Yield Curve

Predictable result.

I've been quiet long enough...Lakers on a 9 game win streak. A few more and I'll be insufferable after hooking myself up to the kool-aid IV

@ConvexityCowboy @sidprabhu No everyone is a posh cnvts like you 😉

@TenYearNote @sidprabhu Would have said a proper rogering or simply proper entertainment

In City of London, there is a technical term-of-art for what's going on in the rates market: A Proper Fucking.

@izakaminska Most of twitter wondering, "what's the long room"?

Okay. So I genuinely did pitch Paul Murphy last year on the idea of turning the old virtual Long Room (which was based on the real Long Room) back into a city hangout sports bar type venue. Or coffee shop 2.0. Basic line of thinking was that finance journalism has to get more people oriented to compete with AI. I was going to have a special reading room where you could come and peruse the daily Substack and analyst pieces (all printed out) that you can’t afford to sign up to individually on the condition you leave your phone at the door. Alas the capital poor will never be able to execute any of their commercial visions, but instead be forced to grow organically forever more.

“It’s hard to ascribe the motives to individuals, but if the market interprets that they’re reacting in a political way…I think that is very dangerous grounds,” said former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who was one of three dissenters at a 2016 policy meeting."

"...that such a split has become plausible, meeting after meeting, marks a shift that threatens to outlast any single vote. The significance isn’t the vote margin—it’s that all three are appointees of a president who is publicly demanding lower rates."

Fintwit archive, 2018.

BDC Software Exposure A HF friend of mine had his analyst go through the 10-K's of the top 22 public BDCs. The analyst used Pitchbook and Claude to categorize every loan by industry. According to their findings, $OTF had highest software exposure 55% by Pitchbook and 65% by Claude .. not surprising at all. But 2nd biggest exposure to software was $TSLX at 46% by Pitchbook and 57% by Claude .. pretty surprising. Do your own work but transparency is coming to PC one way or another. I don't have positions in either $OTF or $TSLX.

I don't think Martin Wolf has said anything substantive or worthwhile in over a decade. It's time to find a new chief economics commentator at the @FT

Media: No Motive Yet In Attack On Jewish Synagogue By Radical Muslim buff.ly/vCkoC4L

@DanielSLoeb1 @pinkhasov

Bernie do you know the Parsha of the week ?

S&P BB+ or Lower Default Rates 1990 8.10% Too much HY owned by SnL's 1991 11.02% 1992 6.10% 2000 6.21% Misallocation of capital in TMT 2001 9.70% 2002 9.35% 2008 3.71% Resi/Comm RE and Fins 2009 9.89% 2010 3.02% Next cycle probably not a repeat of '08 .. my bet would be it looks more like '90

81 for Bam…….

@pinkhasov whatever.

Now that things are becoming more rational in Korea, I think its important to note that the secular downtrend in the dollar is far from over. I think Korea still suffers from overweight contribution of memory stocks, but commodity-rich EM on a relative basis might do okay.

Fintwit archive, 2019.

Just how high could oil go? ft.trib.al/Fy4PIGS

Happy 50th Birthday to a legend. As Tupac would say himself 'People die but legends live forever' #Tupac 'Cause any day they'll push the button And all come in like Malcolm X or Bobby Hutton' #WestSide

Ayatollah To Give Speech As Soon As Officials Find The Rest Of His Body buff.ly/6N1jGQr

Iranian Generals Kicking Themselves For Not Just Meeting Over Zoom buff.ly/Lgm7cUI