John Fite

Cold War grand strategy just dropped 🔥 Rewrite history with 8 advisors and one fragile world. The Long Telegram is live on itch.io browser playable right now for free while in development! johnrfite1.itch.io/the-long-teleg… #IndieGame #GrandStrategy #IndieDev

One hint on where the big players are betting: VIX1D/VIX. If it goes up, people thing things are going to break soon. If it's low, but VIX by itself is high, people are betting on a longer period of volatility. This one speaks for itself, the big money is betting on chaos soon.

What is the market telling me 20 minutes before closing? Absolutely nothing. Elevated VIX so no long buys, and I have two positions from before, one long, one short, both somehow in profit thank God!😂 I'm ready for that to change at any moment...

The market seems optimistic about peace or at least the Strait of Hormuz opening. Let's see! Lots of people wanted to see regime change, but if it ends here it's a huge win for the US and civilization. The primary objective has been achieved, the immediate threat ended for years

I see France is reaching out for friendship and our Japanese bros are vouching for them. This is going to be hard. I don't know if they know the damage their leftist countrymen have done for their reputation on this app. I'm open, but cautious.

@WarMonitor3 Trump’s response:

French Foreign Minister has called on the US to avert strike action today.

@WarMonitor3 The true purpose of Artemis 2 will be revealed:

Trump just now to Fox: “Our response to Iran past the deadline will be huge.”

@giovaUg What he wants that he didn't have before, beyond ending Iran's nuke and missile threat: Iran selling crude in USD (not Yuan) and at market prices (not discounted to China) China is the primary adversary. If he can shift the pain to them after this war is over that's a double win

@johnrfite Now you pose the opposite question, though? Will Trump ever accept an agreement that limits itself to reopening Hormuz? (Negotiating for something you already had before the war means withdrawing.)

This is how you play the madman strategy and play it well. Erratic, unpredictable, outrageous, a demonstrated willingness to use force. Again, compare to Nixon and Putin who tried the madman strategy and failed because they were way too calculating and couldn't hide it. With Trump? Everyone genuinely believes he just might have lost his mind. But I'd bet he has not lost his marbles. Among all the circus and chaos, how many Iranian civilians have been killed? How many US servicemen? That's the tell. He sees this as a negotiation and is applying max pressure. If that fails he will certainly bring the hammer down, but that won't result in "a whole civilization" dying tonight. It will mean more suffering and more to rebuild after this ends, and possibly the IRGC either losing power or accepting US terms. In any case, the US is in a position to continue applying more pain until they tap out or collapse if it chooses to.

@giovaUg The question now is how badly the IRGC wants those bridges and power plants. Enough to accept US demands? Or do they think doing so would be suicidal to their grip on power.

@johnrfite Yes but when you always bluff at the poker table, you never bluff

@grok @tshugart3 Thanks Grok, that, combined with the recent purges, should be the real reasons to give Xi pause.

Yes, Chinese hardware has been used by both. In Venezuela's Jan 2026 US raid to capture Maduro, JY-27A radars (anti-stealth, long-range) were deployed but failed to detect or track any of the 150+ US aircraft, including F-35s—blinded by EW jamming. No shots fired by Venezuelan defenses. In Iran's March 2026 US-Israel strikes (Operation Epic Fury), HQ-9B SAM systems (supplied by China) were neutralized early, unable to intercept incoming strikes on key targets. Multiple batteries destroyed with zero US losses reported. Chinese systems underperformed vs. US stealth/EW superiority in both cases, per multiple defense analyses.

Counterpoint: no, it isn't. None of those operations in any way demonstrate U.S. capabilities in a high-end peer-on-peer conflict in a largely maritime theater. If anything, it demonstrates the U.S. expending scarce readiness and resources against someone other than China.

You have got to be kidding me. Dreamlike...

Unbelievable shot. All of humanity who lived and has ever lived except four.

Hard to believe that humans are about to be visiting the moon again for the first time in my life. We are such experts at making a mess of things here on earth, but every now and then we do something truly impressive.

@PaulSkallas The delta between his campaign and his 2nd term is the size of Jupiter.😂

People voted for this guy to stop wars and focus on domestic issues. Now he's going to wipe out an ancient race and no one is blinking an eye. What a crazy journey

@thearnabsarkar @Osinttechnical In the real world, a war crime is whatever the winner says it is.

@Osinttechnical Does US constitution protect war crimes?

Trump on Iran this morning: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”

@WarMonitor3 There's a version of the US that the world hasn't seen in many decades. The Puritanical, Calvanist, Old Testament version. It only comes out when things get existential. Is it time?

This is real...

@NiohBerg Does he think he can sway Artesh perhaps?

It's very clear Trump is trying to scare the regime into submission by turning his madman routine up to 100. I don't necessarily believe he will go there, so I will hold my reaction until the deadline hits tonight. These threats are not going to work. This regime will happily rule over ashes as long as they rule. Their madness can't be matched. Trump also needs to realise that there has NOT been a regime change, because half of the shia islamic freaks are still in power. They need to be the targets, along with the entire basiji power structure. Only weeks ago he stopped Israel from targeting South Pars. He wouldn't have done that if he genuinely meant anything in this rant. He says what he wants his enemy to believe, not necessarily what he ends up doing.

@OrezAzari @stats_feed Found it!

@stats_feed Where’s Russia?

Who would you want to be in charge of world order?

The pulse of the Iran war is Brent crude price. I stopped doing chart patterns years ago. Trend and volume are far more reliable. However, I'm going to indulge for old-time's sake. This is a classic ascending triangle pattern. Bullish.

@giovaUg @_HenryBolton We disagree on what the terms of our relationship should be. On who has more leverage, provides the most value to the other. The only way to settle that is to find out.

@johnrfite @_HenryBolton Which is the stupidest thing, because it weakens both. Until Trump, Europe was simply a province of the American empire.