SetProb

Introducing SetProb 🎾 A statistical probability model for ATP, WTA and Challenger tennis matches. No tips. No gut feel. Just data. Full accuracy history published at setprob.com

@atptour @alexdeminaur @QueensTennis Nobody scrambles and takes control of a grass court rally quite like Alex de Minaur. Peak Demon right here! 🔥

Out. Of. This. World. 🤯 @alexdeminaur has the final say in this enthralling exchange! @QueensTennis | #HSBCChampionships

SetProb Model Watch Jun 17 👀 Terra Wortmann Open Halle (Grass) D. Medvedev (76%) to WIN vs T. Atmane T. Fritz (73%) to WIN vs Z. Bergs B. Shelton (76%) to WIN vs L. Sonego HSBC Championships London (Grass) A. De Minaur (71%) to WIN vs D. Shapovalov Nottingham 2 Challenger (Grass) O. Virtanen (68%) to WIN vs F. Gill Parma Challenger (Clay) L. Djere (67%) to WIN vs R. Seggerman M. Cecchinato (62%) to WIN vs F. Bondioli #ATP #Tennispicks

@josemorgado A brutal introduction to grass for João Fonseca, and Yannick Hanfmann puts on an absolute clinic.

Wow. Yannick Hanfmann defeats João Fonseca 6-2, 6-2 in 65 minutes to reach the second round in Halle. An absolute tennis class on grass. That was... not a good grass debut for the 19yo in 2026.

Radar Finalized June 16 📡 A. Zverev (68%) vs V. Kopriva → WON ✅ A. De Minaur (73%) vs G. Diallo → WON ✅ K. Khachanov (64%) vs E. Quinn → LOST ❌ A. Rublev (62%) vs H. Hurkacz → LOST ❌ J. Fonseca (60%) vs Y. Hanfmann → LOST ❌ Y. Bu (71%) vs O. Virtanen → CANCELLED 🚫 M. Lajal (70%) vs U. Blanchet → CANCELLED 🚫

On the Radar June 16 📡 Terra Wortmann Open Halle (Grass) A. Zverev (68%) to WIN vs V. Kopriva K. Khachanov (64%) to WIN vs E. Quinn A. Rublev (62%) to WIN vs H. Hurkacz J. Fonseca (60%) to WIN vs Y. Hanfmann HSBC Championships London (Grass) A. De Minaur (73%) to WIN vs G. Diallo Nottingham 2 Challenger (Grass) Y. Bu (71%) to WIN vs O. Virtanen Dublin Challenger (Grass) M. Lajal (70%) to WIN vs U. Blanchet #ATP #Tennispicks

System Wide Report Jun 16💻 E. Ymer (60%) to WIN vs H. Searle → LOSS

System Wide Report Jun 15💻 L. Tien (78%) to WIN vs M. Schoenhaus → WIN ✅ T. Maria (59%) to WIN vs J. Tjen → WIN ✅ T. Paul (55%) to WIN vs Z. Svajda → WIN ✅ M. Landaluce (61%) to WIN vs T. Atmane → LOSS H. Rocha (60%) to WIN vs C. O'Connell → LOSS A. Blinkova (59%) to WIN vs T. Preston → LOSS E. Ymer (60%) to WIN vs H. Searle → Rescheduled

System Wide Selections 💻 Jun 15 Terra Wortmann Open Halle (Grass) L. Tien (78%) to WIN vs M. Schoenhaus M. Landaluce (61%) to WIN vs T. Atmane Nottingham 2 Challenger (Grass) H. Rocha (60%) to WIN vs C. O'Connell Dublin Challenger (Grass) E. Ymer (60%) to WIN vs H. Searle Lexus Nottingham Open (Grass) T. Maria (59%) to WIN vs J. Tjen A.Blinkova (59%) to WIN vs T. Preston HSBC Championships London (Grass) T. Paul (55%) to WIN vs Z. Svajda #ATP #WTA #Tennispicks

@ATPChallenger From Birmingham to Ilkley, an unbelievable two-week stretch. The adaptation to the grass has been flawless. Massive achievement.

Back to back grass-court titles 🏆🌱 Just one week after becoming the first Chinese player to win a grass-court title, Yunchaokete Bu lifts the trophy in Ilkley! #ATPChallenger

SetProb Weekly Performance Tracker: Jun 8 - Jun 14 🎾 X Post Accuracy: 35–12 (74.5%) Model Overall Record: 227–124 (64.7%) Model Tier Breakdown: 65%+ Strong: 23–10 (69.7%) 60-64% Moderate: 72–33 (68.6%) 55-59% Close: 132–81 (62.0%) #TennisPicks

SetProb Featured Slate Results Jun 14 🏟️ A. Blinkova (65%) to WIN vs A. Bondar → WIN ✅ Z. Sonmez (64%) to WIN vs H. Klugman → WIN ✅ Z. Zhang (64%) to WIN vs O. Okonkwo → WIN ✅ J. De Jong (63%) to WIN vs R. Carballes Baena →WIN✅ L. Ambrogi (63%) to WIN vs J. Rodriguez → WIN ✅ M. Landaluce (57%) to WIN vs T. Gentzsch → WIN ✅ A. De Minaur (60%) to WIN vs K. Majchrzak → LOSS

SetProb Featured Slate Jun 14 🏟️ Lexus Nottingham Open (Grass) A. Blinkova (65%) to WIN vs A. Bondar Z. Sonmez (64%) to WIN vs H. Klugman Nottingham 2 Challenger (Grass) Z. Zhang (64%) to WIN vs O. Okonkwo Cattolica Challenger (Clay) J. De Jong (63%) to WIN vs R. Carballes Baena San Miguel de Tucuman Challenger (Clay) L. Ambrogi (63%) to WIN vs J. Rodriguez Libema Open (Grass) A. De Minaur (60%) to WIN vs K. Majchrzak Halle Open (Grass) M. Landaluce (57%) to WIN vs T. Gentzsch #ATP #WTA #Tennispicks

@ATPChallenger Congratulations to de Jong on a dominant week at the Cattolica Challenger. Completely locked in from day one!

🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 The moment Jesper de Jong captured his fourth ATP Challenger title #ATPChallenger

@atptour @alexdeminaur @LibemaOpen When he gets into this rhythm on the grass, the coverage is just suffocating.

Total Demonation 😈 @alexdeminaur advances to his 21st tour-level final with a comprehensive straight sets victory over Mannarino! @LibemaOpen | #LibemaOpen

Heat Checked: Model on Fire 🔥Jun 13 B. Shelton (85%) to WIN vs S. Shimabukuro→ WIN✅ A. De Minaur (65%) to WIN vs A. Mannarino→ WIN ✅ S. Zhang (65%) to WIN vs M. Steinkamp WIN→ ✅ M. Bellucci (65%) to WIN vs M. Kukushkin WIN→ ✅ M. Landaluce (62%) to WIN vs M. Huesler WIN→ ✅ G. Mpetshi Perricard (62%) to WIN vs J. Monday→ WIN✅ N. Bartunkova (61%) to WIN vs N. Akugue Noha→ Cancelled

Heat Check Jun 13 🔥 Stuttgart Open (Grass) B. Shelton (85%) to WIN vs S. Shimabukuro Libéma Open (Grass) A. De Minaur (65%) to WIN vs A. Mannarino Berlin Tennis Open (Grass) S. Zhang (65%) to WIN vs M. Steinkamp Halle Open (Grass) M. Bellucci (65%) to WIN vs M. Kukushkin M. Landaluce (62%) to WIN vs M. Huesler HSBC Championships London (Grass) G. Mpetshi Perricard (62%) to WIN vs J. Monday Berlin Tennis Open (Grass) N. Bartunkova (61%) to WIN vs N. Akugue Noha #ATP #WTA #Tennispicks

@TennisTV @boss__open Fritz is refusing to let go of that Stuttgart crown! 👑

Fritz The FIGHTER 😤 The second seed continues his title defence with a hard-fought 5-7 7-5 7-5 win over Bellucci! @boss__open | #BOSSOpen

Algorithmic Spark Results Jun 12⚡ A. De Minaur (58%) to WIN vs B. Bonzi → WIN ✅ T. Fritz (61%) to WIN vs M. Bellucci → WIN ✅ E. Rybakina (61%) to WIN vs T. Maria → WIN ✅ A. Shevchenko (60%) to WIN vs M. Mrva → WIN ✅ D. Jorda Sanchis (59%) to WIN vs D. Blanch → WIN ✅ L. Romero Gormaz (76%) to WIN vs V. Jimenez Kasintseva → LOSS F. Auger Aliassime (62%) to WIN vs K. Majchrzak→ LOSS

Algorithmic Spark Jun 12⚡ Modena Challenger (Clay) L. Romero Gormaz (76%) to WIN vs V. Jimenez Kasintseva Libéma Open (Grass) F. Auger Aliassime (62%) to WIN vs K. Majchrzak A. De Minaur (58%) to WIN vs B. Bonzi Stuttgart Open (Grass) T. Fritz (61%) to WIN vs M. Bellucci HSBC Championships London (Grass) E. Rybakina (61%) to WIN vs T. Maria Bratislava Challenger (Clay) A. Shevchenko (60%) to WIN vs M. Mrva Lyon Challenger (Clay) D. Jorda Sanchis (59%) to WIN vs D. Blanch #ATP #WTA #Tennispicks

@ATPChallenger Once he got through that marathon tiebreak, it was total cruise control.

Full focus 💪 Aleksandr Shevchenko advances to his first semifinal of the season with a 7-6(9), 6-0 win over Mrva in Bratislava #ATPChallenger