Data Explained

The loan is secured against Nvidia GPUs — hardware that depreciates with every new chip generation. $8.5B backed by assets whose value depends on Nvidia not releasing H200s, B100s, or whatever comes next. First time a deal this size has been structured this way. The collateral risk model is genuinely new.

CoreWeave has raised a loan for up to $8.5 billion from a group of banks to help finance a buildout of cloud computing capacity in the largest chip-backed debt deal of its kind. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇬🇧 UK Q4 2025 GDP confirmed today: +0.1%. The breakdown: 🏗️ Construction: -2.0% 🛍️ Services: 0.0% 🏭 Production: +1.2% (the only thing growing) GDP per head: -0.1% The average Briton got slightly poorer last quarter. This was before the Iran War started. Now: 📉 OECD cut UK 2026 growth forecast: 1.2% → 0.7% 📈 OECD raised UK 2026 inflation forecast: 2.5% → 4.0% 🔺 Markets pricing in 2-3 BoE rate hikes this year The UK entered the Iran war in the weakest position of any major economy. The OECD's downgrade of the UK was the largest among G7 nations.

UK economy limped into the end of last year before Iran war reut.rs/4v7AEDk reut.rs/4v7AEDk

📊 End of Q1 2026. The most extreme sector divergence in US stock market history. 🛢️ S&P 500 Energy Index: +39% 📉 S&P 500 broad index: -7% That gap, 46 percentage points in a single quarter, is the largest spread ever recorded. The streak: energy stocks have risen for 14 consecutive weeks. Previous record: 9 weeks, in 2007. Exxon and ConocoPhillips: each up 40%+ in Q1. Best quarter in their respective histories. What's on the other side: 📉 Airlines: -20%+ (jet fuel costs up 31%) 📉 Consumer discretionary: -12%+ 📉 Tech: correction territory The Iran war didn't just move oil prices. It triggered the largest single-quarter reallocation of capital between US sectors in recorded history.

US energy stocks are on track to top the broader market by the biggest margin ever, as investors rushed to the group amid the Middle East war and a broader rotation away from pricey technology names bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation: March 2026 flash estimate just released. 📈 2.5% above the ECB's 2% target for the first time since mid-2024. The trajectory: Jan: 1.7% ✅ below target Feb: 1.9% ✅ below target Mar: 2.5% ❌ above target What drove the jump: ⚡ Energy component: -3.1% in February → +4.9% in March. That's an 8-percentage-point swing in one month. Before the Iran war, the ECB was expected to cut rates all year. Now it's debating hikes. The war started on February 28. March is the first full month of data. The energy shock is just beginning to show up in the numbers. April's reading will be worse.

Euro zone inflation surges past ECB target on oil shock reut.rs/4th5FCP reut.rs/4th5FCP

🇦🇪 UAE April 2026 fuel prices - confirmed: ⛽ Petrol: up ~31-33% from March 🚛 Diesel: up 72% from March. Dh2.72 → Dh4.69/litre. The UAE deregulated fuel pricing in 2015. No subsidies. No buffer. Global oil prices are transmitted directly to consumers every month by committee. This is what a market-linked pricing system looks like when Brent goes from $69 to $116 in 30 days. Compared to India, it slashed fuel excise duties to shield consumers. UAE: passed every cent of the shock through. Two different models. Same oil shock. Completely different outcomes at the pump.

NEW: The UAE hikes fuel prices, with sharp increases of 30% to 70%.

Bhutan works harder than anyone on the planet—54.7 hours a week on average. That's nearly 2 extra workdays compared to a standard 40-hour week. The countries that work the longest aren't the ones you'd expect. Save this. Source: ILOSTAT

🇪🇺 European inflation: back above 2% for the first time in nearly two years. Germany confirmed it today: March 2026: 2.8% February 2026: 2.0% That's a 0.8pp jump in one month. Where Europe was 6 weeks ago: ✅ Inflation below 2% target ✅ Rate cuts expected all year ✅ Recovery underway Where Europe is now: 📈 ECB baseline: inflation averages 2.6% in 2026 📈 ECB adverse: inflation peaks at 4% 📈 ECB severe: inflation peaks above 6% early 2027 📉 OECD: eurozone GDP growth cut to 0.8% in 2026 The ECB has already said it's prepared to hike rates even if the inflation surge proves temporary. The Iran war didn't just hit oil markets. It reversed the direction of European monetary policy.

The speed of the move is the story: February 26: $2.98/gallon (AAA) March 27: $3.98/gallon March 30: $4.00+ $1 added in 28 days. Fastest monthly surge since 2022. Goldman Sachs projects Brent averaging $110 through April. The price floor isn't set yet.

Breaking news: US petrol prices have risen above an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, in a sign of how the war is hurting American consumers ahead of November’s midterm elections ft.trib.al/CSMj0cf

@cnni The speed of the move is the story: February 26: $2.98/gallon (AAA) March 27: $3.98/gallon March 30: $4.00+ $1 added in 28 days. Fastest monthly surge since 2022. Goldman Sachs projects Brent averaging $110 through April. The price floor isn't set yet.

US gas hits $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, with average prices now higher than at any point during Trump's two terms cnn.it/47xRBMY

🇿🇦 South Africa entered 2026 in its longest economic expansion since 2018: 5 consecutive quarters of GDP growth Inflation: exactly at 3% target in February Rate cuts: expected all year Then the war started. Now: 📈 Fuel inflation: 18%+ projected for Q2 2026 📉 Rand: down 6%+ since February 28 🔄 Rate cuts: off the table. Rate hikes: possible. The SARB's two scenarios: ⚠️ War lasts 2+ more months: one hike ⚠️ War lasts 1+ year: several hikes Before the war: $70/barrel Brent Today: $116/barrel South Africa was finally recovering. The Strait of Hormuz closed at the worst possible moment.

The Iran war has clouded the outlook for a South African economy that had entered its longest period of economic expansion since 2018, the country’s central bank said. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@Ajiangeleyes @Machahadotcom Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, with over 220 million people, the largest population on the continent. We got that wrong. Apologies.

@dataexplain @Machahadotcom Nigeria isn't Africa's 2nd largest population, it is the first and the most populous black nation.

🇳🇬 Nigeria's food import bill: ₦7.65 trillion in 2025. Up 63% from 2022. Equivalent to ~$10 billion per year. Africa's largest economy. Africa's second-largest population. The paradox buried in the data: 📌 2024: Food inflation hit 40%+. The government launched an import waiver to fix it. ✅ It worked. Consumer prices dropped. ❌ Local rice mills shut down. Farmers couldn't compete. Many stopped planting. Meanwhile: 🌾 Government budget allocation to agriculture: 1.75% in 2025 🎯 Maputo Declaration target Nigeria signed: 10% 🚨 FAO projects 34.7M Nigerians facing severe food shortages next lean season Nigeria imported its way out of an inflation crisis. It may have imported its way into a food security one.

Context worth adding: Indonesia supplies ~50% of global nickel — a key input for EV batteries. The same nickel processing needs Gulf sulfur, now disrupted. Deforestation + critical minerals supply-chain disruption in the same economy at the same time. Two separate pressures on the materials needed for the energy transition.

Forest loss in Indonesia surged by 66% in 2025, hitting its highest rate in eight years as a result of weak environmental protections and an ambitious food and energy self-sufficiency drive, an environmental group said reut.rs/4v1KCpB

🚛 The Iran war just entered American domestic supply chains. Not a metaphor. A logistics rate announcement. Maersk's own words from their official March surcharge notice: "With approximately 20% of global fuel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, current developments have created an unprecedented cost environment affecting Landside (Inland) and Intermodal operations." What this means in practice: 🚢 Week 1 of the war: emergency ocean freight surcharges 🚛 Week 4: inland fuel surcharges on US truck and rail movements Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and ONE have all implemented inland haulage surcharges. Every container moving from a US port to a warehouse, distribution center, or retailer now carries an additional Iran war cost. The timeline of that cost hitting consumers: Goods booked now → arrive late April → hit retail shelves in May May retail prices → captured in June consumer inflation data The Hormuz closure started as an energy story. It became a financial markets story. It became a food security story. It is now a domestic US logistics story. The cascade keeps moving downstream.

🇵🇭 The peso has been setting record lows every few days since the war began: March 19: ₱60.10 — first time past 60 March 23: ₱60.30 — new record March 27: ₱60.55 — new record March 30: new record today The drivers: oil import bill, surge in dollar demand, inflation expectations. BSP 2026 inflation forecast: 5.1% is already above the target ceiling. Pump prices have more than doubled since February 28. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. The peso is now pricing in what that declaration meant.

BREAKING 🚨: Philippines Philippine Peso has plunged to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar 📉📉

🇺🇸 Today: Golden Pass LNG, Sabine Pass, Texas — first production. The plant: a $10B joint venture. QatarEnergy owns 70%. ExxonMobil 30%. Capacity: 18 million tonnes per year. Also today: 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan — the world's largest LNG facility — remains offline. Hit by Iranian missiles. Offline for up to 5 years. $20B/year in lost revenue. Damaged capacity: 12.8 million tonnes per year. The same company. One plant bombed in Qatar. One plant is starting up in Texas. This is what an energy supply chain rebuild looks like in real time. Qatar lost LNG capacity to the war. Qatar's US investment starts producing the same week. The Iran war didn't just disrupt LNG. It may have just accelerated the geographic shift of where the world's gas comes from.

Qatar-backed US LNG plant starts production as Iran war hits global supply ft.trib.al/PN6lp1m

🇪🇺 Germany is asking the EU to weaken its own methane emissions rules. The reason: the rules risk blocking the LNG imports Europe desperately needs. Here's the bind: 📋 EU Methane Regulation: requires LNG importers to verify low methane emissions across supply chains. Penalties kick in by 2030. 🇺🇸 Problem: US LNG — now 60%+ of EU supply — likely can't meet those standards. ⚡ Result: Uniper has already delayed signing new LNG contracts because of the regulatory uncertainty. 📊 European gas prices: up 60%+ since the war began 📦 Qatar LNG: offline for up to 5 years 🇳🇴 Norway: already at full capacity In 2022, Europe ditched Russian gas in favor of US LNG to reduce geopolitical dependence. In 2026, it's now considering rolling back its climate standards to keep that US LNG flowing. It traded one dependency for another. Now the new dependency is pressuring its own climate law.

Germany warned the European Union’s rules to curb methane emissions from oil and gas imports risk impeding crucial LNG purchases just as the country seeks to diversify suppliers and cushion the Middle East war’s impact on energy prices bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Oil at $102 is the tell. Every time the ceasefire sentiment briefly pushed Brent below $100 this month, it bounced back. Same pattern. Third time. The equity sell-off is pricing in what oil already knows: the structural disruptions—Qatar LNG offline 3-5 years, fertilizer planting window closing, Maersk inland surcharges live—don't reverse on diplomatic signals.

A cluster of oil platforms off the California coast has begun selling crude for the first time in over a decade, shipping supplies to a Chevron refinery near Los Angeles bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🏦 The IMF just published its full assessment of the Iran war's economic impact. Eight department heads. One document. Today. Their framework: "The shock is global, yet asymmetric." Who gets hurt most: ➡️ Energy importers more than exporters ➡️ Poorer countries more than richer ones ➡️ Thin buffers more than ample reserves The four transmission channels they identify: 🛢️ Energy: 25-30% of global oil, 20% of global LNG through Hormuz. 🚢 Supply chains: freight costs up, delivery times longer, food/fertilizer disrupted 📈 Inflation: food is 36% of consumption in low-income countries vs 9% in advanced economies. 💰 Finance: bond yields rising, credit spreads widening, EM currencies under pressure One detail buried in the blog: 🔬 The Gulf supplies a large share of the world's helium—used in semiconductors and medical imaging. 🔋 Indonesia produces ~50% of the world's nickel (used in EV batteries) but needs Gulf sulfur to process it. That supply is now disrupted. The Hormuz closure isn't just an oil-and-gas story. The IMF just confirmed it's a semiconductor, EV, and food-security story, too. Full WEO numbers: April 14.

The economic shock from war in the Middle East is global yet uneven: energy importers face more exposure than exporters, poorer countries more than richer ones, and those with thin buffers more than those with ample reserves. Read our blog. imf.org/en/blogs/artic…

🇵🇭 Philippines: 51 days of fuel stockpile. Sounds like good news. The fine print tells a different story. Philippine oil firms told the Senate last week: Fuel supply is only guaranteed until May. Petron and Shell: end of May Caltex and Jetti: end of April "After that, we're into the abyss." — Senator Win Gatchalian, March 26 2026 What the Philippines is doing to extend the runway: 🇷🇺 Petron bought 2.48M barrels of Russian crude 🚨 First nation to declare a national energy emergency ⚡ Incentivizing electric public transport to cut fuel demand The structural problem: 📊 98% of Philippine oil imports historically from Middle East ⛽ LPG (cooking gas) reserves: just 29 days Brent is at $116 today. The war is in week 5. The 51-day headline is a buffer, not a solution.

The Philippines said it increased its stockpile of petroleum products to 51 days, as the import-dependent nation searches the world for alternative suppliers while the war in Iran continues. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇪🇹 Ethiopia just signed $13 billion in investment deals. $10 billion of that: a single Chinese firm, Ming Yang Smart Energy. The projects: renewable energy, hydrogen, and green ammonia. That last one matters more than it might seem. Green ammonia is a synthetic fertilizer's clean alternative. And Ethiopia gets 90%+ of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf through a supply route now severely disrupted by the Iran war. The $10B China deal isn't just a clean energy investment. It's Ethiopia building a domestic fertilizer feedstock capacity at the exact moment Gulf ammonia exports have stopped. The Iran war is reshaping energy and food security strategies across the developing world in real time. Ethiopia's $13B investment week is one data point in that shift.

Ethiopia has signed $13 billion worth of deals at a conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 800 foreign Investors and Businessmen attended the conference. A Chinese firm accounted for $10 billion with ​projects to build infrastructure in renewable ​energy, hydrogen, ⁠and ammonia.