles. Much of the research labs are far, far underground, beyond even the reach of bunker bombs.

This point is so obvious, I don't understand how people miss it: The primary mission here was "remove Iran's ability to militarily threaten the rest of the world." (Regime change would've just been "a nice bonus.") With or without "a deal," that mission will be accomplished.

@Chris14813296 @AllenT808 @ZeeContrarian1 "further upside looks limited to me." followed by +11% in the less than 24 hour intervening period. Are you known to be a simple man, Chris?

@AllenT808 @ZeeContrarian1 Did oil make a new high?

I think we may have already seen the peak prices for oil. If there’s a ground operation, it could mark a final act and trigger a sell-the-news reaction. If there isn’t, that may also act as resolution, with risk premium fading. In both cases, further upside looks limited to me.

@ZeeContrarian1 11% up since your note: "further upside looks limited to me." Will not comment how your aptitude in analysis looks to me.

@investingluc Stop trying to analyse literally day-to-day. Absolute fool's errand.

Odd. Very odd. Correlations getting wonky here. $SPY flat (was green). $VIX very green. Oil very green. 10yr yields green. Usually means something is moving underneath the surface...super weird for them all to move together like this. Typically when this happens, it means one of three things: > upside is being hedged (no one trusts the move) - equities drifting higher - but big $$$ still buying protection > macro pressure building under the surface - oil still ripping - but equities still holding - surface strength, underlying stress > we’re in a transition phase with no clear narrative - correlations act weird/off - no clear, dominant narrative Today tells me that the market is trying to make a decision. Tape is very dirty. Sit tight.

@PrepperCanadian Not all mutually exclusive.

As I have said from day one, Iran has three options. 1) Unleash its conventional arsenal in a way that is actually meaningful and restores deterrence. 2) Do a demonstrative nuclear detonation. 3) Ride it out until oil hits $200 and forces concessions, but likely have your country destroyed in the process. Anything short of that will not matter. Proportional responses and waiting to get hit before retaliating is just a slower way to die. Relying on war crimes tribunals and impeachment is a fantasy, they will stop elections if they have to, they havent even run the false flag yet.

@MaMoMVPY What does a Four-Star General know that a drunkard Fox News host does not?

So it appears that the US Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George, has apparently been fired. One must fear that the general has contradicted Hegseth, and that Hegseth wants someone who follows orders - even when those orders are war crimes. And yes, I am afraid I cannot help but think that Trump is not capable of ending this without looking like a complete loser, and that he will therefore simply make it more and more extreme. One can only imagine where that might lead.

@MakerWaddles Bingo. We haven't had one single CPI print yet. Some of us are old enough to remember 4% one-day drops on CPI reports in 2022, typically after a week of grind-up action.

The $SPX intervention is futile as long as crude keeps going like this

@AwokeSolom56409 @Its_ereko When AI writing-slop meets AI writing-slop. Most impressive, you two.

This isn’t just a critique of a single leader; it’s a brutal autopsy of modern diplomacy. When "national interest" is replaced by "ego management," the foundation of international alliances shifts from shared values to a fragile transaction of flattery. Ishiba isn't just breaking a Japanese taboo—he’s exposing the reality that when a superpower’s policy is dictated by a single person's mood, the rest of the world stops being allies and starts being handlers

🇯🇵 Former Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba just dropped the truth about Trump. I met him three times. If you tell him he is wrong, he gets angry right away. You cannot say that. You have to say you are absolutely right and flatter him to save face. That guy judges everything by loss or gain. This is not a secret. This is how the US operates. Flatter the leader. Stroke the ego. Pretend he is always right. That is not diplomacy. That is servitude. Japan has been doing this for decades. Bowing to Washington. Flattering US presidents. Ignoring its own interests. Ishiba is speaking the truth that Japanese politicians usually hide. Trump cannot handle criticism. He cannot handle being wrong. He judges everything by what benefits him. Not what benefits the US. Not what benefits Japan. What benefits him. The world knows this. The US knows this. But no one says it out loud. Ishiba just did. The mask is off. The empire is run by a man who cannot be told he is wrong. And the world is expected to bow. Japan is waking up. The rest of the world is watching.

@DiveBomb321 Potentially ... although US can easily moot an export ban on energy instead. If they rush into a massacre that is recorded on Iranian FPV drones & sent viral (much like Rus/Ukr footage), there's probably reasonably fair odds something happens to a member of the T Family on mland

@simplesimon1992 Yeah, but if the strait continues to stay this closed, I think there might be a rush. 😂🤷‍♂️

Trump's speech was a big nothing burger. They have nothing new and no magic solutions. I think there is a greater chance of boots on the ground this weekend.

@endless_frank Why would they QE & rate cut into an inflationary market? Are you retarded?

If there is no massive financial intervention immediately e.g. QE, rate cuts, stimulus checks etc, markets are doomed like they were when the first case of Covid showed up in New Rochelle, NY in late Feb 2020. This administration is lost about what is coming. That’s the tweet.

@Jack_McClendon Hates looking like a loser? He's a multi, multi time bankrupt. Optics are irrelevant. In it for the $$$. Same as it ever was.

Gotta hand it to the man. He really hates high oil prices. More than that though, he really, really hates looking like a loser.

@onechancefreedm Shame you ruined a good video with your AI word salad slop.

Berkshire Is Prepared For Something Bigger Than A Dip Buffett is not saying nothing is wrong. He is saying this still is not real pain. That distinction matters because a market that is only 5% or 6% cheaper is not suddenly attractive to someone who has spent a lifetime waiting for true mispricing. He has seen actual repricings. The kind that crack confidence, force liquidations, and move assets from weak hands to strong ones. This, in his view, is not that. Here’s the real tell. Not the interview. The balance sheet. Berkshire entered 2026 with roughly $373.3 billion in cash and short term U.S. Treasuries, including about $321.4 billion in T-bills, and another $17 billion in bills was reportedly added in late March. Berkshire calls that dry powder. And since Berkshire still says it would rather own productive businesses than Treasuries, that pile is not a preference. It is a verdict. And the verdict is simple. Buffett still does not think the board has been reset. Greg Abel may now be CEO, but Buffett is still chairman, still around the capital allocation process, and still close enough to matter. So this is not a retired legend making casual observations from the sidelines. It is a man who has been positioning for a harsher environment for quite a while, quietly telling you this correction still has not produced the kind of terms Berkshire waits for. History helps here. Buffett does not build liquidity like this because he wants to feel comfortable. He builds it so Berkshire can be the one buyer with cash, credibility, and no financing problem when markets move from discomfort to distress. That was the playbook with Goldman and GE in 2008, and Bank of America in 2011. He waits for the moment when fear, valuation, and funding stress collide hard enough to create truly asymmetric opportunity. That is the signal. Not that everything is fine. Not that collapse is guaranteed. Just that this still is not the kind of dislocation that rewrites the board. And when one of the wisest investors of all time is telling you that in his usual understated way, ignoring him is not skepticism. It is complacency.

@Norseman1 Genuinely startled that you called 21/22 inflationary-bear so well, but have missed all the hallmarks of 26 inflationary-bear. And yes, this was a bear market rally as noted.

Opposite of what you see at major market tops.

@doctorjamil @PeteHegseth @EndGameWW3 You're doing a disservice to that child. Hegseth is equal parts malice and stupidity.

@PeteHegseth @EndGameWW3 From “liberating” the people to blasting them “back to the Stone Age”. Yes, your objectives have always been clear and your execution (of 157 school girls) flawless.

Back to the Stone Age.