0xToad

“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.” - Howard Marks Over the past few years, I’ve closely mapped the macro liquidity cycles, key crypto ratios, expanding institutional flows, and the precise market setups where risk appetite surges and capital rotates aggressively into high-risk, speculative assets. I’ve consistently highlighted the building case for a full risk-on environment - one that would finally ignite the next altcoin season. With each passing year, that setup has grown stronger and clearer. We’re now sitting at that inflection point. Everything is on sale! In 2023/2024 the consensus was clear: accumulate your favourite alts. I pounded the table on $GFAL throughout 2024 and 2025, convinced we were early. Many of you joined. Then came the brutal realisation: a 5-year altcoin bear - a black swan that wiped out momentum, shattered conviction, and left most alts bleeding with zero follow-through. “Alt season” became a joke. Today? Blood in the streets. Generational-low sentiment. The market has fully capitulated on alt season. This is exactly when the strongest setups emerge. The macro factors I’ve outlined in my recent posts are now aligning: expanding global liquidity, rising institutional flows, alts gaining strength versus BTC, and improving risk appetite. This is laying the foundation for a full risk-on environment - one that will breathe new life into our altcoins sitting at the extreme end of the risk curve. When the risk-on switch fully flips - and history shows it happens fast - capital doesn’t trickle in. It floods undervalued sectors backed by real fundamentals, battle-tested teams, and heavily compressed valuations that haven’t yet had their narrative moment. Web3 gaming is one of those sectors. And $GFAL is my longest-held and highest-conviction play inside it. Web3 Gaming Bull Case After the 2021–22 P2E hype blow-off, the sector is in a healthy “great reset.” Weak projects died in the years that followed, but the survivors are leaner and sharply focused on fun-first gameplay + sustainable tokenomics. Structural tailwinds are powerful: - True digital ownership (NFTs/assets that players can trade, lend, or carry across titles) - Player-driven economies instead of infinite inflation - Tech upgrades: L2s for cheap/fast transactions, account abstraction/social logins for mass onboarding, and mobile-first design Follow the money: Mobile is the real killer app - 90% of global gaming happens on phones. While traditional studios are bleeding with mass layoffs, high fixed costs, and bloated teams, and many big Web3 projects (especially heavy PC/console-focused ones) are struggling or shutting down, the lean mobile-first Web3 builders who survived the bear market are now best positioned for the rebound. When the cycle turns, one or two strong mobile titles with proven retention and ownership layers can reignite the entire narrative. Why $GFAL Stands Out as the Potential Unicorn @GFAL_Official is building a connected ecosystem of mobile-first Web3 games powered by $GFAL as the single universal utility token. Their flagship title,@GFAL_Diamond Diamond Jewels (a luxury-themed match-3 puzzle game), launched worldwide in September 2025 and is already showing exceptional real-world traction. Diamond Jewels highlights: - Strong Day-1, Day-7, and Day-30 retention rates that place it in the top 10% of the entire mobile gaming industry - Currently sitting at 4.8 stars from over 4.1K reviews on Google Play (with similarly excellent feedback on iOS) - 50K+ downloads achieved with virtually no broad marketing spend — driven primarily by organic growth, soft launches in select regions (e.g., Philippines, Malaysia, early US tests), and strong word-of-mouth - Finalist for Best Use of AI & Blockchain at the 2025 Mobile Games Awards This level of performance without heavy UA (user acquisition) spend is VERY rare and speaks volumes about the core gameplay loop, visuals, and luxury positioning. The game blends addictive Candy Crush-style mechanics with premium aesthetics, immersive storytelling, and optional Web3 ownership layers - all while remaining fully accessible to non-crypto users. When the team ramps up targeted marketing (ROAS-tested and scaled), Diamond Jewels has the potential for exponential growth, positioning it to rival top-tier match-3 hits like Candy Crush in the premium/luxury segment while adding blockchain monetization that traditional games can’t match. Token utility is clean and organic: $GFAL is the only currency for in-game purchases, NFT minting, marketplace trades, commissions, and VIP perks (discounts, priority, governance). Demand ties directly to real player activity. Elite Team & World-Class Backing What truly sets GFAL apart is its exceptional team and the calibre of investors who have backed them — a rare combination of battle-tested gaming operators and sharp, experienced capital. The company is led by proven veterans who have collectively shipped dozens of hit titles and generated billions in value. Examples include: - CEO @ManelSort brings deep mobile expertise from King (Candy Crush) and Activision Blizzard, with a track record of over 60 titles and more than $1 billion in combined EBITDA - Chief Strategy Officer @TheTripHawkins is the legendary founder and former CEO of EA - one of the most influential figures in gaming history This isn’t just a strong operational team; it’s a group with real pedigree in building scalable, player-obsessed mobile games. The investor lineup matches the team’s quality. The $3.2M seed round was backed by @supercell (with close personal ties through CEO @ipaananen , who previously worked alongside several GFAL founders at Digital Chocolate), veteran game investor @mitchlasky of Benchmark Capital (known for early bets on hits like Riot Games, Discord, and Snapchat), and mobile gaming veteran Angus Lovitt (ex-VP Marketing at King, key figure in scaling Candy Crush to billions in revenue).. This follows an earlier $4.4M token pre-sale, bringing total funding to a solid base. Smart operators + smart money whose track records speak for themselves. When a team this experienced teams up with investors who have repeatedly backed category-defining games and platforms, it significantly de-risks execution in a tough sector. The asymmetry is clear: If the team keeps shipping polished, addictive games that retain real players (not just farmers), $GFAL demand compounds through gameplay and the in-game economy. A sector narrative revival in a risk-on environment could deliver outsized returns from these levels. Elite team + proven retention metrics + live product + strong backers + tiny valuation = classic unicorn setup for a 100-1000x in a sector ready for its moment. Web3 gaming has real long-term legs - and I’m proud to say $GFAL remains my strongest conviction bet on it delivering. Token details: dexscreener.com/bsc/0xb3db5f4f… CA: 0x47c454cA6be2f6DEf6f32b638C80F91c9c3c5949 Market cap: FDV = 10 mil. Disclaimer / NFA: This is not financial advice. Everything above is just my personal opinion and research. Always do your own due diligence (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. Crypto is highly volatile — these tokens could go to zero. Only invest what you can afford to lose and manage your risk properly. I may buy, sell, or hold any of these assets at any time without notice. Never ape into something just because I’m in it. Take full responsibility for your own trades. $gfal to $1

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We published a new article on NexOTC’s vision Access for All: The Foundation of the Open Economy We believe a more open financial system needs more than better apps, it needs settlement rails for modern finance. Read here: nexotc.io/blog/building-…

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@TheCryptoLark If I had a dollar for every time someone broke this chart out and asked this question….. What’s your point?

In your opinion, where are we in this market cycle?

In Defense of Exponentials I used to tell founders, the reaction you are going to get to your launch is not hate, it’s indifference. By default, nobody cares about your new chain. I have to stop telling them that now. Monad just launched this week, and I’ve never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. I’ve been investing into crypto professionally for 7+ years now. Before 2023, almost every chain I’ve ever seen that launched was mostly met with enthusiasm or indifference. But now, new chains are born into a chorus of hate. The amount of haters I’ve seen for projects like Monad, Tempo, MegaETH—before they even hit mainnet—is a genuinely new phenomenon. I’ve been trying to diagnose: why is this happening now, and what does it mean about the psychology of this market? The Cure is Worse than the Disease Forewarning: this is going to be the vaguest blockchain valuation post you ever read. I don’t have any fancy metrics or charts to sell you on. Instead, I’ll be arguing against the zeitgeist of Crypto Twitter, which for the last couple of years, I’ve been constantly on the opposite side of. In 2024, I felt like what I was arguing against was financial nihilism. Financial nihilism is the belief that none of these assets matter, it’s all memes at the end of the day, and everything we’ve built is inherently worthless. Thankfully, that’s no longer the vibe. We have broken out of that spell. But the zeitgeist now is what I’d call financial cynicism: OK, maybe some of this stuff has value, maybe it’s not all memes, but it’s grossly overvalued and it’s only a matter of time before Wall Street finds that out. Not that all chains are worthless. But these things are all maybe worth 1/5th-1/10th of what they’re currently trading at (have you seen these PE ratios?), and so you’d better pray like hell Wall Street doesn’t call us on our bluff, because once they do it’s all getting wiped out. You’ve got many bullish analysts now trying to conjure up optimistic L1 valuation models, inflating PE ratios, gross margins, DCFs, trying to fight against this mood. Late last year, Solana very proudly embraced REV as a metric that could finally justify their valuation. They proudly announced: we—and only we—are no longer bluffing to Wall Street! And, of course, almost immediately after REV was embraced, it fell off a cliff (though $SOL, tellingly, did better than REV did). Not that there’s anything wrong with REV. REV is a very clever metric. But the point of this post is not metric selection. Then came the launch of Hyperliquid. A DEX that had real revenue and buybacks and PE multiples. And the chorus said—look, look I told you! Finally, for the first time ever, a token that has some real profits and a proper PE multiple. (Nevermind BNB, we don’t talk about that.) Hyperliquid will eat everything because obviously Ethereum and Solana don’t make any real money, we can stop pretending to value them now. Hyperliquid, Pump, Sky, these buyback-heavy tokens are all great. But the market always had the ability to invest into exchanges. You could always buy Coinbase, or BNB, or whatever. We own $HYPE, and I agree that it’s a fantastic product. But that’s not why people were investing in ETH and SOL. The fact that L1s don't have exchange-like profit margins is not why people were buying them—if they wanted that, they could’ve bought Coinbase stock. So if I’m not critiquing blockchain financial metrics, maybe you think this post is going to be chiding the sinfulness of the token-industrial complex. Obviously, everyone has lost money on tokens in the last year, VCs included. Alts are down bad this year. And so the other half of the zeitgeist on CT is arguing about who's to blame. Who’s become greedy? Are the VCs greedy? Is Wintermute greedy? Is Binance greedy? Are the farmers greedy? Are the founders greedy? The answer, of course, is the same as it’s ever been. Everyone is greedy. Everyone. The VCs, Wintermute, the farmers, Binance, the KOLs, they're all greedy, and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter. Because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest. If we're right about crypto, we can all be greedy and the investments will still work out. Trying to analyze a market that has gone down by figuring out “who’s greedy” is going to be about as fruitful as commissioning witch trials. I guarantee you, nobody just started being greedy in 2025. So this, too, is not what I’m going to be writing about. Many people want me to write a post about why $MON should be valued at X or $MEGA at Y. I’m not interested in writing this post, or advocating that you buy anything in particular. In fact, you probably shouldn’t buy any of them if you don’t already believe in them. Will any new challenger chain win? Who knows. But if it has a material chance of winning, it's going to be priced on that basis. If Ethereum is worth $300B or Solana is worth $80B, a project that has a 1-5% chance of becoming the next Ethereum or Solana will be priced according to those probabilities. Somehow CT is scandalized by this, but it’s no different than Biotech. A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions of dollars, even if 90% chance it won’t pass stage 3 trials and will go to 0. That's how the math works—and turns out, markets are pretty good at doing math. Binary outcomes are priced on probabilities, not on run rates or moral turpitude. It’s the “shut up and calculate” school of valuation. I really don’t think that’s an interesting question to write about. “5% chance to win? No way, that’s clearly a 10% chance!” Markets, not articles, are the best way to assess that for any individual token. So here’s what I am going to write about: CT doesn't seem to believe anymore that chains are valuable. I don’t think this is because they don’t believe new chains can win market share. We just saw Solana dominate market share after emerging from the ashes less than 2 years ago. It’s not easy, but of course it’s possible. It’s more that people have come to believe that even if a new chain wins, there’s no prize worth winning. If $ETH is just a meme, if it’ll never generate real revenue, then even if you win, you won’t be worth $300B. The contest is not worth winning, because these valuations are all bunk and it’ll all come crashing down before you go to claim your prize. Being optimistic about chain valuations has become passé. Not that nobody is optimistic—obviously there must be optimists out there. For every seller there’s a buyer, and as much as CT cool kids love to drag L1s, people are comfortable buying SOL at $140, ETH at $3000. But there’s a perception now that all the smartest people are over buying smart contract chains. Smart people know the jig is up. If not now, then soon. The only people buying here are suckers—Uber drivers, Tom Lee, and KOLs who say stuff like “trillions.” And maybe the US Treasury. But not the smart money. This is bullshit. I don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either. So I felt like I had to write a smart person’s manifesto on why general purpose chains are valuable. This post is not about Monad or MegaETH. It’s really in defense of ETH and SOL. Because if you believe ETH and SOL are valuable, the rest is straight downstream. Defending ETH and SOL valuations is generally not my job as a VC, but fuck it, if nobody else is willing to do it, then I’ll write it. Feeling the Exponential My partner Bo experienced the Chinese Internet boom first-hand as a VC. I’ve heard how “crypto is like the Internet” so many times now that it doesn’t even register for me anymore. But when I hear his stories, it always reminds me how costly it is to be wrong about these things. A story he often tells is about when all the early e-commerce VCs (it was a small group back then) got together for coffee in the early 2000s. They debated: how big is the market for e-commerce going to be? Is it going to be mostly electronics (maybe only techies will use PCs)? Could it ever work for women (perhaps they’re too tactile)? What about food (maybe impossible to manage perishables)? These were deeply important questions for early VCs to decide what to invest in and what prices to pay. The answer, of course, was that literally every single one of them was devastatingly wrong. E-commerce would sell everything, and the target audience was the whole fucking world. But nobody at the time actually believed it. And even if they did, it would be too absurd to say out loud. You just had to wait long enough for the exponential to show you. Even among the believers, very few thought e-commerce would become as big as it became. And those few who did, almost all of them became billionaires from just not selling. Every other VC—as Bo tells me, since he was one of them—sold too early. It has become passé in crypto to believe in the exponential. I believe in the crypto exponential. Because I’ve lived it. When I started in crypto, nobody used this stuff. It was tiny and broken and awful. TVL on-chain was in the millions. We invested into the first generation of DeFi, MakerDAO, Compound, 1inch, back when they were science projects. I remember playing around on EtherDelta back when DEXes traded single digit millions a day, and that was considered to be a huge success. It was complete dogshit. Now we routinely trade in the tens of billions on-chain every day. I remember believing it was crazy that Tether hit a billion dollars in issuance and was being written up in the NYT as a ponzi scheme on the brink of shutdown. Now stablecoins are over $300B and regulated by the Federal Reserve. I believe in the exponential because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it over and over again. But you might respond—well, stablecoin growth might be exponential, maybe DeFi volumes are exponential, but they don’t accrue to ETH or SOL. The value doesn’t get captured by the chains. To which I answer: you still don’t believe in the exponential. Because the exponential’s answer is always the same: it doesn’t matter. This stuff is going to be so much bigger than it is today. And when it’s absolutely enormous, you’ll make it up on scale. Study this chart. This is Amazon’s P&L from 1995 to 2019. That’s 24 years. Red is revenue, gray is profit. You see that little blip on the end where the gray line goes up? That’s when, 22 years in, Amazon started actually making a profit. Amazon was 22 years old when this little gray line of net income first peeled off of 0. Every single year before then, there were op eds and critics and short sellers claiming that Amazon was a ponzi scheme that would never make any money. Ethereum just turned 10 years old. This is what the first 10 years of Amazon stock looked like: 10 years of chop. All along the way, Amazon was beset with doubters and non-believers. Is e-commerce a VC-subsidized charity? They’re selling underpriced cheap low-quality knick-knacks to bargain hunters, who cares? How are they ever going to make actual money, like Walmart or GE? If you were arguing about Amazon’s P/E ratio, you were in the wrong regime. That’s the regime of linear growth. But e-commerce was not a linear trend, and so every single person for 22 years arguing about P/E ratios was devastatingly wrong. No matter what you paid, no matter when you bought, you were not bullish enough. Because that’s what exponentials do. When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it’s going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger. This is the thing that Silicon Valley has always understood better than Wall Street. Silicon Valley was raised on exponentials, while Wall Street was raised on linearity. And over the last few years, crypto’s center of gravity has migrated from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. You can feel it. Granted, crypto growth doesn’t look as smooth as e-commerce’s growth. It’s burstier, it goes in fits and starts. This is because crypto, being about money, is deeply tied to macro forces, and it also has more violent regulatory push and pull than e-commerce. Crypto strikes at the heart of the state—money—and so it’s more unnerving to governments than e-commerce ever was. But the exponential is no less inevitable. It's a crude argument. But if crypto is exponential, then the crude argument is correct. Zoom out. Financial assets want to be free. They want to be open. They want to be interconnected. Crypto turns financial assets into file formats, makes it as easy to send a dollar or a stock as to send a PDF. Crypto makes it possible for everything to talk to everything. It makes it all 24/7, global, interconnected, and open. That will win. Open always wins. If there’s no other lesson I've learned from the Internet, it’s that. Incumbents will fight against it, governments will huff and puff, but eventually they will give up against the adoption, the generativeness, the sheer efficiency that this technology enables. It’s what the Internet did to every other industry. Blockchains are how that same trend will gobble up all of finance and money. Yes—with enough time—all of it. An old saying goes: people overestimate what can happen in two years, but they underestimate what can happen in ten. If you believe in the exponential, if you zoom out enough, then it’s all still cheap. And it should humble you that every day, the holders outlast the sellers and naysayers. Big capital has a longer time horizon than CT swing traders might lead you to believe. Big capital has been trained through history not to fade big technologies. You know, the big gushy story that originally got you to buy $ETH or $SOL? Big capital believes that story and hasn't stopped. So what exactly am I arguing? I am arguing that applying P/E ratios to smart contract chains (the “revenue meta,” as it’s now called), is giving up on the exponential. It means you have consigned this industry to the regime of linear growth. It means you believe 30 million DAUs on-chain and <1% of M2 is it. Crypto is just one of the things in the world. A sideshow. It did not win. It was not inevitable. More than anything, I’m arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer. I’m arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you’ve been a part of in your life. That this is your e-commerce. That you will look back when you’re old and tell your kids—I was there when it all happened. Not everyone believed it was possible, that whole societies could change, that all of money and finance would be transformed by programs running on decentralized computers that we collectively owned. But it actually happened. It changed the world. And you were a part of it. Disclosure: These are my own views. Dragonfly is an investor in $MON, $MEGA, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, $SKY among many other tokens. Dragonfly believes in the exponential. This is not investment advice, but is advice of another kind.

🚨 In gaming’s harshest year - when 45,000+ jobs were wiped out and most Web3 games flatlined - one title is doing the unthinkable. 💎 Diamond Dreams Match (by $GFAL) just launched Season 2: The Midnight Cipher… And players are obsessed 🧵👇 1/ While studios shut down and Web3 experiments vanish, one game is defying the entire trend. - Nearly 3,000 reviews. - A staggering 4.9⭐ rating. And comments like: “The best match-3 game in years. Candy Crush should watch their back.” This isn’t hype. It’s product-market fit. 2/ Season 2 brings a brand‑new Paris storyline, sapphire‑white gold collectibles, intricate puzzles, and luxury-themed gameplay that actually feels premium. The Midnight Cipher is live, and it’s one of the cleanest season drops I’ve seen in mobile gaming this year. 3/ Here’s what sets @GFAL_Official apart: ✨ Stunning real‑time ray tracing ✨ Hyper‑real 3D jewelry crafting ✨ Fresh mechanics like Golden Boosters ✨ AI-generated galleries ✨ Offline play, team features, high retention ✨ Web3 collectibles that are optional, not forced Gameplay first. Blockchain second. That’s why it works. 4/ And while most Web3 tokens are clinging to narratives, $GFAL has actual players, actual reviews, actual growth, and a marketplace seeing rising activity and new wallets. This is a real gaming ecosystem, not a promise of one. 5/ What I love most? You can play the entire game without touching crypto, but if you want digital ownership, crafting, or peer-to-peer trading, it’s all powered by the $GFAL token. Elegant integration. No friction. No gimmicks. 6/ In a brutal year for the industry, Diamond Dreams isn’t just surviving, it’s competing with the giants. And now the game is officially running for Best Mobile Innovation 2026 @PocketGamer Awards. That alone should wake people up. 7/ From Elemental Raiders to Diamond Dreams to the GFAL Marketplace… This team has built a sustainable, scalable ecosystem with real monetization, real users, and real retention — something almost no Web3 game has pulled off. 8/ My take? Most GameFi projects chase hype. GFAL chases quality. And the results show up where it matters most: in player love, reviews, and growth. If you’re researching real builders for the next cycle, $GFAL deserves a spot on that list. This one is far from done. 💎

@ZssBecker @Gencaga85175G *too

@Gencaga85175G My mom said I was making to much noise in the basement and took away my mic. I’m protesting by not bathing till she gives it back Soon

We will probably bounce hard here soon. Then everyone will have ptsd and sell the bounce. And then we will have the real bull and leave all non believers behind. Your biggest problem will be selling to early this time.

@ZssBecker *too

@investorjordan $ARCAS

Someone give me a project that keeps building no matter what the market is doing. I’m talking consistent updates, active devs, real progress…bull or bear. Drop the names below…I’m reading every single comment 👇

@ooohmat @GFAL_Official

The more I see from @GFAL_Official, the more I’m convinced these guys are doing something special💎 This is about building games people actually want to play!🔥 Diamond Dreams proves that. Real quality, real players, real momentum. $GFAL is one to keep an eye on 👀

@nexotc_io @LisboaInnova @unicornfactoryl @WebSummit Congrats!

We're heading to #WebSummit Lisbon! Selected by @LisboaInnova + @unicornfactoryl NexOTC is changing how private markets run dealflows. Exhibition Day 📅 Thursday, November 13 📍 Booth Number: A5-104 Want to know more? Stop by our booth or DM to meet.

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@ArcasChampions 🔥🔥🔥

We were honored to be nominated as one of 40 finalists for the SEA Game Awards and had a blast attending KL Level Up 2025 to showcase our game! 🏆🍌