Windmill Capital

The sell-off was mechanical and liquidity-driven. The fundamentals of dollar weakness, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical distrust of fiat are still intact. Gold is the only asset without a counterparty. The question isn't whether it recovers. It's when.

So is it over? JPMorgan: $6,300 by year-end 2026 Deutsche Bank: $6,000 Goldman Sachs: $5,400 All three call it a tactical correction, not a structural reversal. Central banks are still forecast to buy ~800t in 2026. The demand story hasn't changed.

Gold went from $2,624 to $5,589/ounce in 13 months. Since then, it has lost ~16%. Here's the full story.

₹17 in 1991. ₹93 today. 4 to 5% depreciation every year for 34 years. Structural, not seasonal. Some things are just background noise. Worth knowing which ones.

Who wins: IT and pharma exporters, NRIs, inbound tourism. Who loses: Fuel importers, students abroad, USD debt holders.

The rupee is at ₹93. Down 8.5% in a year. Before you panic, three things worth knowing: Not a crisis. Not incompetence. Not uniform bad news. Here's what the data actually says. 🧵

Join us this Wednesday, 25th March, at 5:00 PM for a webinar with Naveen KR (@Naveen_KRaj) from @windmillcapHQ , where we'll discuss a quant approach to mid & smallcap investing. We'll also shine a spotlight on mid & smallcap focused portfolio offerings. You can set your reminders here: youtube.com/live/1OgzP9KwP…

India recovers from these cycles; history is clear on that. The question is whether your portfolio is built for the path through.

Not all sectors fall the same way. Upstream Oil & Gas (ONGC), defence, pharma: relative hedges. OMCs, aviation: hardest hit.

A strait you've heard about all week just became the most important variable in your portfolio. Here's the five-domino chain from Hormuz to the Nifty. 🧵