Frederic Paris
21.2K posts

Frederic Paris
@summitfred
🇺🇦 🇺🇦 SVP M.Trudeau, le Canada 🇨🇦 doit en faire plus pour supporter nos amis Ukrainiens 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 et stopper Poutine!!
Ste-Cecile-de-Milton,Qc,Canada Tham gia Kasım 2014
1.5K Đang theo dõi1.5K Người theo dõi

From Convexity to Carry
Flipping the Script on IncomeSTKd 1X US Stocks & 1X Bitcoin Premium ETF ISSB & IncomeSTKd 1X Bitcoin & 1X Gold Premium ETF ISBG
In the last two weeks we learned that it takes two to TACO. We've watched the US Administration attempt to bring the current conflict to a resolution. It’s been much harder than they likely expected. In a geopolitical environment this complex, the administration can’t TACO by themselves—and when the other side isn't dancing, markets start to adjust course.
What began as pricing for a "quick disruption" has shifted into a potential multi-month, all-out war. This change brings stagflation squarely back into the conversation: reduced global growth from commodity-induced demand destruction, packaged with increased prices.
The Realized Trap
You may have noticed we haven't been harvesting much volatility lately in ISSB (Bitcoin/S&P 500) and ISBG (Bitcoin/Gold). While Implied Volatility (IV) was elevated, Realized Volatility (RV)—the actual movement of the assets—was right there with it.
When IV and RV are neck-and-neck, the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) vanishes. In that environment, selling options isn’t "harvesting edge"; it’s picking up pennies in front of a steamroller that is moving exactly as fast as the market feared. We don't sell volatility just because it’s high; we sell it when it is mispriced.
The Panic Pivot
The recent escalation has finally created the two things we love to see in the options surface:
- The Gap: Implied Volatility has finally overshot Realized. The market is now pricing in future "ghosts" that are much scarier than the current path.
- High Skew: The cost of protection (puts) has ballooned relative to the rest of the surface. The market is "blinking" and demanding massive compensation for risk-taking.
The Shift: Flipping to Carry
In the ISSB and ISBG portfolios, we are now leaning into this.
When things were "heads or tails" and we were looking for an inflection point, we stayed positively convex—using calls to capture large, explosive movements. But now that the market has over-priced the risk of further movement, we are moving the portfolio into a positive carry position.
By harvesting this volatility premium across State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), and SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD), we are essentially capturing the "panic tax" that the market is currently paying.
The Bottom Line
We aren't here to predict the direction of the conflict or the exact print of the next CPI. We are here to identify structural inefficiencies and forced trading activity.
For two weeks, the market was right to be scared. Today, the market is paying us to take that fear off its hands. We’re happy to oblige.

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@lemsieurf Le boute ou la terre faite est replantée en arbres… 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ c’est à en brailler 😭.
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True Yield the Next Episode youtu.be/VRy6XofEoyM?si… via @YouTube @Sylvushka
Hi Sylvia, here Max Convexity latest video. He’s a great ambassador for your ETF. He’s doing the marketing and real life explanations about how to use your income ETF. Have a look and he would 1/

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@SLG87893591 @gavin_spoor If he charge by the acre and he’s doing the job at a compétitive price, who cares the age of his combine and truck?
Why not give it a try to help start a young guy/gal??
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@gavin_spoor Pretty expensive harvest for a 45 year old relic from the 80s. I’ll pass.
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@RobSomerville1 Maybe dad still farm « on is own » independently part of the farm, with sharing equipments and labor, and letting the younger kids start « on their own » and part of the farm rented to them or sold. Keep dad’s farming/decision autonomy so for the kids, then wind down gradually
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@GalynnBeer @RobSomerville1 Very interesting and good opinion !! 👌👌👌
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@RobSomerville1 I’d say when he wants to. His farm, his decision. I think farming provides a purpose in life that extends life versus being sedentary.
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@sarahdorner @frank_sbr @MatB613 Je ne crois pas que M. Lambert voulais dire d’abandonner ses terres, mais plutôt que quand tout est fait dans ses sols et que ça inonde quand même , ce n’est pas les routes en gravier qui vont régler le problème en ville
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@summitfred @frank_sbr @MatB613 Oui, mais on ne dit jamais qu’il faut abandonner ces terres à cause de la possibilité de tempêtes et que toute tentative pour améliorer le drainage est une lubie de la gauche.
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J'écoutais Ferrandez avec Normandeau sur la route tantôt et un des sujets était d'enlever l'asphalte de certaines rues à Montréal afin de les transformer en rues éponges.
Les rues éponges, c'est la nouvelle lubie de la gauche.
Je vous rappelle que la semaine passée, mes champs étaient inondés et je n'ai pas d'asphalte ici.
Malgré que je sois drainé, il y a encore des endroits où l'on ne peut pas aller.
Donc, avant que la gauche qui nous gouverne devienne folle comme on le fait avec les dépenses dans tout ce qui se nomme VE (véhicules électriques).
Soyons conscients que le sol n'est pas si éponge qu'on aimerait qu'il le soit.
...des rues en garnotte simonac!
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@sarahdorner @frank_sbr @MatB613 Cours d’eau majeurs. Sans cela les drains souterrains ne servent à rien. Pour les villes, possible que de gros canaux d’évacuation d’urgence comme on voit dans les films en californie soient nécessaires un jour pour les déluges de plus en plus fréquents 🤷♂️🤷♂️
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@sarahdorner @frank_sbr @MatB613 Dans nos champs, avant même le drainage souterrain, c’est les système d’égouttement en surface qu’il faut maîtriser pour faire ruisseler cette eau par des pentes optimisées qui dirigent l’eau de surface vers un système local/regional de ruisseaux, décharges vers les 4/
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The Daily Covered Caller youtu.be/YTrvjrjtgWs?si… via @YouTube
A great YouTube channel for the ones interested in high yield options funds (from 8 to 100% dividends yield per year), options trading and the stock market in general. Daily content 👌👌

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