Limonta

HISTORIC NIGHT FOR VJ EDGECOMBE 🔥 First rookie with: ✅ 5 threes and 10 REB in a playoff game in NBA history ✅ a 30-PT double-double in a playoff game since Derrick Rose in 2009 ✅ 30 PTS and 10 REB in a playoff game since Tim Duncan in 1998

Trump extends the US-Iran ceasefire, initially meant to expire Wednesday, indefinitely. Some thoughts: -Both the US and Iran at this point would prefer not to return to war, each for different reasons. But talks are not progressing because the two sides are very far apart; each perceives it holds the advantage. Despite the heavy power imbalance, differences in their respective tolerance of pain also matters. -Trump would prefer not to return to war for now because the domestic political costs, already growing, would mount even more (even more so should the Houthis join in and block the Bab al-Mandab, on top of Hormuz already blocked). -Iran would also prefer not to return to war; while much attention has focused on its (real) success in closing Hormuz and its perception that it won the war by not losing (true, in a narrow sense), we must also factor in the heavy losses caused by weeks of US/Israeli strikes on military, economic, and other sites. Cumulatively, these hurt a lot; this pain is compounded by the regime's broader vulnerabilities (popular resentment against the regime; an already very weak economy damaged by decades of mismanagement and sanctions). -Both perceive that they hold more leverage relative to the other: Iran, because of its success in closing Hormuz, and the US, because Trump holds a narrow view of US power (US = more powerful = Iran weaker = Iran must concede). -Both misread the other; but the net result is that neither side wants to make the first move, believing the other should concede first. -Key here is each side's tolerance for pain, and each side's perception of the other side's tolerance for pain. Iran can absorb significant pain (more precisely, the regime can pass on that pain to the population); this fight is existential for the regime, so it will be patient, play the long game, and refuse to compromise on what it views as matters existential to regime survival. -Iran also believes, not completely inaccurately, that Trump has a much lower pain threshold - that with domestic discontent mounting (notably within the MAGA coalition) and mid-term elections approaching, Trump will be reluctant to relaunch the war. Iran believes this gives it an advantage. -The result: for now, a fragile stalemate - no war, no serious peace talks, but a volatile muddling along, with neither side willing to concede or to resume fighting (for now).

تمدید آتش بس از جانب ترامپ هیچ معنایی ندارد. طرف بازنده نمی تواند شرایط تعیین کند. تداوم محاصره تفاوتی با بمباران ندارد و باید به آن پاسخ نظامی داد. ضمن اینکه تمدید آتش بس از جانب ترامپ قطعا به معنای خرید زمان به منظور ضربه غافلگیرانه است. زمان ابتکار عمل ایران است.

Trump speaking to CNBC claims he could've "won" the Vietnam & Iraq wars in five months "Five months. I would have won Vietnam, very quickly. I would have, if I were president. I would have won Iraq in the same amount of time"