The scenario could also serve as a playbook for future restrictions. I’m not sure how to price these risks, but I suppose we’ll all learn together. GLTA, and DYOR (6/6)
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Bayesian Lad
3.5K posts
Bayesian Lad
@bayesian_lad
I tweet about valuations, stocks, and occasionally Bayesian stats
Tham gia Mart 2018
150 Đang theo dõi444 Người theo dõi
While I think the US is much better prepared today than it was a year ago, the reality is that unless all companies moved operations substantially out of China, costs for projects will likely rise, and that hurts all companies in the industry (5/6)
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While I hope they don’t go through (and in fact, I don’t believe they will), I feel the Chinese export restrictions for solar materials + manufacturing equipment would be a morbidly fascinating case study (1/6)
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$TE The important question that resolves the question for us " Did TE already buy and take delivery of the G2 equipment?
$TOYO is a slightly safer bet, modestly positive. Existing Ethiopia + Texas capacity is in place. Competitors are gonna be delayed. Grandfathered in. Scarcity premium on existing non-FEOC
HK@hiteshkar
China weighs curbs on exports of Solar equipment to US. Don't know what this could mean for $TOYO or $TE . There are bullish and bearish points
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@bitcoinpanda69 It's already among the goats, but by the time it ends, I think it might be the best work of fiction of all time
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$AEHR with a 41M co tract win... wow. I was under the impression deals would be 10 to 20M, but this one blows that scale out of the water. Shares are understandly up big in pre market. Love to see it
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I’m still a little anxious, but this is a good development, and IMO price action reflected as such. The extra 24M getting allotted would be a positive. I remain long. GLTA, and DYOR (6/6).
Here’s a link to the filing if you’re curious: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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The market knows what $TE will go for, and no counterparty wants to feel like they’re getting fleeced. That being said, if the next deal was either straight debt, a share offering, or some sort of co-investment, it could still be decent for shareholders (5/6)
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$TE G2 Phase 1 Funding Partially Secured
Overall, I give this deal a 7 out of 10. 160M with a conversion price of 6.80 per share yields roughly 23.53M shares. That’s against 218.4M shares as of last filing (1/6)
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@JamesMclaire I'm not celebrating too early, but if $SPWR doesn't fall meaningfully from here, it may have finally bottomed (barring some new issue)
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$sedg's bloodbath today is about what I had expected for $spwr. Hopefully yesterday's theatrics in after hours were the climax of the "fun"
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@LateReaponder I think it's a combo of managing consistency with quality. The algo seems to favor regular posting, but I don't always have quality material ready to go. Thankfully we're in earnings season, so there will be a lot to talk about these next few weeks
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@bayesian_lad Ofcourse. I don’t understand why folks like you who do amazing work don’t get enough recognition.
Keep being amazing my friend.
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This account does an amazing job on breaking stuff down cleanly. Been a great follow for me so far
$spwr
Bayesian Lad@bayesian_lad
$SPWR The good news: $SPWR filed its 10K before April 15th The bad news: $SPWR had to restate quite a few numbers. This one’s a headscratcher. It’s certainly not good, but it also could have been worse. My thoughts below (1/6)
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@LateReaponder No problem. Helps me stay on top of things.
And agreed, accounting has not been their strong suit. Until that gets cleaned up, there's a ceiling on how high this can go
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@bayesian_lad Thanks for all you do. Appears that they are not aware of GAAP accounting rule ? That one is a head scratcher for me.
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$SPWR
The good news: $SPWR filed its 10K before April 15th
The bad news: $SPWR had to restate quite a few numbers.
This one’s a headscratcher. It’s certainly not good, but it also could have been worse. My thoughts below (1/6)
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Shares are down after hours. TBD if that holds. Macro conditions could also affect the price, but losing $1 would not be good. I remain long. GLTA, and DYOR (6/6)
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Regardless of this meaning underlying margins are better than the GAAP numbers, it still creates discrepancies, and a lot of investors may simply decide these aren’t worth uncovering. Trust in mngmt is already low, and this doesn’t help (5/6)
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