Inkling

FEDERAL SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF GDP: only two times in history has it been this high: WWII and Covid. WHY do small business owners believe the economy is already in a recession but somehow the US is not in a recession? #Credit event #Recession

FED POWELL: "a lot of labor cost impacts are not current inflation but embedded costs" (paraphrased) Translation: WE ARE EXPERIENCING HIGH PRICES ON EVERYTHING BECAUSE OF THE LAST 4 YEARS

When it comes to productivity, the US looks pretty GOOD. On the other hand, CANADA is almost in the TANK, and Japan is in the TANK.

Fed median GDP projection at 1.7% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026.

🔴 Fed: Four officials penciled in two quarter-point cuts for 2026.

FED CUTS RATES AGAIN, SIGNALS IT MAY BE DONE FOR NOW

🔴 Fed: Seven officials penciled in no rate cuts for 2026.

$1.97 gas has reached Colorado. In May it was $3.29

American shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online on #BlackFriday, up +9.1% from last year. 💸 reuters.com/business/retai…

$NVDA NVIDIA Data Center literally off the charts.

JENSEN HUANG: "There has been a lot of talk about an AI Bubble. We see something different."

NVIDIA just posted a double beat for Q3: ~EPS: $1.30 vs $1.25 est ~REV: $57.01B vs $54.88B est ~Sees Q4 Rev $63.70B-$66.30B vs $61.48B est ~Q3 Data Center Rev +25% Q/Q trendspider.cc/NVDA $NVDA 🟢 +3% after hours

BREAKING: President Trump posts 3 quotes of Nvidia, $NVDA, founder Jensen Huang: 1. “As I promised, production of Blackwell has started. AI - invented in America, made in America, built for America and the world.” 2. “After less than a year, we're now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the US. All of this started with President Trump wanting to re-industrialize the US. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible." 3. “We are manufacturing in America because of President Trump.” Nvidia reports earnings in less than 6 hours.

Oil down 17% Coal down 27% Wheat down 7.3% Corn down 7.4% Eggs on wholesale level are down 80% Eggs on retail level down 50/70%

@KobeissiLetter Yes see the food index pattern from two full years ago - breaking out of a 12 year range in surging 25%:

US grocery prices have never been more expensive: The average cost of groceries for a family of 4 is now up to a record $1,030/month. This marks a +$280 increase since January 2017, when the average family spent $750 a month. In 2021-2022 alone, grocery costs surged by +$150. To put this differently, a family of 4 now spends over $12,360/year on groceries, compared to $9,000 in 2017. We are in an affordability crisis.

Absolutely incredible… The SF Fed just released a study of 150 years of US tariff policies. The conclusion? Tariffs lead to *lower* inflation.

SF Fed study examines 150 years of U.S. tariffs and find that they lead to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand (which raises unemployment) frbsf.org/wp-content/upl…

Today, we're announcing a new $40B investment in Texas through 2027 to build Cloud & AI infrastructure and support thousands of new jobs.  This includes new data centers in Armstrong and Haskell Counties and a major investment to strengthen energy resilience and abundance. We're also providing funding to more than double the projected pipeline of new Texan electricians to power the AI era. We've proudly called Texas home for 15 years. Thank you @GregAbbott_TX for your continued support.

@Futurenvesting When Berkshire decides to enter a position - it has nothing to do with where the stock might go tomorrow, next week, even possibly next year...

Who would have thought Warren Buffett was the one to save the AI trade?

@WhiteHouse @Google Suddenly $BRK move makes sense x.com/inside_finance…

THE TRUMP EFFECT! 🇺🇸 @Google is investing $40 BILLION in Texas AI infrastructure – creating thousands of American jobs, training college students and apprentices, and boosting affordable energy statewide. America First is delivering BIG wins!

@KobeissiLetter Small fraction of holdings but still an unusual move by the Oracle - buying $GOOG at such dizzy heights

BREAKING: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announces it has purchased a $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet, $GOOGL.