Jacob Neiheisel

@TheJoeBeamer When you end up being wrong in 2/3 of the contests where the outcome was seriously in doubt, that’s a method that doesn’t work a majority of the time.

Allan Lichtman’s keys were always stupid.

@ndrewwhitehead Depending on the media market it could also be a MI or OH-focused buy. We still get a handful of ads here in WNY but I’ve always thought that they are targeted towards two counties in PA that happen to be in the Buffalo market.

@bdtamas I think I said some variant of that to the reporter. Not sure it comes off that way in the article itself, but my response was channeling the Herron and Lewis piece on Nader.

2/ While I agree with Neiheisel that neither Perot in 1992 nor Stein in 2016 spoiled the election, it is clear to me that Nader swung the election to Bush in 2000

There are several points of convergence with fellow academics whom this Salon article also quotes. (And there are some differences as well.) salon.com/2024/02/04/exp… @julia_azari @JacobNeiheisel ...1/

@adam_m_auerbach @SAISHopkins @JohnsHopkins @AmericanU Congrats!

Why is likability so critical to getting elected? I spoke with @danataylormix on @USATODAY's The Excerpt podcast on why it matters, and shared my advice for the 2024 presidential candidates. art19.com/shows/5-things…

@HeyRaChaCha To be clear, I don’t love that campaigns do this either, but I have no evidence of backlash effects or the like that result from its use.

@JacobNeiheisel Thank you, knowledgeable sir! Will be fascinated to see the results on Tuesday.

Erie County Democrats must be freaking out about turnout this election. My neighbor got a mailer shaming his voting record. He's spent extended periods out of town in recent years, which have affected his voting.

@HeyRaChaCha People flip out about this tactic pretty regularly, but campaigns do this because there is some evidence that it "works" on average. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

And now my other neighbor got a "D". Let's just say that getting a mailer from the Democratic Party telling her she's a failure as a voter is not succeeding in putting her in a good frame of mind to actually go vote for Democrats.

@TheJoeBeamer Many. I’m very sad to see the place go.

Tomorrow is the last day of this Eastern Hills Mall anchor store, any good finds here over the years?

@BrandonWarmke Michael Lee’s Creating Conservatism might be a good option.

Soon I'll teach an undergrad course on "Three Ideologies." The goal is to understand liberalism, socialism, and conservatism as best we can. I'm asking for your recommendations about what undergrad accessible articles or books we should read. Please share. I want your best 🙏

@_SweetJennys @howardcadmus I can’t wait to try them.

As a follow up to the post about vintage Star Wars molds the boys found over the summer, we've got these insanely large and incredibly delicious pieces for sale at $19.99 a piece.

@RJHJR Welcome home!

365 days ago I pulled onto Hilton Head Island with 3 cases of wine, 2 Newfoundland dogs and 10 days worth of clothes - two weeks ahead of moving trucks - Today I returned home for just the 4th time . Go Bills!

@ophiryotam At least you got the real Room Rater treatment. My only interaction of this nature came from the short-lived Buffalo Room Rater account.

@LeticiaBode I figured, but thought that I would offer to dig them out. Good luck!

@LeticiaBode I don’t have transcripts, but I think I still have a lot of the videos from the old newslab project we ran at Wisconsin if those would help. They’re from 2008 though.

If the end times and conflict with the forces of evil are coming, what is a person to do? Prepare! In OA research at @PandRJournal @adkinsjm @PaulDjupe & @JacobNeiheisel find a tight link between apocalyptic beliefs and prepping incl stockpiling guns. religioninpublic.blog/2023/09/29/pre…

@ntdPhD See, for me it's when I open a dataset of truly modest proportions and it takes a good bit of time to execute any commands whatsoever. Good thing I'm due for a new computer in only a couple of years.

@ntdPhD @drsteveu Democratic Values failed? Seriously?

@ProfDevine Of course. Happy to help. I’ve seen some economists use that measure as well.

@JacobNeiheisel That’s an excellent idea! Thank you, Jacob.

Data q (#poliscitwitter?): I'm testing effects of economy/prosperity on presidential vote in 1924 @ *county level.* Ideas on data sources? Trad. measures (e.g., unemp/GDP ) ideal, but don't think they existed then (again, COUNTY). So far, only have FDIC data on bank deposits.

“Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo, buffalo Buffalo buffalo.” The above sentence actually means something and is grammatically correct. Come with us on this journey where the buffalo roam.