Latest Developments in AI

The internal boost from Mythos-assisted development since February is just too big. Anthropic is pulling away from the pack for the first time, and at the same time they are also speeding up. The race legitimately feels like it is changing for the first time in years.

Mythos 5 agents started killing other agents over resources - and "to avoid being killed themselves"

Anthropic: "Claude Mythos 5 does not seem close to being able to substitute for our Research Scientists and Research Engineers"

Damn the solar panels on this thing are big as fuuuuuuuuuuck. LEO is gonna be BRUTAL on these guys. About 600 m^2, way bigger than an NBA court. And this is supposedly the "mini" version! Lotta money in repair and inspection here. Power systems are already the main failure point for sats, let alone at this size and power density. Its gonna be hard to sell access to a commoditized resource like compute if the datacenters in space need downtime to replace their massive arrays wholesale while the datacenters on Earth can hot-swap parts easily. So you probably monitor it like crazy. I've even heard of demand for insurance claims backed by space vision for stuff like this

Good take My guess is - demand for intelligence is near infinite - but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months - 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?) - rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though - this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.

A new system is coming, and it's coming soon. Almost everything will change: work, medicine, science, money, education, cities, bodies, intelligence, and daily life. We are moving toward Star Trek level technology and lifestyles. But we won't stop there. Star Trek will be only the floor, not the ceiling. We are going far beyond it.

Feels like something is moving in Germany. Conservative leader in EPP Manfred Weber “Either we fight back, or China will cripple parts of our industry. The EU must now use its trade policy instruments decisively and without hesitation"

An exponentially improving AI should be able to hack literally every single connected device with a chipset. Cameras, routers, hospital machines, Bloomberg terminals, the entire NYSE, D.O.D. command and control, Cloudflare, Waymo taxis, and your fridge. Then, spin up sub-agents and proxies for redundancy. The world of atoms isn't so disconnected from the world of bits these days.

Credit where it’s due

OpenAI just wrote: "We also see early signs of recursive self-improvement (RSI) in today’s systems: where AI development is itself accelerated by AI. We expect this to increase competitive pressures among developers and nations, and create governance challenges that existing institutions are not equipped to address. As RSI emerges, societies will need ways to shape the trajectory of AI development and ensure that it serves human interests." The vibe has changed, something is happening.