置顶推文
Take a moment to understand this.
Once you internalise this, your investment returns will follow suit.
$tsla $pltr
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Chicken Little
19.1K posts
Chicken Little
@Chicky_Think
Sharing my stream of consciousness as I learn to be a better investor, person and father with each passing day. Paying it forward.
加入时间 Ocak 2021
330 关注1.4K 粉丝
I don't think the "watch the whole thing" works due to a few reasons.
1. Practical reason:
No one really wants to put in hours trying to understand that they might be wrong.
2. More concerning reason:
Like you said, MSM is left-leaning — it's intentionally narrated to highlight the worst of anything they're against, while obfuscating any positives. Thus, masses that depend on MSM will generally develop TDS.
3. Optics:
Most folks who are against him largely can about "optics". — it's 99% of their entire argument. "It looks/sounds bad, thus "how can dis be allow?!". I've learned that anchoring on optics can often lead to missing the forest for the trees moments.
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The 47 is a shrewd man.
Never take his words literally.
He usually put his agenda in public/media, way more than what he wanted. In the end, he achieve what he originally wanted.
It has been playing over and over again.
It is like playing chess but 5 steps ahead of everyone.
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@wearelosingyou Hahaha. Similar to my group of friends too.
Need to watch his original full interview instead of snippets and media headline.
The media is mostly left, half truths and stroke emotions in their headlines.
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@Chicky_Think I know the majority (if not all) of my friends and my relatives are completely opposite of your analysis and feelings relating to him.
I find it extremely interesting that this gap exists. I just observe, meme and laugh. 😁
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Chicken Little 已转推
50 years ago, the US and Saudis came to an agreement that forced every country to buy dollars before they could buy Saudi's oil. China had to convert yuan into dollars every time they needed the one commodity that keeps their factories running. Japan bought US bonds just to get dollars that kept their bullet trains running. France traded euros for dollars just to buy fuel that runs their wine and agriculture.
This deal is a key reason the US dollar has maintained its position as the world's reserve currency for so long. And why the value of your 401(k), your IRA, and every dollar you've saved since you started your full-time career has been propped up.
In the article below, I'll explain how this deal created the "petrodollar system", why it's breaking down now and how this affects retail investors.
Felix Prehn 🐶@felixprehn
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@Mazzumoto32 All the best!
Believe in yourself and you will make it.
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I have been telling relatives and close friends that staying debt-free & asset rich is the ultimate freedom and powerful, quiet flex.
This is especially when one is in 40s or had been working for >20years.
Why? You should be thinking of how to retire in a decade or two.
In 40s, Mid career crisis or mid life crisis is likely to trigger why you are in this job, this life or this unpleasant situation.
Having the freedom to say "I can quit my job because I hate it/my boss" is a powerful feeling. It gives you your life back after working for a few decades.
This post was triggered by two friends.
Friend 1 - stuck in a job he dislike because of huge mortgage loan. Unhappy.
Friend 2 - having freedom (thinking) to resign because of her lousy colleagues. Liberating.
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We can get AI to help, but never outsource writing and thinking to AI.
When human lose ability to think critically, we are not much different from monkeys.
🔹🔹🔹
Seen this in my company which certain jobs Eg soldering are outsourced. Over time, process engineer lost the ability to solder to IPC standard and sorely dependent on outsourced staff.
It is sad that a process engineer lost his fundamental skillset, lost his judgement call based on experience, while working on so called higher value job.
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Chicken Little 已转推
When i analyse $smci in Nov 2023, it was before stock price did a astronomical climb in Jan 2024.
I was against the investment because of the quoted post.
The price shot up 4x between Jan to Mar 2024. Many were raving it to be the beneficiary of nvda and AI, and going to be a multibagger.
Was I right not to buy?
Yes, I was.
In Aug 2024, stock price came down after a short seller report and delayed filing.
Was I right not to buy?
Yes, I was.
I am not trying to brag as I have 1) zero vested interest, 2) not trying to sell investment courses or 3) funds, 4) not prove i am better.
I am just trying to bring one point across -
I am neither right or wrong because of how media/market thinks or how stock price moves. I am right because my analysis/ facts were correct.
For all I know, the stock price can move up and company can turn around but it is what it is, and this is how I invest.
It is good to have an investment strategy and framework. Stick to it, finetune it necessary but don't flip it 180 degc because of pure emotions.
Stick to the f-ing plan.
Chicken Little@Chicky_Think
From FY2022 AR $SMCI 🔸Key Points🔸 1)No other customers represented more than 10% of revenue 2)Working with leading processor vendor eg Intel ,Nvdia and AMD. 3)Believe to be only major server, storage and compute platform that design, develop and manufacture significant portion of the system in US. 4)58% of revenue from US, 21.9% from Asia 🔸Risk🔸 1)Competition from original design manufacturer (ODM) eg Foxconn which can scale and low cost production. These companies have longer operating histories and branding. ODM has previously supplied parts too. 2)Computer server industry has short lead time and quick delivery schedule. Coupled with global shortage in 2021/2, there is a need to shore up inventory. When the economy falters, the big inventory demands more storage cost. 3)Had a history of delay FS filing in 2017. Recorded liability of $17.5M with SEC. 4) The R&D as percentage of Sales is higher than most of competitors. 5)There are plans to target larger customers and sales, this implies ➡️Customer base will be more concentrated ➡️Cost of sales might increased ➡️Borrowing will increase ➡️Higher inventory risk 6)Vendor concentration risk Two companies for their work in contract design and management support and warehousing – Ablecom and Compuware. The management of these two companies are direct family members. In 2018, CEO Charles borrowed $12.9M from his sister-in-law. It was to pay off margin loans to financial institutional which the lenders called for in Oct 2018, with stock price suspension then. As of June 2022, CEO still owe $15.7M. The supply chain and company operation can be affected or held at hostage if the two vendors were to be acquired or change of management. 7)Supplier concentration risk - Two suppliers form 29% of total purchase in June 2022. 🔸Financials🔸 1) Income Statement Inventories at sky high at $1.5B with finished goods at $1B. Will have a big problem if unsold. Although current ratio is 1.9x but the bulk is from inventory at $1.5B. Remain interesting to see if the inventory will be sold off. 2)Balance Sheet Cash of $267M, short term debt $449M and long term debt at $147M. 3)Cashflow Borrowed $1.1B to pay debt of $650M. Negative cashflow form operating, largely contributed by high inventory ($519M) and receivables ($371M). To monitor whether the AR decreased in near future. 🔸Loan Repayment🔸 2023 $449M 2024 $36M 2025 $39M 2026 $39M 2027 $14M 2028 and beyond $16M 🔸Summary🔸 I don’t see any moat as is dependable of key vendors, competition can easily penetrate. Huge loan and debt to clear off. Not my cup of tea.
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I make it a point to listen to every Jensen Huang 's interview. $nvda
Full of wisdom and knowledge
youtu.be/gwW8GKwHB3I?si…
YouTube
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When one read widely consistently, you won't be afraid to meet people.
Why? You will have endless topics to talk.
Next level: Go down rabbit hole.
Provide ability to challenge/debate others' mental model, thought process and concepts.
Everything compounds henceforth.
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Do the things that one like, not pander to others or for money.
Do it at own pace.
Expect nothing in return.
This ensure longevity of task, quality of work and true happiness.
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There is always a reason to sell your investment.
Wars, geopolitics, inflation. Whatever.
The best risk to reward is when most are bearish and selling.
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Ability to compartmentalise tasks in block Eg 30min at work is an important skillset.
It means one focus on a single task and code switch into other tasks quickly. It accomplishes tasks fast and less error prone.
Different from undesirable multi-tasking.
Unsure how to articulate in words. Will share more when I have clarity.
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"I still believe that writing is the most important skill of your career.
That’s because writing is thinking, and the better you are at thinking, the better you will be at solving problems.
Writing is more than just putting together a bunch of words to communicate.
It’s a way to develop your mind. And you should always keep writing and thinking, and also reading."
Credit to @DariusForoux
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There are two ways to be happy:
1) Change the situation, or
2) Change your mindset about the situation.
No need to complain excessively or shift blame away.
Happiness can be that simple.
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I was the "then" programmer.
But now, I am in the middle.
I try to write code from scratch, but leverage on certain section of others when deadline looms, thus my code is >80% generated by me.
This is why I can change my code quickly because I understand it.
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Yes, this is something that I observe too.
Private credit, infrastructure or even equity are more accessible to the man in the street.
While democratize such asset class is good, but the full risks and lack of transparency (in private asset) may not be shared with retail investors.
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Reflections on Private Credit.
Issue? Investors want higher returns without the price volatility and with short-term liquidity.
Higher returns stem from the illiquidity premium from investing in longer-duration, illiquid assets.
Initially, long-dated assets were sold to long-duration capital.
Greed steps in, and the industry wants to scale AUM and fees faster.
Build more vehicles to expand and sell more long-duration illiquid assets to short-duration capital.
A duration mismatch is not a problem in calm markets until stress reveals it.
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