Rust Investor Journal

@Swan_inv Holding big myself, but I doubt any of the T2s reach 2$ unless the set actually gets continuation

The Island Assault Team Roadsign armor has started to rise in price📈 This is expected. It oversold too much, but now there is less supply on the market. With higher demands we will likely see it go over $2 this January.

Temple Hoodie + Pants have been submitted to the workshop this week! If accepted, here's a few things that could happen👇 Flashbacks collection crash📉 Temple Collection boom📈 Forest Raiders looses value 📉 @kosem123

@Swan_inv Good call! Sold half of mine on that spike

With the release of the Sinotype Ore Large Box this week, we saw prices spike up in price across the board for the other Sinotype storage boxes. Here I highlight the biggest spike which took place yesterday and happened with the Sinotype Meds skin. Consider taking profits!

It’s a mix of impatient sellers and supply. The Kilt’s got the highest supply in the set, so a lot of people bought in after seeing the hoodie/pants pump. Difference is, those had real catalysts - the kilt doesn’t. Only thing now is the backpack in the store, but it’s not a core piece and the core set’s basically done, so market doesn’t care. Now it’s flat, and a bunch of “investors” (mostly just regular players) are panic-undercutting, speeding up the drop. I wouldn’t sell here - even if it goes lower - it should perform well closer to winter

@SwanDev Can someone explain how skins go cheaper so quick, why do people sell them at a loss is beyond me. I was expecting the kilt to be a good investment but it's already available for like £1.35

This is my analysis of this weeks item store (based off supply+demand). Remember to do your own research and never copy trade. Green🟩I have already bought/think this has high bullish potential Yellow 🟨Longer term potential but supply issues could be a problem Red🟥Nah

@SadIIIst I’ve so many friends that are still in Ukraine and are still going through it. It’s real

Hey everyone. I’m finally safe and wanted to briefly share what I’ve been through over the past few weeks: I lived in Ukraine, where men aged 18-60 are banned from leaving. People are hunted in the streets-at best, they’re beaten, at worst, they’re sent to die in war. You can congratulate me!!! I escaped from the concentration camp called Ukraine. It was mentally and physically exhausting, but now I’m free. I made it to France after a horrifying journey-running through fields, crawling under barbed wire, going through interrogations, spending a night in jail, then traveling across Europe while staying in hotels and sorting out documents. Now I’m free and finally able to write this. I won’t be able to draw for the next few weeks. I still need to get my PC and all my tools transported. It was hell. But I survived. Thanks to everyone who cared about my little story. 🤗

Took a few days, but the giveaway skin has been delivered 🫡 Congrats again to the winner — enjoy it!

@DeluxeKemo If you would’ve had a buy order during the spring dip, you could’ve got it for like 0.6$, that’s already +50% even after Steam’s 13% fee. Kinda wish I spotted it back then too, but I was too busy with the Jungle update

@journalrust Thought about this during the spring dip. Your positives are spot on, but the huge supply and numerous other black alternatives kept me away. Add in the minimal movements and break even ~12% sales cost and I passed.

I’ve been quietly buying this hoodie over the last few weeks — sitting at around 200 units now. When I looked at the chart a few weeks back, it was on a super clean 4-5 month accumulation and just now started climbing again. That alone made it a good entry for me. But there’s more to it: • Listings are thin — only 80 left now (was ~100 when I started buying, and I only used buy orders) • Demand is strong — ~2k sales/month and slowly goes down which the price grows, which is rare for Rust skins and points out a great price elasticity. • Price is cheap — it’s a black hoodie for ~1$ (was under 0.80$). Blackout Hoodie goes for 18$ — this one is 22x cheaper. Supply is definitely a concern, yeah. But we’ve seen before (like with Whiteout Boots) that high supply isn’t a dealbreaker on its own. There are other black hoodie options around this price, but this one outsells all of them. So I’d say it’s the most desirable out of the budget picks and will lead this particular market. I’m done buying for now. Will start selling as it moves higher — but I’m keeping my buy orders live

Not trying to be harsh or anything, but honestly you could’ve just set a buy order at like 0.82$ instead. Would’ve saved ~20% instantly and given you a safety net even if the price doesn’t move or dips a bit. It’s a small thing, but it adds up, especially if you're working with a tight budget

@journalrust Well i did happen to buy 3 of the shirts you posted (98¢ each) so yes a risk it goes down and i lose but also a chance it goes up and i can make slight profit

@Fe4r_kingdom The longer you wait, the more you miss out on compounding, even with small amounts. Doesn’t mean you should ape into anything random, but that’s definitely something to keep in mind

@journalrust First step get some money 🤣🤣 like im sitting on 10$ for steam credit and maybe pushing it 20$ worth of inventory. Its mainly why im waiting for something that goes down (that i can afford) and is in semi demand as in it will go back up sometime in the near future.

Been there. Took me a while to realize the key is watching when nothing’s happening. It’s really just about putting in the time — researching, tracking, taking notes. Once you’ve done that long enough, you’ll spot the plays before they start moving

@journalrust Really wanting to get into investing but always miss out when things go cheep and only see when they go up

@shnyrxk @JohnCena > @TheRock

@journalrust yeaaa! thx u all <3 and I didn’t even have to tag TheRock to boost my chances 😂 thank u so much 🤘

Winner picked! Funny enough, it landed on someone who’s been supporting since nearly day one. Congrats @shnyrxk — well deserved. Check your DMs 🥳

@AndaDronExtrem Check dms

Picking the winner tomorrow 👀 Last chance to enter. Good luck 🙏

@veys_el_kara @playrust Congrats, Veys! 🥂 Have you considered adding armor or clothing to the collection in the near future?

We have a Heat Seeker Revo in the store. store.steampowered.com/itemstore/2524… Thank you for the massive support and the feedback ^_^ I have a SAP to be published for next week. Have a great wipe!

New Rust Store is out! Many collection continuations — very lovely to see

Twitch Drops Round 40 is coming in ~6 days. 14 skins total — but only one that actually gives in-game advantage: the @Silithur SAR. And it's free. So I wouldn’t be surprised if many Heat Seeker SAR holders start panic-listing soon. We’ve seen it before. Curious what y'all think this time. Are we looking at a small dip or a massive drop?

RIJ Factor 8: The Chart #RIJPlaybook Out of all the factors, charts are my biggest strength. They show how everything we’ve talked about — demand, relevance, structure etc — actually played out over time. I could talk about charts for days, not even exaggerating. But instead, let’s just go over some of the most common (and most useful) patterns I look for when deciding if a skin’s worth buying. • Clean uptrend: Won't need to go further than the Whiteout Kilt. One of the easiest charts to read. The price has been climbing slowly since 2022, with small drops along the way — but every time it dips, it recovers (pic 1). That’s what matters to me. It shows the skin has steady demand, even without hype. The price builds higher over time, and doesn’t crash when things slow down. And the dips are actually super easy to spot — they happen in cycles, usually off-season when demand cools off. When I see a chart like this, I’m happy buying and just holding long-term. • Pump and dump: This one’s also easy. A price skyrockets — either from real demand or just manipulation. If you time your entry wrong, you’re fucked. I usually avoid skins like this because there’s always someone who bought earlier and will dump on you, dragging the price way lower than what you paid. Always. Not saying it’s impossible to profit if you’re a little late — but it’s usually not worth the risk. The recent spike in some rugs after @Willjum1's video shows it clearly (pic 2). • Long downtrend: The Small Box from Hell (pic 3). If you zoom out on this chart, it’s clear — the price has been slowly dropping for over two years. That usually comes down to one thing: fading demand. It can happen for a lot of different reasons, but in the end it all shows up the same way — slow bleed, less interest, and lower lows over time. I usually stay away from skins like this — unless I feel like it’s finally hit the bottom, and the current price is low enough to actually bring new buyers in. That shift in buyer behavior is the only thing that can turn a chart like this around. That’s it for now — just a few of the most common chart patterns I watch for when deciding whether to buy or not. There’s still a bunch of other scenarios worth breaking down, and I’ll definitely come back to this topic again soon. #rust #rustskins #steammarket