Spiderman

301 posts

Spiderman

Spiderman

@devandraan

Poland Tham gia Ağustos 2015
17 Đang theo dõi23 Người theo dõi
Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@aleabitoreddit With too many tickers to choose from , happy to follow your long positions :)
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Normally this goes in shower thoughts but will post main timeline today. $ALOY - Rare earth powders -> high-purity metals. Magnets used in the liquid cooling pumps $NB - Scandium, lightweight metal frames for server racks. $UURAF- Separation of rare earths. $ARA - Upstream feedstock for magnets $MEI - IAC deposit outside of China. $NTU - hard-rock heavy rare earths These are all more under the radar stuff like sub <$1B. Then for robotics supply chains I made this earlier: $UUUU - Processes monazite sand into high-purity Neodymium $MP - Extracting bastnäsite at Mountain Pass and vertically integrating into domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing. $ALOY - Converting heavy rare earth oxides into defense-grade alloys and high-temperature metals like Samarium and Gadolinium $USAR- Process heavy rare earth elements and manufacture sintered NdFeB magnets $LYSDY -(Lynas Rare Earths Limited) - Only commercial producer of separated heavy rare earth elements outside of China. $NEO -(TSX): They are the only Western company commercially producing the actual NdFeB magnetic powders and alloys at scale right now. $ILU- (rare earths refinery): rare earths refinery for Australia $ARU- (ASX): "Ore-to-oxide" NdPr facility 2. Structural Metallurgy (Niobium, Vanadium, Titanium, Beryllium) $ATI - Dominant US producer of high-performance titanium and specialty alloys required for robotic joints. $CRS - US supplier of specialty structural alloys, including the high-strength steels, titanium, and magnetic $FCX - World's largest producer of Molybdenum, which is strictly necessary for the structural steel in planetary roller screws. $NB - Critical pure-play company developing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, aimed at supplying domestic Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium $MTRN - Major global processor of Beryllium $LGO - Leading publicly traded processors of Vanadium $BMM - Onshore supply and processing for like Germanium and Gallium $VNP - Gallium, Germanium, and Indium for advanced sensors and electronics $TECK - Most significant producer of Germanium outside of China $ALB - Lithium extraction $EAF - High-purity Graphite for battery anodes $ALTM - Western lithium required to supply the batteries $SYR - Balama mine for Graphite $FCX - Humanoid requires up to 6.5 kilograms of copper $AW1 (ASX): Advancing the West Desert project in Utah, for domestic geological sources for high-grade Gallium and Indium I'm aware of a lot of more... It's just some are a little dangerous to mention geopolitically in case I broadcast vulnerabilities to geopolitical adversaries reading this (looking at you $AXTI) If you're going long on a western one 5n my favorite. Image source: Crossdock Insights, Visual Capitalist FYI this is not the pandoras box stuff. Just name dropping some interesting names informally before finishing up some research on a specific long idea. Critical elements required for semiconductor packaging and others close to near-total import reliance -> so prob influx of funding going toward it. Just informal thoughts
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@aleabitoreddit $IQE can be added more if it drops down, believe its a long term play , buy and Hold and Landmark can be bought at current price?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
@geokoutalidis Yep great shout! There's other large players out there, like $DRS or $RTX and $ESLT. But nothing publicly traded really has pure play exposure to energy directed weapons aside from $LASR AFAIK.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam. Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict. Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel. -> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down. It's absolutely wild to see it in action. Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now. Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative. There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock. Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam. Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.
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Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@aleabitoreddit better to buy the korean index which is holding samsung and SK Hynix 50 perc?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly sharp DRAM price increases from Digitimes today. Part of source was the Seoul Economic Daily report this week that stated: “Customers may need to accept prices more than double their previous contract rates to receive DRAM allocations”. The sharp DRAM price hikes come with NAND price hikes as “Phison shifts to prepayments as NAND prices hike 500%” today. There is a relentless black hole on memory demand.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit

My mind is blown on Samsung and Sk Hynix projections - $EWY? Macquarie projects Samsung Electronics to make: FY2026: ~$210.8 billion USD (+73% increase from prior KRW 172.1 trillion) FY2027: ~$333.7 billion USD (+82% from KRW 260.1 trillion) Sk Hynix: FY2026: ~$190.5 billion USD (+58% from KRW 272.2 trillion) FY2027: ~$312.8 billion USD (+77% from KRW 447 trillion) (Numbers heavily depend on conversion rates). If these projections are true: The operating profit from SK Hynix from 2026+2027 are close to eclipsing it's current marketcap. Macquarie's report slashed their projected forward P/E ratios to an absurd 3.7x by 2027 for Samsung and 2.2x for SK Hynix for 2027. It feels unreal but these are genuine projections from Macquarie's desk.

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Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@geokoutalidis whats the best option to invest into Andruil, via Kraken or any other options for retail ?
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Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@geokoutalidis part of the subscription, not able to access the recomendation file for quiet soemtime now. Please advise your teram to check, dropped a mail, miss your weekly meeting , hopefully you start once you settle down. Cheers !!!
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George Koutalidis
George Koutalidis@geokoutalidis·
Second Board seat secured! I'm proud and excited to be joining Compute Capital!
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Anthony Pompliano 🌪
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano·
Retweet if you don't care how low bitcoin's price goes because you are holding forever.
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Spiderman
Spiderman@devandraan·
@geokoutalidis Cardiso will have more end users who are investing ,especially who trades on leverage :)
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$NVDA delivered 😏 • Sales $57B vs Est. $55B • EPS $1.30 vs Est. $1.26 • Data Center Sales $51.2B vs Est. $48.6B • Gross Margins 74% vs. Est. 74% Q4 Guidance • Sales $65B vs Est. $62B
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Babyfolio
Babyfolio@babyfolio·
Use market fluctuations to your advantage and pick up quality companies at a discount. I am fully allocated (😂😭) but if I could, I'd buy $NBIS and $IREN hand over fist at these levels. What stocks are you buying? Or still waiting for a bigger correction?
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TeraWulf
TeraWulf@TeraWulfInc·
Good morning, everyone. Reminder that tonight, at 4:30 pm ET, $WULF will host its Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. See you there 🐺 Link to join here: investors.terawulf.com/news-events/pr…
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