RAND Forecasting Initiative

INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) RFI harnesses crowdsourced forecasting to enhance RAND analyst and decision-makers' toolkits. Learn more: rand.org/global-and-eme…

Forecast with us on governance & stability in #Africa and African diaspora countries to inform RAND analysts and U.S. policymakers. Learn more and contribute to this research by forecasting on our latest questions >> randforecastinginitiative.org/feature/rfi-af… #AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting

Then, see perspectives from our crowd and share your own forecast >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378…

Since @RANDCorporation's article was published, INFER's crowd forecast has nearly doubled, now saying there's a 43% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year. Read RAND's article to learn how they’re using crowd forecasting >> rand.org/pubs/commentar…

Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership? INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025. Tell us what you think >> infer-pub.com/questions/1413…

@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people! This was my favorite question of this month: On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? infer-pub.com/questions/1414…

📱From smartphones to military systems, #semiconductors power our digital world. We're asking: What % of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas in 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1415

Pro forecaster @DippySkippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him. See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…

📊 NEW snapshot reports on #Iran's agenda for #nuclear weapons and #proxies are now available for download. By 31 May, several crowd forecast signals pointed to Iran's regional influence remaining at status quo or slightly deescalating. See more >> infer-pub.com/archive

Amid #election legitimacy concerns and alleged human rights violations in #Venezuela, we are seeking forecasts on this critical question >> infer-pub.com/questions/1399…

Notable update from our mid-month forecast snapshot report: The INFER crowd is currently forecasting a 53% chance (+23% in just the last 3 weeks) that #Russia will attack #Kharkiv, #Ukraine before Jan 2025. Read more from our latest snapshot report >> infer-pub.com/archive

We just launched a new strategic topic to understand the future of Open Radio Access Network. An #OpenRAN ecosystem would allow companies like Verizon and AT&T to use vendor-neutral hardware and software, avoiding reliance on one provider. Read more >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/future…

We asked INFER Pro Forecaster and geopolitical consultant ScottEastman: What have you learned from working with top level forecasters both in your field and in the INFER Pro program? Hear from several top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson… #crowdforecasting

Our newly released #Russia-#Ukraine report spotlighted a notable forecast shift – our crowd now says there's a 21% chance that #Russia will invade #Moldova before April 2027. Read more from our forecasters on this issue and others >> infer-pub.com/archive

📊NEW snapshot reports on the #RussiaUkraineWar and #Iran's #nuclear and regional agenda are now available for download. These include a spotlight on the signal with a notable forecast shift over the past month. See our latest forecast reports >> infer-pub.com/archive

📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance. What do you think? >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378

Critical #UkraineRussiaWar forecast questions just launched. Here's one: Will the U.S. #Congress pass a military aid package supporting #Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1391

Our March snapshot reports highlight crowd forecast trends related to #Iran's #nuclear progress and influence on proxies in the region. Read our latest release >> infer-pub.com/archive

Learn more about motivation and techniques from several of our top forecasters from last season >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…

"I want to impact policy decisions in areas that I think are critical to hopefully avoiding #war, ending wars more quickly, or improving people's lives." - Pro Forecaster @ ScottEastman, geopolitical consultant from the US now based in Romania, on why he forecasts with INFER