Oliver Raynor
389 posts
@OliverRaynor_
UK Power & Gas markets | Wholesale trends | Geopolitics | Pricing risk | Commercially focused | Data-driven
A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
🚨🚨🚨 ISRAEL JUST MADE THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS MILITARY DECISION OF THE ENTIRE WAR. AND NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨🚨🚨 Israel and the U.S. struck South Pars — the LARGEST gas field on the planet. But here's what they either didn't know or didn't care about: South Pars is jointly managed by Iran AND Qatar. They didn't just attack Iran. They attacked the energy backbone of their OWN Gulf allies. Let that sink in. 💀 The IRGC just declared ALL major energy facilities across the entire GCC as "direct and legitimate targets" — and warned strikes are coming in the "COMING HOURS." 💀 Listed targets: Qatar's LNG complex, Saudi Aramco facilities, UAE oil terminals — EVERYTHING. 💀 Saudi Aramco has already EVACUATED workers from the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu. They're not waiting. They KNOW what's coming. 💀 Iranian hackers have ALREADY hit Aramco's digital systems — posting images and issuing threats to PARALYZE their infrastructure. 💀 Multiple EXPLOSIONS just heard in Riyadh — confirmed by Reuters, AFP, and AP. Sirens sounding in the Saudi capital. Do you understand the scale of what's happening? ⚠️ Qatar's LNG complex is the LARGEST on Earth. It supplies 30% of the world's liquefied natural gas. If Iran hits it — Europe's heating supply DISAPPEARS overnight. Not in months. OVERNIGHT. ⚠️ Saudi Aramco is the most valuable company on the PLANET — worth $1,800,000,000,000. Its refineries process 12 MILLION barrels per day. One successful strike takes 10% of the world's oil OFFLINE. ⚠️ In 2019, a SINGLE drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day and sent oil up 15% in ONE session. Iran now has 10x the motivation and NOTHING left to lose. They're showing you "precision strikes on Iranian targets." They're NOT showing you that those strikes just gave Iran the JUSTIFICATION to destroy every oil facility from Qatar to Saudi Arabia to the UAE. Here's the logic — follow it carefully: → You bomb a gas field that's JOINTLY OWNED with Qatar → Qatar — your own Gulf ally — publicly condemns you → Iran uses the attack as justification to target ALL Gulf energy → IRGC formally declares Gulf facilities as "legitimate targets" → Aramco starts EVACUATING refineries → Explosions hit RIYADH → You didn't weaken Iran. You gave them the excuse to burn down the ENTIRE Gulf's economy. If this was a "strategic victory," why is Aramco evacuating workers RIGHT NOW? If Iran's military is "degraded," why are 6 Gulf nations scrambling to protect their oil fields from an attack they believe is IMMINENT? Complete silence. You don't evacuate the world's most valuable company unless you KNOW what's coming. The IRGC said "coming hours." Not days. Not weeks. HOURS. And every Gulf state just went from spectator to TARGET. This is no longer a war between the U.S. and Iran. This is a war that's about to ERASE the Gulf's entire energy infrastructure — the infrastructure that powers HALF the planet. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 They don't want you seeing this. Follow + RT to beat the algorithm. 🚨
The Israeli targeting of facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars field, an extension of Qatar’s North Field, is a dangerous & irresponsible step amid the current military escalation in the region. Targeting energy infrastructure constitutes a threat to global energy security, as well as to the peoples of the region & its environment. We reiterate, as we have repeatedly emphasized, the necessity of avoiding the targeting of vital facilities. We call on all parties to exercise restraint, adhere to international law, & work toward de-escalation in a manner that preserves the security & stability of the region.
