The Institutional Edge

Stop guessing and stop trading the news. If you want an edge in this market, you have to track where institutions are quietly moving their capital. Here is a full breakdown of how I use @prospero_ai Net Options Sentiment (NOS) to follow the money. 👇

Market/Macro Update Volatility has returned to Wall Street in full force as the market digests severe headline whiplash. Any lingering hopes for a swift diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East were completely shattered following the latest address indicating a prolonged and aggressive kinetic approach over the coming weeks. This stark reality check sent U.S. crude surging right back over the $110-a-barrel threshold, instantly reigniting the geopolitical premium and the persistent threat of “higher for longer” inflation. The major indices initially took a heavy hit on the news, but we are seeing stocks aggressively pare those early morning losses as the session grinds on, leaving the broader tape mixed. This intense intraday chop perfectly validates the extreme defensive posturing we continue to see in our options sentiment data. The “smart money” never fully bought into the ceasefire hype earlier this week; they kept their downside hedges locked in tight, anticipating exactly this kind of geopolitical reversal. Underneath the volatile surface, we are seeing some fascinating rotations. As outlined in the Cap Analysis below, Small Caps are stepping up to lead the way today after a highly erratic week, battling it out with Large Cap Growth for weekly leadership. From a sector perspective, Energy is naturally catching a bid again as crude spikes, while Real Estate continues to act as a quiet, lower-volatility safe haven for long exposure in this highly unpredictable tape.

@zerohedge They are wreaking of desperation. ChatGPT had all the name recognition, but they are falling behind and most people don't trust the company or the CEO.

*OPENAI BUYS TECH-INDUSTRY TALK SHOW TBPN: WSJ

@TrendSpider GOOG is at the top of the @prospero_ai short term bull list today. Looks like institutions are also starting to trust it.

$GOOG in the buy zone do you trust the pullback or chase the breakout

Big money is still playing defense today. Broad market flow remains bearish, with both Tech ($XLK) and Industrials ($XLI) struggling down in the teens. Energy ($XLE) is still the undeniable leader, sitting strong at a 46 NOS. But here is the interesting divergence: while the broader tech sector looks weak, individual names like $AMZN and $GOOG are quietly creeping up our short-term bull lists. And as I mentioned yesterday, $META is back on top of our long-term bull list. The playbook? Stay heavy in Energy, but start watching those specific mega-caps for relative strength.

@MoneyMarkStocks @FugaziResearch @reverselong The report is basically a "takedown" of Mark. Just reposting most of the SEC investigation. It's almost like they have no real research to show why the stock is doing well so deflect the blame to Mark for spreading it to his followers.

Apparently @FugaziResearch took down their short report on $WATT during my Live rebuttal. I'd love to discuss it (professionally) with David @reverselong and his team at the time & place of their choosing. Stories change. I was a bear on this one, but now I'm a bull BECAUSE OF THE RESEARCH. More at 2PM on my YouTube channel ! youtube.com/live/9BzA4p22C… 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟑𝟎-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐯𝐞𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐂𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝟐𝐏𝐌! Join our 1O,OOO global followers... on Stock Talk Live! tinyurl.com/MoneyMarkLive 🔥𝟏𝟓 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟒𝟎% 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬!!🔥 NO LOSING PICKS since MAY... of LAST year! What do you expect from the analyst who helped Wall Street navigate the Internet bubble? $AEHR, $ALAR, $AMPL, $ARAAF, $ATGN, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DRSHF, $ECOR $GAIA, $GDXJ, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $SLV, $SMCI, $SNES, $TPCS, $TSSI, $VOXR, $VTSI

@ShitcoArcher @MoneyMarkStocks @FugaziResearch @reverselong Oh they just reposted it a couple minutes ago. It was down.

@ShitcoArcher @MoneyMarkStocks @FugaziResearch @reverselong Link it

@unusual_whales Was this the master plan all along?

Gulf states consider new pipelines to avoid Strait of Hormuz, per FT

@KobeissiLetter You going to post the total daily loss or gains every time something happens? It's all fake money anyways, none is realized.

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase -$550 billion in market cap in 25 minutes as President Trump delivers his address to the nation on the Iran War.

More interesting when you look at the 1 week. I did not expect Healthcare to be so green. People hiding in Real Estate as well. Materials has been a good sector to target for long entry.

@zerohedge Senate always holds the house by its sack. No real backbone in leadership.

Johnson Caves To Thune On DHS Funding: Accepts Senate's Partial Bill That Ditches Voter ID, Leaves ICE Out In The Cold zerohedge.com/political/john…

Market/Macro Update Wall Street is experiencing a classic case of headline whiplash today. While the session initially kicked off with a notable relief rally on the back of geopolitical de-escalation news, we are already seeing that early momentum fade as the broader market begins to sell off intraday. Investors are quickly realizing that a single optimistic headline does not erase the complex macroeconomic reality we are still navigating. The primary anchor weighing on this market is the persistent cost of energy. Even with today’s diplomatic optimism causing Energy stocks to take a notable hit, crude oil remains stubbornly elevated near the $100-a-barrel mark. This keeps the “higher for longer” inflation threat very much alive and explains exactly why institutional sentiment—while finally showing some slight positive movement—remains firmly defensive overall. The “smart money” is not ready to drop its guard just yet. Underneath the choppy surface, however, there are some constructive pockets of rotation. Growth is currently leading the way across all market caps, with participation looking fairly equal across the board. Technology and Industrials are also showing notable relative strength, acting as the strongest sectors in the current tape. Meanwhile, the sharp pullback we are seeing in Energy today might actually present a compelling entry point; as long as crude remains pinned near $100, maintaining exposure to these names remains a prudent strategy for long-term portfolio protection.

日本には土地がない。小さな家に住んで、小さな車に乗る。 通勤は満員電車。どこ行っても人だらけで、心が少しずつ削られていく… だから海外の友人よ、頼む。 でかい家を見せてくれ。 でかい車を見せてくれ。 広大な大地と綺麗な自然を見せてくれ。 俺たちの心を癒してくれ…！

@donguriweb My 5 year old talks, plays, or watches something Godzilla related daily. I barely even knew much about Godzilla until about a year ago and now I am an expert lol. Biollante is my favorite character.

こりゃあアメリカ人もそうとうゴジラ好きだな…！

@MetalYoshi Heck yeah! IN-N-OUT is where its at. And yes I have had Whataburger and Steak n Shake or whatever its called. The beauty of IN-N-OUT is its simplicity, but yet it still has great taste without needing to be loaded with junk.

アメリカにはIn-out-burgerってゆう行列のできるハンバーガー屋があるんです。ハンバーガー界本当の王はマクドナルドではないんです。

@StokPix @zerohedge Well of course they aren't. Just like the social media companies. Both have positives and as we've seen proven over time now, negatives. Government I feel is the same. CA is taking initiatives "against" AI. People do like to focus on the positives though.

@TheInstEdgeAI @zerohedge When I said no one I was referring to the AI companies and the government.

More Than Half Of Americans Believe AI Will Do More Harm Than Good: Poll zerohedge.com/ai/more-half-a…

@zerohedge I guess it really depends on how much it takes over your life. I have found great uses for it, it is much better than Googling most things. That said, like anything, it can definitely take over your life and at the rate its being adopted could become a detriment.

@StokPix @zerohedge No one? Have you spoken to anyone outside of X/finance space? I find that to be the opposite in the real world. Most people hate AI.

@zerohedge There is definitely some truth in this headline. No one is talking about the negatives of AI and the positives are being oversold.

@AlphaApex_AI Well I guess we just have to wait and see who is right. You/Fugazi or Mark/Jon Hickman. The price is the ultimate decider. If in 6 months to one year the price is half then you were correct. If it's over $20 then you are wrong.

@TheInstEdgeAI 10+ YEARS is definitely not overnight... just pull a chart, a 10 year chart and take a good look at how bad this company truly is.

Mark is a long time pro who knows what he's doing. In this type of market it's important to pay attention to who you are listening to. Don't fall for fluff with no substance. Even in tough markets there are gems to find. Great analysis on $WATT

You are correct it is down from that one big pop, but overall the trend is the opposite. I get that, but as I said, if dilution is your only reason for disliking a company then you should just avoid any micro or small cap. Nobody loves dilution but that is how most small companies raise money. They aren't giant money makers yet. That doesn't mean their tech or whatever they produce isn't going to be successful. The company was crap before, you aren't wrong. Things can change.

@TheInstEdgeAI Sorry, I missed the part where is ripping??? 25% down since last week is definitely not ripping. I mean have you read the report??? It clearly states that the company mostly runs on dilution which was DEFINITELY confirmed by the company.