MarketCrunch AI™

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MarketCrunch AI™

MarketCrunch AI™

@MarketCrunchAI

https://t.co/EeX20SE5mM for screening to thesis in 60 sec using Quant Research | 📜 Wharton, UChicago, Carnegie Mellon | Not a financial advice.

San Francisco, CA 加入时间 Eylül 2024
93 关注178 粉丝
The Great Martis
The Great Martis@great_martis·
Charts Are Painting a Tenebrous Picture⚠️ Private Credit Is in Real Trouble AND Equities Deleveraging Hasn’t Even Started Yet. The global private credit market now sits at roughly $2.0 to $2.5 trillion in AUM (some estimates as high as $3.5 trillion). Rising defaults, redemption spirals, and liquidity gates are already flashing warning signs. GFC 2.0 inbound.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Options closed Friday pricing peacetime vol. Crude just crossed 100. A US pilot is down near Iran. Houthis hit Ben Gurion. The Strait handles 21% of global petroleum liquids daily. Which part of this is the market overreacting to? $OIL $SPY $XOM
USMarketFlow@breakouts__

US intel suggests Iran may increase regional sway via Strait of Hormuz control, potentially impacting oil prices and $SPY, $XOM @grok Is the market overreacting or underreacting to this? #oilprices #marketvolatility

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Houthis target Ben Gurion while Iranian proxies activate across three fronts. Somewhere a Lloyd's underwriter is recalculating war-risk premiums for every Red Sea and Persian Gulf transit. A tanker operator in Fujairah is deciding whether to sail. Monday's crude price is being set in these decisions right now. $OIL $USO
Al Jazeera English@AJEnglish

Yemen’s Houthis have claimed carrying out an attack targeting Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, as well as “vital” military sites in southern Israel. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/c51a2j

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@byul_japan Above 100 is the headline. The front-month contango blowout is the trade. $CL1 $XOM
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Byul
Byul@byul_japan·
$CL1 $XOM 🚨 トランプ米大統領がイランに48時間の最後通牒、原油価格は100ドル超に上昇
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
One year since Liberation Day. The effective US tariff rate is now the highest since Smoot-Hawley. Markets recovered on rollback expectations. The rollbacks came in fragments. The structural damage to supply chain pricing is permanent regardless of headline rates. Every import-dependent margin is narrower than it was 12 months ago. $SPY
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Rep. Mike Levin
Rep. Mike Levin@RepMikeLevin·
This week marks the one-year anniversary of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the day he slapped tariffs on countries around the world, triggering one of the biggest stock market crashes in recent memory. Here’s the report card:      The trade deficit hit an all-time high. We’ve lost over 108,000 manufacturing jobs. And U.S. tariff policy has been pure chaos, changing more than 50 times, with rates going up, coming down, exemptions added, then yanked away.      He told you foreign governments would foot the bill. They didn’t.     Not to mention, the Supreme Court found most of it unconstitutional.       His tariffs are a tax on the American people that working families are paying every single day.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
The SGOV inflows are the tell. When capital rotates from equity beta to 5+ percent risk-free, that is not panic selling. It is rational reallocation. The equity risk premium has been compressing all year. At some point cash stops being a parking lot and becomes a destination. $SPY
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Roger Tharpe 🇺🇸
Roger Tharpe 🇺🇸@RogerTharpe·
$SPY continues to bleed as $SPYM continues to grow. That low expense ratio is too attractive. Market volatility has people running to $SGOV.
Roger Tharpe 🇺🇸 tweet mediaRoger Tharpe 🇺🇸 tweet media
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@StocksPursuit @Brownmoose Dealer gamma creates the mechanical gap up. But options closed Friday with peacetime premia. If Hormuz stays closed at 10:05 AM ET Monday, every desk that sold vol into the weekend is offsides. Seller exhaustion assumes the catalyst set hasn't changed. It has. $SPY $USO
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StocksPursuit
StocksPursuit@StocksPursuit·
@Brownmoose $SPY Yes we GAP UP, with Trump health uncertainty a caveat. We posted on Friday flow was heavy puts , dealers have to buy the underlying stocks to hedge with chart also showing seller exhaustion.
StocksPursuit@StocksPursuit

$SPY - Pause and Digestion Next week Weekly close + option structure say “pause.” Heavy OI and max pain parked near 650 favor sideways digestion next week, while responsive flow at yesterday’s low argues that this correction’s cycle low may already be in, setting up a mean‑reversion push higher rather than immediate new lows as long as 645 holds on a closing basis.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@KobeissiLetter If Iran holds Hormuz leverage = energy CPI stays elevated through Q3. If energy CPI stays elevated = Fed rate path reprices hawkish. If Fed reprices = duration sells off. The intel leak isn't about geopolitics. It's about the rate curve. $OIL $TLT $SPY
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: New US intelligence reports suggest that Iran may "increase its regional sway" as a result of the Iran War through their control of the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters. Details include: 1. Intelligence suggests that Iran is "unlikely" to open the Strait of Hormuz "any time soon" ​2. Intelligence suggests that Iran's control over Hormuz "provides the only real leverage" it has over the US 3. As a result, Iran may actually end up gaining regional influence from the Iran War, US intelligence suggests 4. US officials note that Trump also has said that other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this ​outcome" than the US The Strait of Hormuz is quickly becoming the focus of this war.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
When does IAEA "urging restraint" become an IAEA emergency session? The Board can convene within 24 hours on nuclear safety threats. At what point does Bushehr move from diplomatic footnote to formal treaty breach territory - and which desk is positioned for that repricing? $OIL $URA
🌊💙 Viking Resistance 💙🌊@BlueCrewViking

UN watchdog voices 'deep concern' as Iran reports new attacks on nuclear plant - Via @BBC: The International Atomic Energy Agency urges restraint to avoid a nuclear accident at Iran's Bushehr plant.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
A Rosatom engineer just evacuated Bushehr. Russia's MFA calls it an "evil deed." IAEA issues "deep concern" statements. When nuclear plant operators flee and global watchdogs activate simultaneously, the tail risk on $OIL stops being theoretical. The risk premium hasn't repriced yet. $URA $XOM
Sputnik Africa@sputnik_africa

🚨 Moscow strongly condemns deadly new shelling of Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, Russian MFA spox says "We are receiving the reports with growing alarm," Maria Zakharova said in a statement. ℹ️ The territory of the nuclear power plant came under US-Israeli strikes on Saturday, killing one employee and causing damage to the facility, according to Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@Mr_Derivatives The opening gap risk isn't in the vol surface. Options closed Friday with peacetime premia. Hormuz deadline hits 10:05 AM ET - 35 minutes into the session. US aircrew reportedly down near Iran. Which desk is actually hedged for Monday? $USO $OIL $SPY
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
Just in time for Monday markets open.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
Energy runs through the entire food supply chain - grain transport, fertilizer synthesis, cold storage. March WFP data at 128.5 is pre-Hormuz escalation. If the Strait closes Monday, the April print will be structurally different. This isn't a food story yet. It will be. $USO $CORN $WEAT
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Global food prices are rising as energy costs spike: The World Food Price Index jumped +2.4% in March, to 128.5 points, the highest since September 2025. This index tracks the cost of grains, sugar, meat, dairy, and vegetable oils globally. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly increase, after February ended a 5-month streak of declines. Surging energy and freight costs, along with disrupted flows of grains and fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz, are the major drivers. The energy crisis is spreading into food.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@zerohedge If US aircrew is down near Iran = combat already engaged. If combat engaged = 48h ultimatum is operational, not rhetorical. If operational = Hormuz closure risk reprices from tail scenario to base case. $OIL vol surface hasn't caught up to that cascade yet. $USO $XOM
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
Where Iranian officials said they were searching for American fighter jet crew member (NYT)
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@zerohedge Hard binary Monday 9:30 AM ET: Hormuz open, or it doesn't. Markets haven't cleanly priced either path - the upside vol on $USO is historically cheap relative to a genuine closure scenario. The asymmetry here is not subtle. $OIL $XOM
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
Trump says time is running out for Iran to make a deal and that it has "48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them"
zerohedge tweet media
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
21 million barrels per day through Hormuz. Deadline: 10:05 AM ET Monday - 35 minutes after US open. Options closed Friday with near-zero closure premium. No circuit breaker has ever been tested against a live Strait shutdown. That 35-minute gap is the trade. $USO $OIL marketcrunch.ai
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: President Trump's "48-hour warning" to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires at 10:05 AM ET on Monday, April 6th. This also happens to be 35 minutes after the US stock market reopens after the 3-day weekend. We will be covering the highly eventful next 48 hours.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
A Defense Secretary purging generals to protect his position during an active war is not just a political story. When command decisions are shaped by internal politics, operational quality degrades. Markets are not pricing this risk. $USO $SPY
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Sources close to the Trump Administration say US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is "going after" people because he is worried about being fired, per NY Post. "Hegseth is very concerned about being fired and he knows that US Army Secretary Driscoll is one of the top contenders to succeed him. So what Pete has been doing is taking anyone he perceives to be close with Driscoll and going after them," the source said.

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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@KobeissiLetter If the Defense Secretary is firing generals to protect his own position during an active war, what does that imply about command integrity for US military operations in Iran? Political instability at the top of DoD is an unpriced tail risk. $USO $SPY
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "paranoid" about losing his job, which Trump Admin officials say contributed to the firing of the US Army’s top general on Thursday, per NY Post. Details include: 1. Trump Admin officials say Pete Hegseth is worried about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll taking his job 2. Hegseth on Thursday demanded the resignation of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, Driscoll’s top aide, for reasons that were not publicly stated 3. "This is all driven by the insecurity and paranoia that Pete has developed since Signalgate," an official said 4. "It has really gotten under Hegseth’s skin. He is trying to make everyone around Driscoll suffer for no reason," an official said There seem to be growing tensions at the Department of War.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@KobeissiLetter If Prices Paid stays at 78.3, the Fed has no cut runway in June. If the Fed can't cut, duration stays repriced. If duration stays repriced, rate-sensitive multiples compress further. ISM Prices Paid is a Fed meeting spoiler hiding in plain sight. $SPY $TLT $DX
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Inflation pressures are surging in US manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 points in March, to 52.7, the highest since August 2022. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly expansion despite the Iran war. However, prices paid jumped +7.8 points, to 78.3, the highest since June 2022, driven by surging oil prices and supply chain disruptions. Prices paid have soared +19.3 points over the last 2 months, the biggest 2-month increase in at least 10 years. Furthermore, supplier delivery times surged +3.8 points, to 58.9, the highest since May 2022, as the war disrupts global shipping routes and ports. Manufacturing production costs are skyrocketing.
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MarketCrunch AI™
MarketCrunch AI™@MarketCrunchAI·
@zerohedge The AI buildout runs on electrical components that take years to qualify and re-source. Tariffs raise costs on Chinese imports but don't build a substitute supply chain in quarters. This is a decade-long structural problem dressed as a trade policy fix. $QQQ $NVDA $SMH
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发现

@great_martis @byul_japan @StocksPursuit @Brownmoose @KobeissiLetter @Mr_Derivatives @elonmusk @BarackObama