Ninety three today. I'm not about to start tweeting again, but look forward to the fascinating politics of the coming year.
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Sir David Butler
83 posts
Sir David Butler
@SirDavidButler
Veteran psephologist. BBC Election Night broadcaster 1950 - 1979, then radio and press to 2010. Pioneer of swingometer and swing theory. Author of 30+ books.
Oxford, England 加入时间 Mayıs 2017
75 关注10.5K 粉丝
Learning to tweet at 92 has been fun. But my musings should now be confined to elections, so I am signing off . . . until next year?
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I have enjoyed my flirtation with Tweeting – and thank you for all the feedback. It’s wonderful to rediscover one is never too old to learn.
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Parliament emerges "weak and unstable" after the snap election.
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Unlike 74 though, this time the Opposition will probably want a new vote.
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Wilson ran a minority govt for 8 months in 74. It's hard to see a May govt lasting any longer now.
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Significantly more variation in swing this time both by region and amount than in any post-war election.
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Sir David Butler 已转推
**In the betting markets Jeremy Corbyn is now favourite to be the next Prime Minister of Britain**
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@stephenkb @patrickkmaguire Hasn't one already gone to an Independent?
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15 Seats declared. Still none changed hands. Unusual. Can't last of course.
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No one yet pledging to eat their hat on the back of the exit poll.
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Higher youth turnout in Sunderland may hint at explaining Labour strength generally.
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Exit polls do not take in the last hour or more of real voting.
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Health warning about TV exit poll: 2015 and 92 both underestimated Conservative support
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If net poll forecasts of a 7-8% Tory lead are accurate, one would certainly expect an increased majority
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If there's an overall swing towards the Conservatives, their victory becomes v probable.
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The first 10 seats called usually give an accurate steer to the final outcome.
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Rain can play a part - but it’s small. Lab voters go to polls later, so evening showers potentially hurt Lab more.
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The polls have moved a great deal over the past two weeks. When people ask me for a prediction, I have to say I know that I don’t know.
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